[-STAT-]

Let's go ahead and get the convo started.

Tip-off will be Friday evening at 7:10, glad this one is on Friday and even at a reasonable time. 

This will be the 2nd meeting ever between Kentucky-Troy, with the Wildcats winning in a non-con game at Rupp back in Nov. 2017.

Done a little research on Troy, this is their 3rd appearance ever in the NCAA Tournament. 

They do have the Sunbelt player of the year in Taylor Conerway, averaging around 15ppg, 5rpg, 5rpg but only a 28% shooter from 3. Offensively tho, it is really a struggle for them, only having the aforementioned Conerway, and another player averaging double figure scoring. Checking out their defensive numbers, hopefully a good sign Butler being back to take some of the pressure off of the others handling the ball, the Trojans force close to 15 turnovers per game, around 9 steals a game so that's something to look out for. 

If Kentucky can force them into some bad shots bc it looks like they're a poor 3 point shooting team, get out into some open transition looks, think we should be able to get the W by at least 12-16 points, but at this point in the season it is all about matchups, but I feel we have a great chance of moving onto the round of 32. 

What's everyone's thoughts & predictions?

[Old School Hound]

If you can't beat Troy, no sense in worrying about a Natty. You need to crush this bunch and leave no doubt. Cats by 21. If we limp over the line in this one, it won't bode well for our chances moving forward. Time to get back to playing Bret Hart basketball --- excellence of execution.

[Bluecat]

I think the Cats will get right and come out with some eagerness in round 1. Cats win by 19

[Wildcat_blue]

I honestly think the committee realized the shaft Kentucky has gotten in roads past. The mid majors don’t bring the money the blue bloods do. Having Kentucky irrelevant for money and getting back on the national stage was the reason for their path. I can easily see a final four run if butler stays healthy, that doesn’t mean Kentucky is so much better than the field, it is just the draw is so favorable!! Best I can remember so I will take all day and I love our chances; especially to get out of this weekend!! Go Cats!!

[Cactus Jack]

At -10.5, this is the tightest of any of the 3/14 lines. Per ESPN, it opened at -11.5 and has went down. The other 3/14 lines are -14.5 (ISU), -15.5 (TTU), and -16.5 (Wisc.). It isn't as if the Over/Unders are way out of proportion either. Wisconsin is 152.5, Texas Tech's is 143.5, and Iowa State's is 143.5. Not the most encouraging signs, but we're still a pretty big favorite.

One of the most important things will be opening up strong. Don't want to give them confidence and put ourselves in a situation like the Arkansas game where the weight of the expectations seem to make us tense up. If it's close late... look-out.


They have a lot of continuity are a bit bigger than I expected, but don't seem especially deep. Teams playing tons of high leverage possessions usually rely on defending well, but KenPom actually has Kentucky considerably higher when adjusted for pace. I keep reading about how well they defend the two, how well they rebound, and how many turnovers they force (usually in that order) but it isn't as if we take tons of twos. The other two scare me a bit, but I doubt they are going to be able to dial up the type of athletic pressure that Alabama was able to roll out against us (sans Butler) or the kind of half-court pressure that rocked us at Ole Miss.


Looking at their Power 5 results:

In their game against Arkansas, they won on the boards (37/30), lost turnovers (24/14), and Arkansas shot 42-43% from the field and three. Their best player (Conerway) fouled out of that one and went 1/11 for 2 points.

In the Oregon game, the Ducks led 38-23 at half. Troy lost on the boards (38/31), were even on turnovers (17/17), and the Ducks shot 31% from 3 (on 22 attempts) and 51% from the field. Conerway finished this one with 7 points on 2-13 shooting.

In the Houston game, they trailed 33-11 at half. Troy lost on the boards (38/36), lost the turnover battle (12/10), and let the Cougars shoot 47% from three and 41% from the field. Conerway had 9 points on 4-9 shooting.

Kentucky obviously isn't Houston defensively, but you can see a bit of a trend-- the stats that they excel in really start to even out and Conerway, who is listed at 6'3, 180, seems to struggle. He had a decent enough stat line against Ole Miss in 2024 but it was a blowout. I don't see his luck changing as Butler or Oweh check him most of the game with Williams being able to clean up some mistakes.

This also seems like a game where you can hide a Brea, Perry, or Noah defensively and one where we can "out-athlete" them a handful of times. I expect big games from Williams, Oweh, and Butler (as long as he holds up). Speaking of: if Butler goes down, that will obviously take a lot of wind out of our sails.

This doesn't exactly have 2011 Princeton vibes, but I do see at as a game where both teams hit at least a couple of runs before Kentucky puts it out of reach late. Key to the game will be how well each team weathers the other's runs.

[Mr. D]

This is a decent draw for the first round. Undersized team that is horrible from 3. Amari Williams should be able to set the tone and control the rhythm of the game in the post working against 6'8" guys. Lamont Butler and Oweh limit turnovers. I think Troy will struggle offensively because it will be hard for them to score over the size of Williams and Carr.

[4 Quarters]

I really don't see the Cats steam rolling anybody.  Cats in a close one.

[Old School Hound]

[quote="Mr. D" pid="2503401" dateline="1742302304"]
This is a decent draw for the first round. Undersized team that is horrible from 3. Amari Williams should be able to set the tone and control the rhythm of the game in the post working against 6'8" guys. Lamont Butler and Oweh limit turnovers. I think Troy will struggle offensively because it will be hard for them to score over the size of Williams and Carr.                                                                                     ^   SHOULD
[/quote

[Old School Hound]

This is a decent draw for the first round. Undersized team that is horrible from 3. Amari Williams should be able to set the tone and control the rhythm of the game in the post working against 6'8" guys. Lamont Butler and Oweh limit turnovers. I think Troy will struggle offensively because it will be hard for them to score over the size of Williams and Carr.                                                                                                                                                                                                                           ^   SHOULD
[/quote

Troy SHOULD struggle offensively b/c of the length of Williams and Carr. But we've seen this act play out before. Undersized, outmanned Cinderella plays out of their minds and shoots lights out against us. Hoping for no such nightmare this time.