[Bob Seger]

Todays Gallup Poll shows Obama's approval rating tumbling in the last few days. Obama's new approval rating now stand at 46% and his disapproval rating is now 49%. Over all Romney leads 51%-46% among likely voters. Is the downward trend credited from voter thoughts from Debate #3, or from his botched handling of the Lybia crisis? Or both?

http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

[TheRealThing]

I say both. :biggrin:

[LWC]

What do the numbers look like in the swing states?

I have a weird feeling that this will be an election that Obama wins by 30-40 electoral votes but Romney wins by 3-4% in the popular. This is because I feel like Romney will dominate states that he wins, but Obama will eek out wins in really large states. With all of that said, it doesn't matter what the popular vote is, if you get 270 electoral votes.

[Hoot Gibson]

Todays Gallup Poll shows Obama's approval rating tumbling in the last few days. Obama's new approval rating now stand at 46% and his disapproval rating is now 49%. Over all Romney leads 51%-46% among likely voters. Is the downward trend credited from voter thoughts from Debate #3, or from his botched handling of the Lybia crisis? Or both?

http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

IMO, the drop is a combination of factors, including the fact that Obama was caught telling two whoppers during the third debate, the residual effect of Romney dominating debate #1, and the growing scandal of the Benghazi terrorist attack and Obama's poor handling of its aftermath.

The only reason that Obama's numbers are not dropping faster has been the mainstream media's refusal to give the Benghazi story proper coverage. We have a sitting president whose administration is being accused of: 1) refusing to provide proper security for the Libyan ambassador, 2) refusing to authorize a timely rescue operation from a nearby CIA safe house once the attack began, and 3) conducting a campaign of misinformation after the fact by blaming a Youtube video for the organized terrorist attack and jailing the video maker.

If the truth about Benghazi oozes out and becomes common knowledge before election day, Obama will not win a single battleground state. Obama is trying to sit on a lead that has already evaporated. Time is short, but it is still on Romney's side.

[Hoot Gibson]

I don't mean to rain on our parade, Bob, but Rasmussen publishes a strongly approve/strongly disapprove poll number for Obama's job performance every day and Obama is actually doing better in that survey than he has been doing. Amazingly, 33 percent of those polled strongly approve of the job that Obama is doing. 43 percent strongly disapprove. The "strongly approve" number typically ranges between the low 20s and 29 percent. I do not recall it being this high before, although it is probably due to Obama's dishonest ad campaign among his semi-literate core constituents.

When Romney wins this election, I seriously fear and expect that his shocked supporters who do not follow the news closely will riot in the streets. If that happens, the media will deserve a large portion of the blame for doing such a poor job reporting major developments in the campaign.

Not since FDR has an incumbent president won a second term in times of such poor economic conditions, and FDR was not burdened with multiple scandals like Benghazigate and Fast and Furious. Obama supporters should be hoping for a win but their hopes should be tempered with the history of similar campaigns of the past.

[TheRealVille]

What do the numbers look like in the swing states?

I have a weird feeling that this will be an election that Obama wins by 30-40 electoral votes but Romney wins by 3-4% in the popular. This is because I feel like Romney will dominate states that he wins, but Obama will eek out wins in really large states. With all of that said, it doesn't matter what the popular vote is, if you get 270 electoral votes.

BY everything electorally, Obama looks to have the bigger advantage. He has an easier road, and chance to 270 than Romney does. Even conceding NC and Fl to Romney, Obama has a better chance to take enough of the other states to get to 270 easier. Go to 270towin.com, and it will let you work out different scenarios. WI, MI, IA, NV, OH tend to favor Obama, and there is a very good chance Obama takes PA. I'm not saying Obama will win, but he has a better chance.





This new link showing up on my google tends to look the same way.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...ion-right/

[Hoot Gibson]

What do the numbers look like in the swing states?

I have a weird feeling that this will be an election that Obama wins by 30-40 electoral votes but Romney wins by 3-4% in the popular. This is because I feel like Romney will dominate states that he wins, but Obama will eek out wins in really large states. With all of that said, it doesn't matter what the popular vote is, if you get 270 electoral votes.

If you want a more objective analysis of the Electoral College projection, go to RealClearPolitics.com. Just keep in mind that Romney has the momentum and Obama had a huge lead in the "likely" and "leans" categories just a week ago. The best indication of how candidates are doing in particular swing states is to watch where the ticket is campaigning and airing ads. Both tickets are still hitting Ohio hard, so it is definitely a toss-up. Romney/Ryan are spending some time and money in Wisconsin and Ryan even campaigned in Pittsburgh a few days ago, but Pennsylvania remains an unlikely GOP pick-up. Romney and Ryan will be in Virginia tomorrow and Obama seems to have scaled his efforts here down, despite the polls still showing him close. Obama also seems to have all but conceded Florida and North Carolina.

I think that Romney and/or Ryan will spend more time in Colorado, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Hampshire as part of a back-up strategy in case they lose in Ohio - but I expect Romney to win Ohio. He was leading in polls on the economy and the mess that Obama made in mishandling Benghazi means that Romney will probably overtake Obama on foreign policy as well.

[Hoot Gibson]

LWC,

Rasmussenreports.com is also a good source for up to date information about how things are going in the swing races, but the results of his state polls will be listed on the realclearpolitics.com website.

Here is an interested story from London's Daily Mail. It is a shame that the British newspapers are a much better source of non-biased political coverage than our own publications but that is the current state of the American media.

[INDENT]

Is Obama's 'firewall' crumbling? Romney draws level with President in 'safe state' of Wisconsin

• Obama won there by 14 points in 2008
  
• Romney to campaign in Wisconsin on Tuesday
  
• Obama believes Ohio, Nevada and Wisconsin are his firewall
  

Mitt Romney is now tied with Barack Obama in Wisconsin, one of the 'firewall' states the president hoped would protect him against defeats in Florida and Virginia, according to a new poll.

Rasmussen found that Romney and Obama were tied on 49 per cent in the state, which Obama won in a 14-point landslide in 2008.

Buoyed by internal polling which shows similar numbers, Romney is to head to Wisconsin next week, as first reported by MailOnline last Tuesday. Romney will be campaigning in West Allis on Monday evening.

Romney advisers believe that Governor Scott Walker's recall victory this year gives them an organisational edge in the state. In addition, Representative Paul Ryan, Romney's vice-presidential running mate, is from Wisconsin and the Obama campaign has not spent there on the negative advertising that has been so effective in Ohio.

Scott Rasmussen, who conducted the poll of likely voters, said that Wisconsin could become the decisive state in 2012 if Romney takes Florida and Virginia - as current polling suggests - but Obama manages to hold out in Ohio, where he has a wafer-thin poll lead.

'If Ohio goes for the president, Romney has a few perilous paths to victory available to him. All require him to carry Wisconsin and its 10 Electoral College votes,' he wrote on his website.

'The simplest path without Ohio would be for Romney to win Wisconsin, Colorado and one other swing state. It's plausible, but an uphill struggle.'

Obama has long believed that Ohio, Nevada and Wisconsin is his firewall. Even if Florida, Virginia, Colorado and New Hampshire topple, victory in those three states would secure him re-election. Now, however, that firewall is under threat.

[/INDENT]

[TheRealThing]

I don't mean to rain on our parade, Bob, but Rasmussen publishes a strongly approve/strongly disapprove poll number for Obama's job performance every day and Obama is actually doing better in that survey than he has been doing. Amazingly, 33 percent of those polled strongly approve of the job that Obama is doing. 43 percent strongly disapprove. The "strongly approve" number typically ranges between the low 20s and 29 percent. I do not recall it being this high before, although it is probably due to Obama's dishonest ad campaign among his semi-literate core constituents.

When Romney wins this election, I seriously fear and expect that his shocked supporters who do not follow the news closely will riot in the streets. If that happens, the media will deserve a large portion of the blame for doing such a poor job reporting major developments in the campaign.

Not since FDR has an incumbent president won a second term in times of such poor economic conditions, and FDR was not burdened with multiple scandals like Benghazigate and Fast and Furious. Obama supporters should be hoping for a win but their hopes should be tempered with the history of similar campaigns of the past.

He was bouncing around 45-46% right after he took office. He hasn't hit 33% since sometime in late 2009 early 2010. How this number could have improved right now defy's logic.

[Hoot Gibson]

He was bouncing around 45-46% right after he took office. He hasn't hit 33% since sometime in late 2009 early 2010. How this number could have improved right now defy's logic.

I agree, TRT. I think that the surge in the "strongly approve" numbers may be attributed to the fact that most Obama voters in 2012 will be "low information" voters. What little information that these idiots manage to accumulate comes from Obama's campaign and "news" programming like MTV and the Daily Show. Obama is spending money on his get out the vote efforts and the 33-percenters are soaking in the deluge of disinformation. The "strongly disapprove" numbers have remained pretty steady for months and Obama's overall disapproval number remains above 50 percent.

I understand strong liberal Democrats saying that they "somewhat approve" of Obama's job performance but that 33 percent number does, as you said, defy logic.

[TheRealThing]

I agree, TRT. I think that the surge in the "strongly approve" numbers may be attributed to the fact that most Obama voters in 2012 will be "low information" voters. What little information that these idiots manage to accumulate comes from Obama's campaign and "news" programming like MTV and the Daily Show. Obama is spending money on his get out the vote efforts and the 33-percenters are soaking in the deluge of disinformation. The "strongly disapprove" numbers have remained pretty steady for months and Obama's overall disapproval number remains above 50 percent.

I understand strong liberal Democrats saying that they "somewhat approve" of Obama's job performance but that 33 percent number does, as you said, defy logic.

Hadn't considered that, I can see the truth of it. No wonder Obama spends so much time on the entertainment show circuit, it's not to dodge legitimate media, it's to reach the sublimely simple. Add 'the shallow' to the dems coalition's list of losers. If this is the new normal, we're in real trouble from now on because so many folks have been encouraged to depend on government for their living. If we can get Romney elected, we just might be able to inform enough college grads and working men and women who actually think for themselves, to restore some balance to the voting base equation. Eight years of sanity would be such a welcomed relief.