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01-26-2012, 08:03 PM
Coach John Calipari has his Kentucky Wildcats ranked No. 1 in the country.
Through the dominant play of their ridiculous freshman class, the Wildcats are hurtling toward the Big Dance with violent intentions.
However, despite their current 20-1 record and their undeniable talent, the Cats will not be cutting down the nets come April 2nd.
While there are no sure things in sports, there are five reasons I believe that Kentucky will be all danced out before the national championship.
Reason No. 1: John Calipari
John Calipari is good at a lot of things.
He's an outstanding recruiter. He has done a wonderful job popularizing the dribble-drive motion offense in college basketball. He's an excellent NCAA rule violator. However, what he has not done is maximizing the potential of future NBA stars.
Such is the case this year. Insisting on running the offense the same way he always has, Calipari has his best player taking less shots than three other players, with two more players right on his heels.
Anthony Davis, a likely top three selection in the next NBA draft, has a 13 percent higher field goal percentage than anyone else on the Wildcats roster, yet has taken the fourth-most shots.
He has converted nearly 30 more attempts than starting guard Marquis Teague in 17 less tries. Yet, Calipari insists that using his guards as the focal point of the offense is in the team's best interest.
This offense has failed on the biggest stage with such prolific players as Derrick Rose and Tyreke Evans. How he can still refuse to involve his incredibly talented center more forcefully is beyond me.
Reason No. 2: Freshman Top Scorers
Lack of experience is a no-no for leading scorers.
Kemba Walker. Jon Scheyer. Tyler Hansbrough. Brandon Rush. Taurean Green. Joakim Noah. Sean May. Ben Gordon.
Nice list, right? These are the leading scorers of the past eight national champions. Guess how many were freshmen. If you guessed zero, you got it. Only one was a sophomore.
The last time a freshman led a champion in scoring was on the 2002-2003 Syracuse Orange. You may have heard about him. They call him Melo.
Though Doron Lamb, a sophomore, is currently leading the Wildcats in points per game, it seems likely that either Anthony Davis or Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (or both) will overtake him by season's end.
They are both less than a point down, and both are freshman. Relying on such a young kid to lead a team in scoring night in and night out is asking a lot. If one or both of them goes cold at the wrong time, it could be lights out in a hurry. I definitely prefer to have a more experienced scorer leading my team.
Reason No. 3: History Says No. 1 Overall Seeds Don't Win
Jared Sullinger and Ohio State were the last #1 overall seed to fall.
When the selection committee for the NCAA tournament began handing out No. 1 overall seeds in 2004, it seemed like just one more way to tell us who was going to win the tournament.
However, slapping that expectation on a team has not been kind to the kids who have to live up to it. Of the eight teams who have been burdened with the top seed, only one has risen to the challenge and won the dance...
The 2007 Florida Gators.
And that team really defied everything we know today about major college basketball. For one, they had no starting freshmen. But far more unbelievably, all five starters returned for another year after winning it all in 2006. Two members of that team were top 10 NBA draft picks and could easily have left after the '05 championship. You just don't see that anymore.
In any case, Kentucky has yet to secure the No. 1 seed, so this may be a bit of a stretch.
However, if they do get it, history tells us they are in for a tough finish.
Reason No. 4: Syracuse
Jim Boeheim's Orange could be the team to beat in March.
For all the talent and dribble-driving going on in Lexington, there's a frightening lack of ball security and assisting.
After tonight's win against Georgia, the Wildcats are boasting an alarming 1.03 assist-to-turnover ratio. With 280 assists on the season, and 270 turnovers, they're tied for the 103rd worst ratio in the country.
While individual skill may beat up on weaker, less experienced teams, Syracuse is not of that variety. The Orange boast the most steals per game in the country, which could lead to massive headaches for the Cats young back court.
In fact, this Syracuse team looks as if it may pose very similar problems to Calipari's squad as the Kansas team that beat him in the '08 championship game. Upperclassmen Scoop Jardine and Kris Joseph provide much-needed leadership, a la Mario Chalmers and Brandon Rush.
Fab Melo and Dion Waiters add the youth and extra talent to push them over the top.
As a side note, Fab Melo is the kind of player who I really see giving Anthony Davis problems. Not necessarily with his offensive game, which is significantly worse than Davis' defensive prowess.
Instead, I can see Davis' rebounding and post offense being greatly nullified by Melo's pure size and positioning.
Melo isn't a great rebounder but simply keeping Davis off the boards would be a fantastic start for the Orange.
Reason No. 5: Inexperience
Freshman don't win championships, simple as that.
Eighteen-year-old kids don't win championships. It just doesn't happen.
Basketball is a team sport, especially in the college game, where defenses aren't restricted in the schemes they use. It takes a team with a leader like Kemba Walker or Tyler Hansbrough, or a team with five returning starters like the back-to-back Florida championship squads.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is a superb talent and has a great shot of being an NBA star someday. But he's not ready to make shots like the three Mario Chalmers hit to take Kansas into OT against Calipari's '08 Memphis squad.
Upperclassmen are the force that drive a team. They understand the ins and outs of the game, and they know how to control both themselves and the flow of the game. A lack of experience can have a team pressing too hard in crucial moments or unsure of who takes the last shot. A lack of experience can quickly translate to a lack of confidence in a pivotal moment.
Derrick Rose won the NBA MVP last season, but he couldn't win a national championship at Memphis. Not because he wasn't good enough, he just wasn't ready. Had he stayed, he likely would've won himself a title.
Actually, he probably would've been kicked out of school for cheating, but that's another story.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/10381...tle/page/6
Through the dominant play of their ridiculous freshman class, the Wildcats are hurtling toward the Big Dance with violent intentions.
However, despite their current 20-1 record and their undeniable talent, the Cats will not be cutting down the nets come April 2nd.
While there are no sure things in sports, there are five reasons I believe that Kentucky will be all danced out before the national championship.
Reason No. 1: John Calipari
John Calipari is good at a lot of things.
He's an outstanding recruiter. He has done a wonderful job popularizing the dribble-drive motion offense in college basketball. He's an excellent NCAA rule violator. However, what he has not done is maximizing the potential of future NBA stars.
Such is the case this year. Insisting on running the offense the same way he always has, Calipari has his best player taking less shots than three other players, with two more players right on his heels.
Anthony Davis, a likely top three selection in the next NBA draft, has a 13 percent higher field goal percentage than anyone else on the Wildcats roster, yet has taken the fourth-most shots.
He has converted nearly 30 more attempts than starting guard Marquis Teague in 17 less tries. Yet, Calipari insists that using his guards as the focal point of the offense is in the team's best interest.
This offense has failed on the biggest stage with such prolific players as Derrick Rose and Tyreke Evans. How he can still refuse to involve his incredibly talented center more forcefully is beyond me.
Reason No. 2: Freshman Top Scorers
Lack of experience is a no-no for leading scorers.
Kemba Walker. Jon Scheyer. Tyler Hansbrough. Brandon Rush. Taurean Green. Joakim Noah. Sean May. Ben Gordon.
Nice list, right? These are the leading scorers of the past eight national champions. Guess how many were freshmen. If you guessed zero, you got it. Only one was a sophomore.
The last time a freshman led a champion in scoring was on the 2002-2003 Syracuse Orange. You may have heard about him. They call him Melo.
Though Doron Lamb, a sophomore, is currently leading the Wildcats in points per game, it seems likely that either Anthony Davis or Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (or both) will overtake him by season's end.
They are both less than a point down, and both are freshman. Relying on such a young kid to lead a team in scoring night in and night out is asking a lot. If one or both of them goes cold at the wrong time, it could be lights out in a hurry. I definitely prefer to have a more experienced scorer leading my team.
Reason No. 3: History Says No. 1 Overall Seeds Don't Win
Jared Sullinger and Ohio State were the last #1 overall seed to fall.
When the selection committee for the NCAA tournament began handing out No. 1 overall seeds in 2004, it seemed like just one more way to tell us who was going to win the tournament.
However, slapping that expectation on a team has not been kind to the kids who have to live up to it. Of the eight teams who have been burdened with the top seed, only one has risen to the challenge and won the dance...
The 2007 Florida Gators.
And that team really defied everything we know today about major college basketball. For one, they had no starting freshmen. But far more unbelievably, all five starters returned for another year after winning it all in 2006. Two members of that team were top 10 NBA draft picks and could easily have left after the '05 championship. You just don't see that anymore.
In any case, Kentucky has yet to secure the No. 1 seed, so this may be a bit of a stretch.
However, if they do get it, history tells us they are in for a tough finish.
Reason No. 4: Syracuse
Jim Boeheim's Orange could be the team to beat in March.
For all the talent and dribble-driving going on in Lexington, there's a frightening lack of ball security and assisting.
After tonight's win against Georgia, the Wildcats are boasting an alarming 1.03 assist-to-turnover ratio. With 280 assists on the season, and 270 turnovers, they're tied for the 103rd worst ratio in the country.
While individual skill may beat up on weaker, less experienced teams, Syracuse is not of that variety. The Orange boast the most steals per game in the country, which could lead to massive headaches for the Cats young back court.
In fact, this Syracuse team looks as if it may pose very similar problems to Calipari's squad as the Kansas team that beat him in the '08 championship game. Upperclassmen Scoop Jardine and Kris Joseph provide much-needed leadership, a la Mario Chalmers and Brandon Rush.
Fab Melo and Dion Waiters add the youth and extra talent to push them over the top.
As a side note, Fab Melo is the kind of player who I really see giving Anthony Davis problems. Not necessarily with his offensive game, which is significantly worse than Davis' defensive prowess.
Instead, I can see Davis' rebounding and post offense being greatly nullified by Melo's pure size and positioning.
Melo isn't a great rebounder but simply keeping Davis off the boards would be a fantastic start for the Orange.
Reason No. 5: Inexperience
Freshman don't win championships, simple as that.
Eighteen-year-old kids don't win championships. It just doesn't happen.
Basketball is a team sport, especially in the college game, where defenses aren't restricted in the schemes they use. It takes a team with a leader like Kemba Walker or Tyler Hansbrough, or a team with five returning starters like the back-to-back Florida championship squads.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is a superb talent and has a great shot of being an NBA star someday. But he's not ready to make shots like the three Mario Chalmers hit to take Kansas into OT against Calipari's '08 Memphis squad.
Upperclassmen are the force that drive a team. They understand the ins and outs of the game, and they know how to control both themselves and the flow of the game. A lack of experience can have a team pressing too hard in crucial moments or unsure of who takes the last shot. A lack of experience can quickly translate to a lack of confidence in a pivotal moment.
Derrick Rose won the NBA MVP last season, but he couldn't win a national championship at Memphis. Not because he wasn't good enough, he just wasn't ready. Had he stayed, he likely would've won himself a title.
Actually, he probably would've been kicked out of school for cheating, but that's another story.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/10381...tle/page/6
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01-26-2012, 08:52 PM
Strong stuff... we'll just have to wait and see what happens in March.
01-26-2012, 09:38 PM
Reason 1 and 2 completely cancel each other out.
01-26-2012, 09:48 PM
Cal's track record in the tourney...and the last 15+ years in Lexington. Starting to become the Notre Dame of basketball.
01-27-2012, 02:12 AM
5 Reasons we will win the title...
1. Michael Kidd Gilchirst
2. Anthony Davis
3. Marquis Teague
4. Terrence Jones
5. Doron Lamb
1. Michael Kidd Gilchirst
2. Anthony Davis
3. Marquis Teague
4. Terrence Jones
5. Doron Lamb
01-27-2012, 01:18 PM
Believe it or not, the lack of assists does not really bother me in this offense. In the dribble-drive, a lot of assist-passing (passing that sets a person up to score in less than two steps) does not happen. The average drive to the basket takes at least 3 steps.
[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
01-27-2012, 03:02 PM
Dude obviously doesn't watch Kentucky play. "Holy Hell! Anthony Davis is shooting 65% from the field. Get him the ball!!!111one". And exactly why is he shooting 65%? How many of his field goals have been jump shots? Hardly any. All of Davis' scoring comes off of lobs, dunks, and layups. It's not like he's pulling up from 3 and nailing them.
Inexperience is bullshit too. If experience is so important, then why didn't North Carolina have enough sense to foul with 5 seconds to go at the end of the UK/UNC game at Rupp this year? Henson got blocked with 5 seconds to go and UNC had ample opportunity to foul and extend the game. Instead, they turned around and walked off the court. Experience is overrated and something that can't be measured, simply because Kentucky is the only team that gets this many freshmen studs year in and year out.
Syracuse the team to beat my ass. They will be lucky to keep the wins they already have after the NCAA gets all the evidence in on Fab Melo getting people to write papers and take exams for him. Besides that, Kentucky has 3 guys shooting right at 40% from the 3 point line this year. What is it that a zone defense is notorious for giving up? Uncontested 3 point shots. Not only that, but UK has faced a zone defense in every game they have played this year. They are understanding how to face a zone defense. They are doing a much better job at running a high/low offense to beat that zone defense. By the time the NCAA tournament rolls around, KY will know exactly how to break a zone defense.
Inexperience is bullshit too. If experience is so important, then why didn't North Carolina have enough sense to foul with 5 seconds to go at the end of the UK/UNC game at Rupp this year? Henson got blocked with 5 seconds to go and UNC had ample opportunity to foul and extend the game. Instead, they turned around and walked off the court. Experience is overrated and something that can't be measured, simply because Kentucky is the only team that gets this many freshmen studs year in and year out.
Syracuse the team to beat my ass. They will be lucky to keep the wins they already have after the NCAA gets all the evidence in on Fab Melo getting people to write papers and take exams for him. Besides that, Kentucky has 3 guys shooting right at 40% from the 3 point line this year. What is it that a zone defense is notorious for giving up? Uncontested 3 point shots. Not only that, but UK has faced a zone defense in every game they have played this year. They are understanding how to face a zone defense. They are doing a much better job at running a high/low offense to beat that zone defense. By the time the NCAA tournament rolls around, KY will know exactly how to break a zone defense.
01-27-2012, 05:49 PM
I have to disgree with you BCF4L Expierence obviously does matter! Think about that for a minute without the blue shades... How many freshamn loaded teams have won in the past decade? Exactly, 0! I think Coach Cal is prime example to use as that. He has had the most talent of any other coach, any! and yet he has how many championships? he had a class with 5, yes 5 first round draft picks and yet he couldnt get it done with them! Sure talent will get you wins november-febuary but once March maddness rolls around it takes expierence! Idk how you could make a logical argument with that. History and facts show that Young freshman loaded teams cant win a championship. Not to say it wont happen, but its not likely at all!
[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
IAJ
"IT'S ALL JESUS"
IAJ
"IT'S ALL JESUS"
01-27-2012, 05:56 PM
Sooner or later Calipari is just going to out-talent everyone in the tourney.
It's going to happen.
We just have to see when lol
It's going to happen.
We just have to see when lol
01-27-2012, 05:57 PM
I keep hearing about this "Freshmen don't win championship", well last I checked..Miller, Lamb, and Jones were big threats who aren't freshmen.
01-27-2012, 06:13 PM
Real Badman Wrote:I keep hearing about this "Freshmen don't win championship", well last I checked..Miller, Lamb, and Jones were big threats who aren't freshmen.
That could be the difference this year.
Last year Harrelson and Miller simply weren't that big of a threat.
When it comes crunch time I wouldn't have a problem with the ball being in any of those guys' hands.
But Teague touches the ball every play and you get the feeling that MKG and Davis are the leaders of this team.
01-27-2012, 06:21 PM
BCF4L Wrote:Dude obviously doesn't watch Kentucky play. "Holy Hell! Anthony Davis is shooting 65% from the field. Get him the ball!!!111one". And exactly why is he shooting 65%? How many of his field goals have been jump shots? Hardly any. All of Davis' scoring comes off of lobs, dunks, and layups. It's not like he's pulling up from 3 and nailing them.
Inexperience is bullshit too. If experience is so important, then why didn't North Carolina have enough sense to foul with 5 seconds to go at the end of the UK/UNC game at Rupp this year? Henson got blocked with 5 seconds to go and UNC had ample opportunity to foul and extend the game. Instead, they turned around and walked off the court. Experience is overrated and something that can't be measured, simply because Kentucky is the only team that gets this many freshmen studs year in and year out.
Syracuse the team to beat my ass. They will be lucky to keep the wins they already have after the NCAA gets all the evidence in on Fab Melo getting people to write papers and take exams for him. Besides that, Kentucky has 3 guys shooting right at 40% from the 3 point line this year. What is it that a zone defense is notorious for giving up? Uncontested 3 point shots. Not only that, but UK has faced a zone defense in every game they have played this year. They are understanding how to face a zone defense. They are doing a much better job at running a high/low offense to beat that zone defense. By the time the NCAA tournament rolls around, KY will know exactly how to break a zone defense.
You sound like the kinda guy's I like to gamble with.
01-27-2012, 07:21 PM
DSRfan Wrote:Someone is whistling past the graveyard. A dookie perhaps? And lastly, the #1 overall seed rarely wins? Well that may be true, I would say that the NCAA's overall #1 is NOT the best team just as often as it is. They DO make mistakes. Big ones sometimes.
The following teams entered the tournament ranked #1 in at least one of the AP, UPI, or USA Today polls and won the tournament:
1949: Kentucky (AP)
1951: Kentucky (AP/UPI)
1953: Indiana (AP/UPI)
1955: San Francisco (AP/UPI)
1956: San Francisco (AP/UPI)
1957: North Carolina (AP/UPI)
1964: UCLA (AP/UPI)
1967: UCLA (AP/UPI)
1969: UCLA (AP/UPI)
1971: UCLA (AP/UPI)
1972: UCLA (AP/UPI)
1973: UCLA (AP/UPI)
1974: NC State (AP/UPI)
1975: UCLA (AP)
1976: Indiana (AP/UPI)
1978: Kentucky (AP/UPI)
1982: North Carolina (AP/UPI)
1992: Duke (AP/UPI)
1994: Arkansas (USA Today)
1995: UCLA (AP/USA Today)
2001: Duke (AP/USA Today)
2009: North Carolina (AP/USA Today)
Since the inception of the 64-team tournament in 1985, each seed-pairing has played a total of 108 first-round games, with the following results:
1.The #1 seed is 108â0 against the #16 seed (100%).
2.The #2 seed is 104â4 against the #15 seed (96.30%).
3.The #3 seed is 92â16 against the #14 seed (85.19%).
4.The #4 seed is 85â23 against the #13 seed (78.70%).
5.The #5 seed is 72â36 against the #12 seed (66.67%).
6.The #6 seed is 72â36 against the #11 seed (66.67%).
7.The #7 seed is 65â43 against the #10 seed (60.19%).
8.The #8 seed is 51â57 against the #9 seed (47.22%).
Most successful low seeds
These are the lowest seeds to reach each round since expansion to 64 teams in 1985:
A #15 seed has reached the Round of 32 four times:
Richmond in 1991 Santa Clara in 1993 Coppin State in 1997 Hampton in 2001 A #14 seed has reached the Sweet Sixteen (Regional Semi-finals) twice:
Cleveland State in 1986 Chattanooga in 1997 A #12 seed has reached the Elite Eight (Regional Finals) once:
Missouri in 2002 An #11 seed has reached the Final Four and played in the national semi-final game three times:
LSU in 1986 George Mason in 2006 Virginia Commonwealth in 2011 A #8 seed has reached the National Finals (Championship Game) three times, though one was vacated by the NCAA:
UCLA in 1980, though the Bruins' appearance was vacated due to recruiting violations involving two players on that team. Villanova in 1985 Butler in 2011 A #8 seed has won the National Championship once:
Villanova Wildcats in the 1985 tournament.
01-27-2012, 07:23 PM
zaga_fan Wrote:That could be the difference this year.
Last year Harrelson and Miller simply weren't that big of a threat.
When it comes crunch time I wouldn't have a problem with the ball being in any of those guys' hands.
But Teague touches the ball every play and you get the feeling that MKG and Davis are the leaders of this team.
Im not a genius or anything but something about Teague's position requires him to touch the ball every play.
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