[Cactus Jack]

Last night's results were... something. 

I get that statistical improbabilities happen, but there seem to have been too many coincidences with the NBA Draft Lottery over the years, whether it's Ewing, Yao Ming, Shaq, or Anthony Davis. 

My intuition is yes, it's a rigged game. It's the only Draft in pro sports where the order/selection is shrouded in the secrecy of a convoluted formula that's carried out away from the public eye, which does it no favors. 

Thoughts?

[plantmanky]

Everything NBA is rigged.

[-STAT-]

Yeah, it's definitely rigged, and I'll never be convinced otherwise. There have been instances of it in the past, but this one with the Mavericks trading Luka just 3 months ago, then you have a generational talent that will be the #1 pick, and a team gets that pick that had a less than 2% chance. Gotta remember Dallas just made The Finals last season, they may have traded their franchise player, but they still have Kyrie, AD, and a pretty solid supporting cast, now you add Cooper Flagg? Tell me how it's not rigged if anyone thinks it.

[Cactus Jack]

Wembanyama to San Antonio a few years back is another one that everyone saw coming.

Didn't see this one with Dallas, but it's always teams in large markets or advantageous situations for the league getting the #1 pick, unless it's a really weak draft, in which case teams like Atlanta or Charlotte get their turn(s).

Fun fact: Denver, Utah, Memphis, Miami, Indianapolis, and Oklahoma City have never had the #1 overall pick. Charlotte had the #1 once very early in their franchise's history. The Atlanta Hawks have been around since 1968 and have been pretty terrible but only had the #1 twice-- 1975 and 2024 (when no one was interested in a trade).

[-STAT-]

Wembanyama to San Antonio a few years back is another one that everyone saw coming.

Didn't see this one with Dallas, but it's always teams in large markets or advantageous situations for the league getting the #1 pick, unless it's a really weak draft, in which case teams like Atlanta or Charlotte get their turn(s).

Fun fact: Denver, Utah, Memphis, Miami, Indianapolis, and Oklahoma City have never had the #1 overall pick. Charlotte had the #1 once very early in their franchise's history. The Atlanta Hawks have been around since 1968 and have been pretty terrible but only had the #1 twice-- 1975 and 2024 (when no one was interested in a trade).

You bring up a great point CJ. Only when the draft classes are weak, is when you see the small market teams get the #1 pick. 

Another interesting case is Lebron. Cleveland is far from a big market like L.A/New York but the powers that be knew what it would mean for the city, but above all else what it would mean for the league publicity wise, and financially. Hometown kid, generational talent going #1 to his hometown team? It only made sense for that to happen. But like you said, in most every other case, when it's a generational talent like we've got this year, especially after a team gets fleeced in a trade, then they get the #1 pick.

[Cactus Jack]

You bring up a great point CJ. Only when the draft classes are weak, is when you see the small market teams get the #1 pick. 

Another interesting case is Lebron. Cleveland is far from a big market like L.A/New York but the powers that be knew what it would mean for the city, but above all else what it would mean for the league publicity wise, and financially. Hometown kid, generational talent going #1 to his hometown team? It only made sense for that to happen. But like you said, in most every other case, when it's a generational talent like we've got this year, especially after a team gets fleeced in a trade, then they get the #1 pick.

Yep. Amazing how the lottery nearly always works out well for the league that controls it's process.

LeBron is another really good example. Cleveland was pretty terrible and actively trying to get him, but it also made more sense that he ends up there. Keeping him in his hometown guaranteed at least two decades of relevance for them.

One top player that makes sense for a small market team is enough to carry a their franchise for a decade if you include the fact that there'll still be some fan interest in the team for awhile after they're gone. If it's a generational player like LeBron and you play your cards right, it's a good two to three decades of interest in their market that will keep everyone from losing all interest in them and calls to relocate.

But if you are an expansion team or franchise that has relocated? Give it until years four and five and they'll land a really good #1 overall pick, followed by another top pick (Orlando had #1 Shaq and #2 Webber; Charlotte had #1 Larry Johnson and #2 Alonzo Mourning). The numbers cooled off a bit for Vancouver and Toronto, but they were still able to get some really high picks (#2 for Camby, #9 for McGrady, #4 for Jamison in Toronto; #3 for Abdur-Rahim in one of the best drafts ever, #4 for Antonio Daniels, #2 for Mike Bibby, #2 for Steve Francis, and #2 for Stromile Swift in consecutive years for Vancouver). The only real exception to this is the Charlotte Bobcats if you want to count them.

Terrible draft? Come on down Detroit ('21), Orlando ('22), Atlanta ('24), etc.

Sacramento is one of the worst run franchises and the Royals/Kings have been around forever. They've picked #1 overall five times ('89, '60, '59, '57, and '56). They've picked #2 overall five times as well ('18, '78, '77, '58, and '55). Some teams just seem to have all the luck I guess.