[16BBall Fan]

Here is place to discuss the tournament for games other than the Kentucky games.

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South Region:
 
#1-Auburn-Overall #1 seed
 #2-Michigan State
 #3-Iowa State
 #4-Texas A&M
 #5-Michigan
 #6-Ole Miss
 #7-Marquette
 #8-Louisville
 #9-Creighton
#10- New Mexico
#11-San Diego St/North Carolina
#12-UC San Diego
#13-Yale
#14-Lipscomb
#15-Bryant
#16-Ala. St./St. Francis

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East Region:
 
#1-Duke
 #2-Alabama
 #3-Wisconsin
 #4-Arizona
 #5-Oregon 
 #6-BYU
 #7-St. Mary's
 #8-Miss. State
 #9-Baylor
#10-Vanderblit
#11-VCU
#12-Liberty
#13-Akron
#14-Montana
#15-Robert Morris
#16-American/Mount St. Mary's

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Midwest Region:
 
#1-Houston
 #2-Tennessee
 #3-Kentucky
 #4-Purdue
 #5-Clemson
 #6-Illinois
 #7-UCLA
 #8-Gonzaga
 #9-Georgia
#10-Utah St.
#11-Texas/Xavier
#12-McNeese
#13-High Point
#14-Troy
#15-Wofford
#16-SIU Edwardsville

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West Region:
 
#1- Florida
 #2-St. Johns
 #3-Texas Tech
 #4-Maryland
 #5-Memphis
 #6-Missouri
 #7-Kansas
 #8-UCONN
 #9-Oklahoma
#10-Arkansas
#11-Drake
#12-Colorado St.
#13-Grand Canyon
#14-UNCW
#15-Omaha
#16-Norfolk St.

[Van Hagar]

I actually love Kentucky’s draw. Don’t play til Friday, gives Butler one extra day to hopefully get better. Get a very winnable first round game (although we know our recent history in those games), then either Illinois, Xavier or Texas in the second round (I think it will be Texas). Again, very winnable. And then, if the seeds hold up, you get Tennessee for a third time in the round of 16. We know we can beat them. If someone in the upper half of the bracket could knock Houston out before the final eight, I actually think we could sneak in to the final four. Dreaming, I know, but that’s what March is for.

I’ll go with Auburn (the committee really took care of them), Alabama, Houston and Florida (just by a whisker over St. John’s) as the final four, with Florida winning it all. And boy, didn’t Louisville get screwed? No way they should have been such a low seed, a very tough opener, then Auburn in round two if they advance.

Oh, and what about the very real possibility of Pitino vs. Cal in the second round? Can you imagine if they had put that bracket in Lexington? Would have been insane.

[Old School Hound]

Paging Cactus Jack... 1...2....3

I want to hear your analysis, Jack. You are my basketball God. Pretty tough second game opponent for our Cats. Then, Tennessee. OUCH!!!! To beat Tennessee three times in one season and knock them out of the Dance would be like manna falling from heaven, and serving as my daily sustenance for the rest of my life. The only thing I would ask of God for the remainder of my time on this planet is to bring plantmanguy to his knees, make him bow down before all of BGR and admit to being filled to the brim with copious amounts of assholeness.

[16BBall Fan]

Conference Breakdown:

SEC- 14

Big 10- 8

Big 12- 7

Big East- 5

ACC- 4

Mountain West- 4

West Coast- 2

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Last 4 in:                                                         First 4 out:

Texas                                                              West Virginia
Xavier                                                              Indiana
San Diego St.                                                 Ohio State
North Carolina                                              Boise State

[Old School Hound]

Pope &  our boys receiving news of their seed and opponent. How can you not love this ragtag band of Big Blue warriors?  Even if they lose to Troy, it's been a helluva season.

[plantmanky]

Louisville got hosed.

[Old School Hound]

Louisville got hosed.

Yeah, when I first saw that #8, I was surprised. I'm not a committee-level guy, but it seems to me that at #8 they were undervalued. Their coach has to be coach of the year, doesn't he?

[4 Quarters]

Louisville got hosed.

Hey, we agree.

[Cactus Jack]

Louisville is very underseeded, but they get to trade that off with playing in Rupp. I'd say after the Auburn-Kentucky celebration, there'll be a lot of Cardinals fans in Rupp for that second round game if both make it. If it's Auburn and Creighton, there'll be a lot of people for Creighton.

[Old School Hound]

When is the last time that a team has had the kind of turnaround that U of L has had this season? Going from one of the worst teams in the country to a top 20 team is mighty impressive. Their coach deserves huge props.

[jetpilot]

Criminal what they did to Louisville. Worst hosing I can ever remember and I mean ever. Great draw for UK.

[Old School Hound]

Criminal what they did to Louisville. Worst hosing I can ever remember and I mean ever. Great draw for UK.

I've not watched anything all day. Has anyone heard any reasoning from the all-powerful committee on why Louisville got that ridiculous seed for a team that had such a solid season?

[Cactus Jack]

I've not watched anything all day. Has anyone heard any reasoning from the all-powerful committee on why Louisville got that ridiculous seed for a team that had such a solid season?

I haven't been watching tons of tournament coverage but I'd say a few things were at play:

1. the ACC was terribly down;

2. Louisville got beaten pretty badly by a Duke team that was without Cooper Flagg; the final score makes it look closer than what it actually was;

3. the SEC getting 14 teams in created a logjam logistically... both Missouri and Ole Miss were 6 seeds... SEC teams seeded lower needed to be kept away from one another;

4. Kansas, Marquette, UCLA, and St. Mary's were 7s.... all but St. Mary's had more quality wins than Louisville and the committee seemed to value that throughout seeding... anyone can go back and tell me Louisville's 5 best wins if you don't believe me;

5. Louisville was under-seeded but they seemed to make up for it by giving them a de facto home game in the Lexington region;

[jetpilot]

I've not watched anything all day. Has anyone heard any reasoning from the all-powerful committee on why Louisville got that ridiculous seed for a team that had such a solid season?

I haven't been watching tons of tournament coverage but I'd say a few things were at play:

1. the ACC was terribly down;

2. Louisville got beaten pretty badly by a Duke team that was without Cooper Flagg; the final score makes it look closer than what it actually was;

3. the SEC getting 14 teams in created a logjam logistically... both Missouri and Ole Miss were 6 seeds... SEC teams seeded lower needed to be kept away from one another;

4. Kansas, Marquette, UCLA, and St. Mary's were 7s.... all but St. Mary's had more quality wins than Louisville and the committee seemed to value that throughout seeding... anyone can go back and tell me Louisville's 5 best wins if you don't believe me;

5. Louisville was under-seeded but they seemed to make up for it by giving them a de facto home game in the Lexington region;

I believe Louisville was ahead of Duke at halftime and had a bad 2nd half. They were without Reyne Smith as well who is very good. No justification for the seeding but playing at Rupp is huge so it's ok. Clemson a 5 seed and Louisville beat them twice smh. Louisville lost 2 games in the last 3 months. Crazy.

[Cactus Jack]

I believe Louisville was ahead of Duke at halftime and had a bad 2nd half. They were without Reyne Smith as well who is very good. No justification for the seeding but playing at Rupp is huge so it's ok. Clemson a 5 seed and Louisville beat them twice smh. Louisville lost 2 games in the last 3 months. Crazy.

Louisville was up on Duke but the 2nd half was almost as bad as what Alabama did to Kentucky.

A number 8 seed for a team with such a good record jumps out at you, but look at the #7s ahead of them.

Marquette was a Top 10 team for much of the year and beat: Maryland, Purdue, Wisconsin, Creighton, Georgia, and Xavier x3,
Kansas beat: Duke, Michigan State, Iowa State, Arizona, and North Carolina
UCLA beat: Michigan State, Arizona, Oregon x2, Wisconsin, and Gonzaga

Louisville beat: Clemson x2 and North Carolina. Those are their wins over teams that made the field. Two of their other big wins, West Virginia and Indiana, were over teams that really crapped the bed down the stretch. Had even one of those two performed well enough to make the field, we might be having a different conversation.

St. Mary's was the school seeded ahead of Louisville that they could complain most about, but the Gaels were in the East and will open against Vanderbilt in Rupp Arena. I'd expect the crowd to be much more pro-Vandy and would think St. Mary's would trade seeds with Louisville if it meant they could be in the West Region. Also, look at the #10 line-- Arkansas, Vanderbilt, New Mexico, and Utah State are no slouches. Utah State is the name no one recognizes, but could wind up being the best team of the bunch. I don't see much difference between that group and the #9s-- Georgia, Oklahoma, Creighton, and Baylor. Depending on the make-up of my team, I'd probably rather play the #9s than the #10s, or at least could think of 9-10 pairings where the 10 would be favored.

If nothing else, the committee seemed pretty consistent this year. Auburn lost three of their last four but was still the #1 overall seed; Florida was a lot of people's pick for the #1 overall but their non-conference schedule cooked them (best win was UNC). Another of the best examples of this is that Kentucky didn't look great late, but they had a lot of wins over some really good teams and got rewarded. Same for a St. John's team that had some not-so great looking losses (Georgia, Baylor, and Villanova), but was still able to get a #2 seed because they had 7 wins over tournament teams.

Clemson was seeded ahead of Louisville because they beat Duke and Kentucky. A little of their success last year might have been factored in too (whether it should have been or not).

[Old School Hound]

I'm not saying that I think Louisville is all that much better than a #8 but with what they did over the last three months they deserved a better seed. The KSR guys showed absolutely no mercy to the Cards. Oftentimes, those guys(and gal) seem very petty, and quite silly, when it comes to Louisville. Helluva bonceback year for the Cards.

[-STAT-]

Louisville definitely got hosed being put on the 8-line, even worse than that was North Carolina actually getting in with only 1 Q1 win to their name, underperforming most of the season. Seen where the committee chair is the AD at UNC, but he recused himself from any & all conversations about UNC, now do you honestly think that made a bit of difference? The others on the committee had been around him the whole time and thought well we can't just say yeah UNC sucks they don't deserve to be in, and then bring their AD back in and tell him that, so there was definitely more to it than tradition & history of the program. Teams that got big time robbed? West Virginia & Indiana, and even Boise St, but there wasn't as many bid stealers this time around, but WVU was the first team left out, so they got screwed the most by UNC getting in.

I think Michigan got hosed somewhat as well, literally just coming off winning the BIG 10 Championship, and they get a 5 seed, while Wisconsin was on the 3 line.

This is honestly the best draw Kentucky has had in years, and of course we're so depleted by injuries, just makes it that much tougher, but I really like the prospects of a Sweet 16 matchup against Tennessee, but beating them 3 times in the same season would be a tall task.

How about the West Region? By far the toughest in the Tournament. You got 2x defending champion UCONN as the 8 seed, then then 7-10 matchup pitting Kansas-Arkansas w/ the winner potentially playing 2 seed St. Johns, could we get Pitino-Cal 2nd round? Wouldn't mind that a bit.

Upset specials: One that really jumps off the page is 11/6 matchup, Drake over Missouri. Drake has a player named Bennett Sturtz, for those who haven't got to see him play, make sure to tune into this game, he is the real deal, can score at every level, high energy & effort defensively, he could be one of those players who everyone is talking about toward the end of next weekend. Even tho they've played great down the stretch, I think one popular or trendy upset is VCU over BYU, another 6/11 matchup. Shaka Smart really built an incredible culture & set a solid foundation of toughness, hard nosed defensive effort when he was at VCU, and despite a few coaching changes, those characteristics and attributes haven't changed over time, and I think they have more than enough physicality & toughness to handle BYU. Another one I can see happening if they can rebound the ball, Yale over Texas A&M, Aggies are great at offensive rebounding, if Yale can maintain position and just crash on long shots, they have more than enough offense to pull off the upset.

Those are the upsets I'm confident in and will definitely pick to happen, other ones that I am not 100% confident in but wouldn't surprise to see happen, High Point over Purdue 4/13 matchup, (how Purdue got on the 4-line is beyond me, the love affair with them all season has been strange), Lipscomb over Iowa St, interesting ploy by the Cyclones, waiting till after the selection show to announce their best player Gilbert is out for the whole tournament, probably wouldn't have gotten on the 3-line if they'd announced before selection show. Could see UC San Diego over Michigan in the dreaded 5/12 matchup where upsets always happen, then the 5/12 in the west, Colorado St over Memphis.

All in all, I think this is a solid tournament. Haven't filled out a bracket yet but getting ready to.

[Bluecat]

No guarantees in tournament time but I feel with the draw UK has a great shot at Sweet 16 with a potential 3rd meeting against Tennessee.

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How about the possible second round matchup between Cal and Pitinio!?!?!?!?!

[Old School Hound]

Hold on a second, little BGR thorobreds, That potential second game against Illinois will be quite the challenge. That's a game would could lose if we don't play well.

[-STAT-]

Hold on  a second, little BGR thorobreds, That potential second game against Illinois will be quite the challenge. That's a game would could lose if we don't play well.

Illinois is a good team, but just like Kentucky they've dealt with a ton of injuries and even sickness that derailed this team at one point in the season. They're still a consistently good team, and well coached by Brad Underwood. If it turns out to be Illinois, definitely will be a tough game, they've got some good size, and depth to back up the front court starters, but tend to lapse some defensively, whomever it may be, definitely will have their hands full with Illinois or Texas/Xavier.

[Cactus Jack]

Paging Cactus Jack... 1...2....3

I want to hear your analysis, Jack...

I usually try to look at Vegas' lines in the openers to get a feel on who is most likely to be upset. It obviously doesn't always come to fruition and I'll pick at least one or two games against their conventional wisdom, but, for instance, if every other game on the 5-12 seed line is between a 6.5 to 8.5 point spread and there's one that's only -2.5, I take a very hard look at taking an upset in that one.

I had mentioned in one of the other threads that I thought UC San Diego would be a trendy upset pick this season. This year didn't seem to have a huge bubble, and they were one of the few non-power conference schools who could have withstood a loss in their conference tournament but have still received a bid. I still like them.

Also mentioned McNeese and Yale in one of my previous posts but almost wonder if all of these schools are a little too trendy.

Drake is another team I'd mentioned before, but Missouri could be a bad matchup because of how much they score and how slow Drake wants to play. O/U is currently at 133.5, which seems to favor the Bulldogs. For all I talk about not liking teams playing slow with tons of high leverage possessions, Drake's use of this strategy is something that makes perfect sense.

High Point is getting some mention nationally, and I'm not really a huge fan of Purdue. Liberty is not getting a lot of love nationally (and plenty have speculated about why no major conference will touch them), but I like them to play Oregon close, even on the West Coast in Climate Pledge Arena.

I think at least two, but maybe three of the teams mentioned above pull off upsets.


South Region:

Iowa State has been banged up all year and they struggle with turnovers. Something about teams who press don't like to be pressed. Given, Chris Beard's Ole Miss squad looks like they'll be in good shape in that bracket. Could see them in the Sweet 16, Elite Eight, or Final Four. Auburn got a really favorable draw. They'd owe Texas A&M one. Michigan could give them some problems because of their size, especially if they get the Tigers in foul trouble, but they could also join the Aggies in getting bounced in the first round.


West Region:

Florida and St. John's would be quite the styles clash if chalk holds. The winner of UConn/Oklahoma could be dangerous in the second round, especially if it's the Huskies. Memphis/Colorado State has a very weird line. Nothing would surprise me with Maryland. Bottom of the West has a bunch of good teams with visible flaws-- St. John's scoring, Texas Tech has problems on the interior and some bad losses, etc. Like the South, this bracket has a couple of really good teams and a pu-pu platter of others where anything goes.


East Region:

Duke looks like the class so long as Flagg is healthy and they get the whistles that we're used to seeing. Good luck to Mississippi State or Baylor playing them in Raleigh. Not sold on Arizona or Oregon and someone has to get to the Sweet 16. VCU/BYU could go either way. I like Alabama in the bottom so long as Nelson is healthy, but I'm not sure he will be. Both St. Mary's and Wisconsin could pose stylistic challenges for the Tide.


Midwest:

Houston has the fewest question marks of the #1 overall seeds but always gets bitten by the injury bug. Sampson is old school and the physical toll of his practices has been questioned. If healthy, they're a very safe team. They've played well against a tough schedule, they grade well in the metrics and no one they'd meet before the Final Four really scares me. Their toughest game before the Elite Eight may be in the second round. Not saying that they'll beat them, or even make it to them, but Illinois is huge and has some skilled shooters (think tall Euros & Canada's Will Riley), but with the way the Cougars trap up on (or "Monsters") screens, so the Illini has personnel to give them fits if they are moving the ball and making shots. I was impressed with Illinois a few times I saw them, but think I caught them on nights they looked good, because they seemed much better than their record indicates. Covered Kentucky elsewhere. Utah State beating UCLA would be a mild upset. I'm not sold on Tennessee. Don't trust Rick Barnes in March. I like Zeigler but the combo of he and Lanier is pretty small and thin.


Final Thoughts:

Auburn lost three of their last four, including their final two regular season games. The last team to lose their last two regular season games but win the championship was 2014 UConn.

My bracket has a lot of chalk from the Sweet 16/Elite Eight on. Picked all four #1 seeds to go to the Final Four for the time being. If I were to pick anyone else, Alabama, St. John's, and Texas Tech would be the choices. Think that this would have been an amazing draw for a fully healthy Kentucky squad.

I picked Auburn to win but don't feel anywhere near as confident as I did three weeks ago. Think that Auburn, Duke, Houston, and Florida are your best four, so the committee got those right. One of those four or Alabama will be your national champion.

[Cactus Jack]

Louisville definitely got hosed being put on the 8-line, even worse than that was North Carolina actually getting in with only 1 Q1 win to their name, underperforming most of the season. Seen where the committee chair is the AD at UNC, but he recused himself from any & all conversations about UNC, now do you honestly think that made a bit of difference? The others on the committee had been around him the whole time and thought well we can't just say yeah UNC sucks they don't deserve to be in, and then bring their AD back in and tell him that, so there was definitely more to it than tradition & history of the program. Teams that got big time robbed? West Virginia & Indiana, and even Boise St, but there wasn't as many bid stealers this time around, but WVU was the first team left out, so they got screwed the most by UNC getting in.

I think Michigan got hosed somewhat as well, literally just coming off winning the BIG 10 Championship, and they get a 5 seed, while Wisconsin was on the 3 line.

This is honestly the best draw Kentucky has had in years, and of course we're so depleted by injuries, just makes it that much tougher, but I really like the prospects of a Sweet 16 matchup against Tennessee, but beating them 3 times in the same season would be a tall task.

How about the West Region? By far the toughest in the Tournament. You got 2x defending champion UCONN as the 8 seed, then then 7-10 matchup pitting Kansas-Arkansas w/ the winner potentially playing 2 seed St. Johns, could we get Pitino-Cal 2nd round? Wouldn't mind that a bit.

Upset specials: One that really jumps off the page is 11/6 matchup, Drake over Missouri. Drake has a player named Bennett Sturtz, for those who haven't got to see him play, make sure to tune into this game, he is the real deal, can score at every level, high energy & effort defensively, he could be one of those players who everyone is talking about toward the end of next weekend. Even tho they've played great down the stretch, I think one popular or trendy upset is VCU over BYU, another 6/11 matchup. Shaka Smart really built an incredible culture & set a solid foundation of toughness, hard nosed defensive effort when he was at VCU, and despite a few coaching changes, those characteristics and attributes haven't changed over time, and I think they have more than enough physicality & toughness to handle BYU. Another one I can see happening if they can rebound the ball, Yale over Texas A&M, Aggies are great at offensive rebounding, if Yale can maintain position and just crash on long shots, they have more than enough offense to pull off the upset.

Those are the upsets I'm confident in and will definitely pick to happen, other ones that I am not 100% confident in but wouldn't surprise to see happen, High Point over Purdue 4/13 matchup, (how Purdue got on the 4-line is beyond me, the love affair with them all season has been strange), Lipscomb over Iowa St, interesting ploy by the Cyclones, waiting till after the selection show to announce their best player Gilbert is out for the whole tournament, probably wouldn't have gotten on the 3-line if they'd announced before selection show. Could see UC San Diego over Michigan in the dreaded 5/12 matchup where upsets always happen, then the 5/12 in the west, Colorado St over Memphis.

All in all, I think this is a solid tournament. Haven't filled out a bracket yet but getting ready to.

Around early-January I thought West Virginia was not only a lock, but on the path to a #5 or #6 seed at the lowest.

They'd beaten then #3 Gonzaga, then #24 Arizona, and then #7 Kansas & had only lost to early-Louisville and Pitt. Then they had explainable losses to Arizona and Houston before beating a short-handed then #2 Iowa State on January 18th. Two top 5 wins, another top 10 win, and a top 25 win with the only bad loss in a rivalry game.

But the wheels fell off in Spokane, Lawrence, Ames... and Morgantown. WVU went 2-6 in their next eight games and had some pretty bad losses in that stretch.

No other quality wins from there and in their last chance to make an impression on the committee, they lost to a Colorado team that was 3-17 in conference play in their Big XII opener. In the lead-in to the conference tournament, they'd only beaten a pretty bad Utah team by 2 and were blown out by Texas Tech and BYU. A win over BYU (in their game that was close) or over Baylor (in a game they lost in OT) and they're probably in, but they lost both. A win over Colorado and they'd have met Houston in the next round and would have been able to eat any type of loss to them there.

Not saying that North Carolina had a significantly better case for being included if you look at the resumes as a whole (because they don't), but West Virginia did themselves absolutely no favors by losing to to Colorado after the way they'd played from mid-January on.

[Cactus Jack]

We're all big on Illinois and they've looked really good at times and many of their struggles came while they had players out with injuries or slowed with illnesses, but I think Xavier handles Texas in Dayton tomorrow and it's not a stretch to see them doing well in Milwaukee too.

X has had their share of injuries this season too and they performed pretty well against their schedule considering. The losses to Georgetown and Villanova don't look great, but they're rival programs with some tradition at least. Look at them from January 7th forward and you can see why I don't think it will be a cakewalk. They definitely have the potential to be a much more formidable opponent than Troy.

I think Illinois wins and that a good dark horse to go deep because they're really unique in the kind of matchup problems that they present-- they have a lot of really long, extremely skilled players mixed with a bunch of really tough, hard-nosed Chicago area kids who bring the grit that Euros are sometimes accused of lacking; but I won't be shocked if Xavier upsets them.

[SEKYFAN]

Louisville should have received a better seed and face a very tough first round matchup because of it. I'm not sure how it's fair for Auburn to possibly face the Cards in Lexington either.

No way that 14 out of the 16 teams in the SEC should be in the tourney. I say 10-11 max should have made it.

[4 Quarters]

Louisville should have received a better seed and face a very tough first round matchup because of it.  I'm not sure how it's fair for Auburn to possibly face the Cards in Lexington either. 

No way that 14 out of the 16 teams in the SEC should be in the tourney.  I say 10-11 max should have made it.

I totally agree with you on the SEC count.  Your thoughts are justified as Texas has gone down.

[-STAT-]

Live update, Creighton got hot in the first half whenever Louisville cut it to 3, Creighton currently up by 16 in the 2nd half.