[Cactus Jack]

Some quick and very oversimplified background information: the ACC signed a grant of rights (television deal) at what turned out to be a very inopportune time for them. It was drafted in 2013, which was around the time the SEC added Missouri and Texas A&M and the ACC was set to add Louisville. Their grant of rights was amended in 2016. In total, the package is estimated to be worth around $617 million, which is around $200 million behind what the SEC and Big Ten are getting in a similar period. What's more problematic is that they are locked until 2036.

Florida State and Clemson have now sued the ACC. Without getting too deep into the weeds, they want to break the contract and/or challenge the financial penalties should they leave the conference. Clemson's suit was filed within the last week or so, and the ACC countersued the following day. 

What's clear is this: football is the primary revenue driver for college's Athletics Departments. The Seminoles and Tigers, two of the ACC's most successful teams both in past and recent history, see a growing gap between themselves and the expanding SEC and Big Ten. They might not mind staying the ACC if the money was better, but they see the writing on the wall-- stay in a conference and continue to fall behind in revenue and prestige or make an extremely expensive decision to leave because they feel that they can't afford not to. To put this in perspective, under the current contract, the exit fee alone is $120 million and additional damages would be expected to accrue.


Ultimately there are a few ways this works: 1.) the agreement is mostly upheld and the schools feel they’re stuck; 2.) the schools are able to litigate/further negotiate new terms, a buyout, and/or a forfeiture of rights; or 3.) the conference dissolves entirely. 
While Florida State and Clemson are at the forefront, other members of the conference are nervously watching developments and making their own contingency plans.

It's been reported that Clemson, FSU, Miami, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Virginia, and Virginia Tech could form a coalition that forces dissolution or at least wields enough bargaining power to leverage their collective interest, but this would likely be challenged by contractual language that requires the conference's approval of such a drastic action.


However things unfold, once the dominoes begin to fall, there are tons of possible outcomes.

If only Florida State and Clemson walk away (likely in the event that they are the only football programs attractive enough to get some type of deal from another conference that throws them a financial lifeline while they try to survive the next decade), then it's possible that the ACC adds some more programs-- schools like an SMU or Tulane are probably the leading candidates to be absorbed; the ideal ACC candidate will have strong academics, a large geographical footprint that isn't too far from the conference's existing base, recent attempts to (re)build their athletics, and a desire to jump headfirst into a bigger conference. If you go further north, a UConn or UMass checks some boxes as well. I cannot see a James Madison program that has a large student body and is investing in athletics, but doesn’t have strong academics and is in an already saturated Virginia. Likewise, Liberty is too controversial-- they've made overtures to larger conferences that have already made it clear that they want nothing to do with them.


If the conference disbands entirely, it's a free-for-all as to who goes where. The SEC has stated that they're content at 16 teams. Still, if we pretend that North Carolina and Virginia wouldn't turn their noses up at being associated with the SEC's academics, I don't see the conference turning them away. This would add the Charlotte and Washington DC television markets, give a contiguous geographic footprint (which is a big deal to the SEC, who currently doesn't have a foothold in North Carolina) & adds two very marketable and competitive programs. If not UNC and UVA, then Virginia Tech and North Carolina State fit the same criteria, albeit to a lesser extent.


Where things get dicey for the SEC: if Clemson, Florida State, or Miami come calling, do the conference members honor the often alluded to "gentlemen's agreement" that any expansion that adds a new member from a state where an existing conference member already resides requires the informal approval of that member? This was much talked about during the expansion to include Missouri and A&M, and revisited when it was reported that Texas A&M wasn't exactly fond of Texas being added. I can't imagine that South Carolina wants Clemson, Georgia wants Georgia Tech, or Kentucky wants Louisville. I also can't imagine that an already beat-up Florida wants to see Florida State or Miami on equal footing (though it may not matter in a state so large).


The ACC schools that are seemingly in the worst positions are Louisville, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Boston College, and Pittsburgh. All but the Demon Deacons have a short history in the ACC and aren't located close to other members and the conference’s home base, & none have the same combination of fans, academics, tradition, and markets as the others. More than that, there's not an obvious fit for what conference they’d end up in, especially if they were all were searching for a new home at once. Say what you want about cities like Boston and Pittsburgh but I promise you that in pro sports towns with teams as successfully entrenched as the Celtics or Steelers, the majority of the sports fan’s number one interest isn’t with the NCAA. 
 

The SEC will be fine regardless of how this plays out, at least in the short term. The Big 10’s expansion looks too broad and aggressive—it will be a cluster to have Washington, Oregon, USC and UCLA playing Penn State, Rutgers and Maryland, especially in non or lower revenue sports.

I think the Big 10’s plan works much better if they’d added Oklahoma and Texas, then split into East & West divisions who met for a championship (West: Washington, Oregon, USC, UCLA, Nebraska, Texas, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota; East: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Purdue, Indiana, Illinois, Northwestern, Maryland, Rutgers). As is, the mess they’ve made just feels like there are too many manufactured rivalries that you’d see in a mid-tier bowl game that kicks at 2:00 pm on a Wednesday evening.


If you are the SEC, 16 teams is an ideal conference size in the current landscape unless you are able to add North Carolina and Virginia, but I can also see reasons why commissioners feel like they’re in an arms race and would take NC State and Virginia Tech.

Whether the league members might ever find themselves in a position to politic their way into forcing an Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Missouri, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, or even Kentucky out if it means getting a North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State, Miami or Clemson is an entirely different discussion.