[Old School Hound]

My buddy, Hound05 , mentioned in the other RPI thread how important scheduling is when it comes to a team's playoff positioning and potential playoff success. If playoff positioning is a team's priority, then how you schedule is VITALLY important . There are thee factors that are weighted in to a team's RPI rating: 

1) Your team's winning percentage(value-based on class) - weighted 35%
2) Your opponents' winning percentage - weighted 35%
3) Your opponents' opponents winning percentage - weighted 30%

So, if RPI is a main consideration in your scheduling, then you want to try to schedule opponents that you think you can win against BUT opponents that will win a lot of games and will, themselves, schedule some strong opponents. It can be a tricky balance. Schedule a  lot of mediocre to poor teams and your WP will be high but your OWP will suffer.  In Boyle County's case, their WP is good, their OWP is good, but they have a poor OOWP(Opponents' opponents winning percentage), which drags down their rating. If the Reb's OOWP was anywhere near that of Corbin or Lex Cath, they would be #1 in RPI, even with their loss to Catholic.

Let's look at how much value each of Corbin' opponent added to their total RPI through the first even games.  

Anyone want to take a guess which two Corbin opponents resulted in the largest share of RPI points for the Hounds?  How about the two opponents which added the least to Corbin's RPI total ?

Now that you have your guesses, let see what the mathematics says.  

CORBIN'S OPPONENT     CORBIN'S  (WP) RPI PTS     (OWP) RPI PTS           OOWP RPI PTS    Tot RPI CONTRIBUTION      ( % )

Pikeville                             0.03289408                       0.05401850               0.032457988           0.11937044         15.39 %

Whitley Co.                        0.05750870                       0.00724500               0.03355929             0.09831299         12.68  % 

Franklin County                  0.05000000                       0.02391450               0.03038057             0.10429507          13.45  %

Pulaski County                    0.05750870                       0.04639300               0.01972457             0.12362627         15.94  %
              
Somerset                           0.03781700                        0.03008350               0.02961943            0.09751993          12.57  %
   
Simon Kenton                     0.06613650                        0.03224600               0.02770029            0.12608279          16.26  %

Knox Central                       0.05000000                        0.03349900               0.02291614            0.10641514          13.72  %


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So, if you said  Simon Kenton and Pulaski County gave the biggest boots to Corbin's RPI, you would be correct.  Somerset and Whitley County added the least points to the Hounds' RPI.  If you think these differences are small and inconsequential, you would be very wrong. The current difference between the RPI's of Corbin and Lex Cath  is a meager  0.00488.   So, even a  0.01 contribution to a RPI would be huge.   I would like to have see the Hounds add a 5A team like Highlands, who the Hound would have beaten this season but a team that would have been a boost for the RPI versus Campbell County, who will not add near a much value. Also, a team like  North Laurel would give the RPI more benefit than would Somerset or Whitley.  Of course,  you cannot always schedule everyone you would like to but if RPI is a big consideration when scheduling, then schedule up in class against pretty good teams who schedule good opponents.

Comments??

[Bull got out!]

No doubt about it, scheduling is the big deal when it comes to RPI..

RPI is like my door hinge in the basement that squeekes, it needs to be tweeked badly..

AS time goes, RPI will cause scheduling to become much harder....

[Hoot Gibson]

I don't dispute your conclusions, OSH, and I appreciate the number crunching that you have done, but I don't think that a team's RPI is as important as scheduling teams that will best prepare a team for the playoffs. In other words, a team whose goal is to win a state title should, within reason, schedule the strongest teams that play styles matching those of teams that are top contenders in their class. 

Johnson Central's schedule has typically been weak overall because of its mandatory district games but they have tried to schedule non-district games over the years with teams that are either strong passing teams or teams that are very athletic and have outstanding quarterbacks. As far as I can tell, that strategy has not changed since the RPI has been adopted by the KHSAA for seeding purposes. Teams in metro areas like NKY, Louisville, and Lexington have the advantage of the close proximity of potential in-state opponents that benefit a team's RPI and offer competitive games for team development. Absent that advantage, Johnson Central has opted to schedule some challenging out of state games that cap their RPI each season. I think that has been the best strategy in JC's case.

Cathedral in Indianapolis is an extreme example of a team that seeks to play the best available competition in the regular season to prepare for the playoffs. Cathedral has often started the season with a losing streak but has won state titles after starting 0-4 or 0-5. They schedule some of the best 6A teams in Indianapolis, Louisville, Cincinnati, etc., every season. Trinity is the best example of a team that plays a strong non-district schedule by a Kentucky school. If Trinity fails to win a title this season, then it will be the first time in 20 years that Trinity has gone longer than 2 seasons without winning a title.

Corbin is playing a strong schedule this season that should prepare them for the playoffs, yet they could go undefeated in the regular season and still slip to #2 in 4A RPI. Johnson Central has played a weaker schedule but they have played against several excellent quarterbacks and wide receivers and pass defense has been a weakness for JC over the years, and a weakness that JC has tried to overcome through scheduling. I would love to see JC play Pulaski County every year in place of an out of state team but scheduling Ironton this season provided a great challenge that will hopefully pay off in the post-season.

[Old School Hound]

I don't dispute your conclusions, OSH, and I appreciate the number crunching that you have done, but I don't think that a team's RPI is as important as scheduling teams that will best prepare a team for the playoffs. In other words, a team whose goal is to win a state title should, within reason, schedule the strongest teams that play styles matching those of teams that are top contenders in their class. 

Johnson Central's schedule has typically been weak overall because of its mandatory district games but they have tried to schedule non-district games over the years with teams that are either strong passing teams or teams that are very athletic and have outstanding quarterbacks. As far as I can tell, that strategy has not changed since the RPI has been adopted by the KHSAA for seeding purposes. Teams in metro areas like NKY, Louisville, and Lexington have the advantage of the close proximity of potential in-state opponents that benefit a team's RPI and offer competitive games for team development. Absent that advantage, Johnson Central has opted to schedule some challenging out of state games that cap their RPI each season. I think that has been the best strategy in JC's case.

Cathedral in Indianapolis is an extreme example of a team that seeks to play the best available competition in the regular season to prepare for the playoffs. Cathedral has often started the season with a losing streak but has won state titles after starting 0-4 or 0-5. They schedule some of the best 6A teams in Indianapolis, Louisville, Cincinnati, etc., every season. Trinity is the best example of a team that plays a strong non-district schedule by a Kentucky school. If Trinity fails to win a title this season, then it will be the first time in 20 years that Trinity has gone longer than 2 seasons without winning a title.

Corbin is playing a strong schedule this season that should prepare them for the playoffs, yet they could go undefeated in the regular season and still slip to #2 in 4A RPI. Johnson Central has played a weaker schedule but they have played against several excellent quarterbacks and wide receivers and pass defense has been a weakness for JC over the years, and a weakness that JC has tried to overcome through scheduling. I would love to see JC play Pulaski County every year in place of an out of state team but scheduling Ironton this season provided a great challenge that will hopefully pay off in the post-season.

Hoot, I don't disagree. I'm not saying a team should necessarily go the route  making RPI the biggest factor in how they schedule. I was just saying that if that is the main priority then what I posted would be the way to go. As you outlined there is value in scheduling teams that will offer challenges that will make you better come playoff time, even though it may cost you in terms of RPI.  Plus, there is some value in local rivalries. Corbin and Middlesboro were long time rivals that I'm sure some fans would love to see renewed.  I have a healthy respect for numbers and analytics but I don't subscribe to living by the numbers in every respect.(just most of the time---LOL)

[Corbin]

Scheduling out of state teams hurt the RPI correct? I remember hearing last year that the little school out of NC didn't count towards Corbin's RPI and ultimately cost them come playoff time.

[Old School Hound]

Scheduling out of state teams hurt the RPI correct? I remember hearing last year that the little school out of NC didn't count towards Corbin's RPI and ultimately cost them come playoff time.

Good question.  

A win over an out of state team  is counted the same as a win against a team in the same class as your team. For example, when Corbin beat the team from NC they received a value of 1.00000 to be figured in when calculating their WP, the same as a win over Franklin County. However, where it could affect the RPI slightly is in the OWP. An out-of-state school gives you a 0.51060 rating OWP for that game, which is then averaged in with all the other OWP on your schedule.  An opponent with a OWP of 0. 51060 is not great but it's still MUCH better than , say, what Whitley County or Campbell County(KY) will give you.  

To make a long story short, playing an out of state school is not gonna adversely affect your RPI to any significant degree.  What you heard is incorrect. The out-of state school's game absolutely does count in the RPI calculations.

[Corbin]

Scheduling out of state teams hurt the RPI correct? I remember hearing last year that the little school out of NC didn't count towards Corbin's RPI and ultimately cost them come playoff time.

Good question.  

A win over an out of state team  is counted the same as a win against a team in the same class as your team. For example, when Corbin beat the team from NC they received a value of 1.00000 to be figured in when calculating their WP, the same as a win over Franklin County. However, where it could affect the RPI slightly is in the OWP. An out-of-state school gives you a 0.51060 rating OWP for that game, which is then averaged in with all the other OWP on your schedule.  An opponent with a OWP of 0. 51060 is not great but it's still MUCH better than , say, what Whitley County or Campbell County(KY) will give you.  

To make a long story short, playing an out of state school is not gonna adversely affect your RPI to any significant degree.  What you heard is incorrect. The out-of state school's game absolutely does count in the RPI calculations.

Thanks on clarification. RPI confuses me to death.