[Cactus Jack]

Obligatory post that I make almost yearly prior to the Sweet 16 draw.

This gives a good frame of reference for later discussions about who got a good or bad draw and posting before the draw takes place eliminates any bias.

This won't be perfect-- some regions may have one really strong team that can play with almost anyone but the region would send a weak representative if they were upset. Other regions might not have a favorite to win it all, but are pretty balanced and usually send a strong representative once the dust settles. 

Thoughts? I'll share my rankings later.

[Gridiron_Raid]

I have done this before, and for years been slandered. But I think now having a former 13th player playing for the rockets and beating the hell out of the Vols, I shouldn’t be attacked for my high ranking of my own region.

1. 11th
no explanation needed, other than 3 of the top 5 teams in the state
2. 7th
St. X, Manuel, Male, Ballard, on and on
3. 4th
BG, Warren Cent, and Clinton… but then there’s a HUGE DROP OFF to the next team. Still this region has been so consistent it’s hard for me to put the 13th above them.
4. 13th
I know I know, here comes the bias. BUTTTTT it’s not crazy to say the 7th best team in the 13th region (Knox/North/Clay take your worst pick) wins a few of the regions across the state. They have nearly elite teams at the top in Bell, Harlan County, and South Laurel who are top 25 teams in my book and are deep all the way through. I’ll take the 5-8 teams in the 13th against any other 5-8 of a region outside the 11th.
5. 9th
No team will stand out, but are very deep. Many teams from this region have been ranked at some point recently in some of the state polls
6. 6th
Butler, PRP, and Jtown, and then a deep dive
7. 1st
So top heavy in Calloway and Marshall
8. 5th
Same with the top heavy Green and Adair.
9. 8th
Probably the most disappointing 8th region I have seen in years.
10. 10th
GRC, period. The best of the rest isn’t terrible but isn’t amazing either.
11. 16th
Ashland and Boyd, plus I have seen a little bit improvement out of the rest of the region so far this year.
12. 12th
DCA makes it so top heavy, but they also have the pulaskis, mercer, boyle. Makes it a little deeper than the four below them.
13. 2nd
Henderson is the favorites to win it, but no travis perry to elevate this region any higher. Deeper than the 14th from 2-10.
14. 14th
I never thought I would say it, but the other two regions below them are SO FAR DOWN that the 14th has finally risen from the bottom tier of kentucky high school basketball. Not by much, but Hazard elevates them so much right now. Teams like Perry and Breathitt always make that 14th region tournament interesting. I’m sorry but the other two are so atrocious right now or they would still be at the bottom. It’s just hard to say with a team in the top 5 of the state that you are at the bottom of this list.
15. 3rd
This might be the most middle of the pack absolutely no team that makes you wake up region I have ever seen. There’s no team that has any good win outside of Owensboro Cath in the all-a. Daviess has one good win over henderson 3 months ago but since then has been lackadaisical.
16. 15th
Sorry but they have taken the bottom spot from the 14th. No top team that blows you away, no depth. Martin County and Johnson Central just isn’t enough to ride the lightning and jump any other region. Although they do have one of the best athletes in the state in Keathley.

Sorry not sorry.

[Ky1976]

I will chime in on the 16th region only.

Ashland and Boyd are currently the two leading teams. Unfortunately, I have not observed any significant improvement from the other teams, resulting in a generally poor level of basketball performance.

[Gridiron_Raid]

I will chime in on the 16th region only.

Ashland and Boyd are currently the two leading teams. Unfortunately, I have not observed any significant improvement from the other teams, resulting in a generally poor level of basketball performance.

I think Fleming has shown in their non region games they are a competitive team. They beat Harlan County, almost knocked of DCA, played good with montgomery, just not very good in the region games. The region as a whole isn’t great, but the bottom isn’t worse than some of the others.

[Ky1976]

Although these teams in the 16th region have respectable records, it does not necessarily mean they have faced the same level of competition as Ashland. For instance, Fleming recently lost to a Russell team that is not considered very strong. Most coaches in the 16th chase 20-win seasons.

[Cactus Jack]

Some of these are going to be listed in numeric order when on the same tier. The region's top team per current RPI will be listed, but the region's past success (~25 years) is also strongly considered.

Tier 1:
7th & 11th

7: St. X (.70)
11: Douglass (.72)

- Year in and year out, the two regions no one else wants to draw. Even their weakest representatives have beaten a few really good teams to get to there.


Tier 2:
4th, 6th & 9th

4: Clinton Co. (.68)
6: Butler (.66)
9: Cooper (.65)

- Good depth, so a district or regional upset won't tank their chances. The 4th tends to be the exception here if Bowling Green or Warren Central is upset and a school like Russellville isn't loaded. 6th always plays well and is always in the top half, but never seems to win it all. Up until roughly a decade ago, the 9th had a way of slowing things down so much that they kept everyone else in the game, but they've had really strong 15 or so years.


Tier 3:
8th, 10th, 12th

8: South Oldham (.66)
10: George Rogers Clark (.67)
12: Danville Christian (.68)

- Danville Christian has a nice mix of wins out (against non-region schools, away from home, etc.). The 12th isn't top-heavy, but I like them as much or more than any of the remaining teams. Think there's a mix of things that would prevent me from picking them to win it all, but think they could get there and cause anyone some problems if they play well and things break right. 8th and 10th have a little more depth than the rest of the regions-- tend to have schools closer to urban areas with larger student populations; that leads to more talent and fewer road trips to face quality competition in season.


Tier 4:
1st

1: Marshall (.71)

- It's tough for me to be a believer in a first region team not named Tilghman, because few have really had success. Usually see teams whose geographic isolation leads to everyone playing each other a bunch of times, which makes gauging them against everyone else even tougher. Would usually have the 2nd Region on this tier or higher, but they seem down this season and this is arguably the best team west of Bowling Green.


Tier 5A:
5th, 13th, 14th, 16th

5: Green Co. (.66)
13: Harlan Co. (.64)
14: Hazard (.70)
16: Ashland Blazer (.64)

- 5th Region usually begins and ends with North Hardin or Elizabethtown. There are teams with high RPIs and decent records, but I'm going to take a wait and see; schools who haven't been in decades can be tough to trust as favorites and it usually goes one of two ways when they get to Rupp-- they play like they're happy to be there or they seize the moment and play like they expect to win. 13th is usually the best or one of the top two mountain regions-- for the first time in awhile, there's not one team that's a runaway favorite there, so mileage may vary on the ultimate representative. Hazard has a really good record in the 14th and Al Holland has forgotten more basketball than I know, but I'll reserve judgment because I've seen the 14th Region hype train take off for so many other teams but few ever deliver-- think some of the best teams in the past 25 years were the late 90's Perry Central teams who got terrible draws. The 16th is to Kentucky high school basketball what Dak Prescott or Ryan Fitzpatrick is to NFL quarterbacks-- good home records, don't really get blown out often, have some staying power even though they force you to play a certain style, and can get you to the point that a contender eliminates you. The Elliott County run around a decade ago was great though, wasn't it?


Tier 5B:
2nd, 3rd

2: Henderson Co. (.63)
3: Owensboro Catholic (.63)

- Typically the 2nd would be somewhere between Tiers 1 and 3. I've always thought that it was one of the most underrated regions. I would not at all be shocked if a Hendo or Madisonville North-Hopkins make me eat these words by ranking them so low this season. See some solid teams in the 3rd but would put them higher if I knew O'Cath would be there in the end-- very well-coached; don't know as much as I'd like about Daviess County. Both of these regions have a few schools that could be a stylistic nightmare for lots of the teams on the tier just above them.


Tier 6:
15th

15: Paintsville (.59)

- Put me on the spot and make me pick a region who'll lose their first game and this is my pick. Never a good sign for the strength of your region when teams have lots of losses to everyone else and all seem to play each other fairly close. I've underrated Pikeville in the past. Paradoxically, the 15th has probably had more legitimate championship contenders than any other mountain region over the past 25 or so years between Paintsville and Shelby Valley, but they've also had plenty of other years where they are one of the two or three weakest in the entire field.

[Gridiron_Raid]

Some of these are going to be listed in numeric order when on the same tier. The region's top team per current RPI will be listed, but the region's past success (~25 years) is also strongly considered.

Tier 1:
7th & 11th

7: St. X (.70)
11: Douglass (.72)

- Year in and year out, the two regions no one else wants to draw. Even their weakest representatives have beaten a few really good teams to get to there.


Tier 2:
4th, 6th & 9th

4: Clinton Co. (.68)
6: Butler (.66)
9: Cooper (.65)

- Good depth, so a district or regional upset won't tank their chances. The 4th tends to be the exception here if Bowling Green or Warren Central is upset and a school like Russellville isn't loaded. 6th always plays well and is always in the top half, but never seems to win it all. Up until roughly a decade ago, the 9th had a way of slowing things down so much that they kept everyone else in the game, but they've had really strong 15 or so years.


Tier 3:
8th, 10th, 12th

8: South Oldham (.66)
10: George Rogers Clark (.67)
12: Danville Christian (.68)

- Danville Christian has a nice mix of wins out (against non-region schools, away from home, etc.). The 12th isn't top-heavy, but I like them as much or more than any of the remaining teams. Think there's a mix of things that would prevent me from picking them to win it all, but think they could get there and cause anyone some problems if they play well and things break right. 8th and 10th have a little more depth than the rest of the regions-- tend to have schools closer to urban areas with larger student populations; that leads to more talent and fewer road trips to face quality competition in season.


Tier 4:
1st

1: Marshall (.71)

- It's tough for me to be a believer in a first region team not named Tilghman, because few have really had success. Usually see teams whose geographic isolation leads to everyone playing each other a bunch of times, which makes gauging them against everyone else even tougher. Would usually have the 2nd Region on this tier or higher, but they seem down this season and this is arguably the best team west of Bowling Green.


Tier 5A:
5th, 13th, 14th, 16th

5: Green Co. (.66)
13: Harlan Co. (.64)
14: Hazard (.70)
16: Ashland Blazer (.64)

- 5th Region usually begins and ends with North Hardin or Elizabethtown. There are teams with high RPIs and decent records, but I'm going to take a wait and see; schools who haven't been in decades can be tough to trust as favorites and it usually goes one of two ways when they get to Rupp-- they play like they're happy to be there or they seize the moment and play like they expect to win. 13th is usually the best or one of the top two mountain regions-- for the first time in awhile, there's not one team that's a runaway favorite there, so mileage may vary on the ultimate representative. Hazard has a really good record in the 14th and Al Holland has forgotten more basketball than I know, but I'll reserve judgment because I've seen the 14th Region hype train take off for so many other teams but few ever deliver-- think some of the best teams in the past 25 years were the late 90's Perry Central teams who got terrible draws. The 16th is to Kentucky high school basketball what Dak Prescott or Ryan Fitzpatrick is to NFL quarterbacks-- good home records, don't really get blown out often, have some staying power even though they force you to play a certain style, and can get you to the point that a contender eliminates you. The Elliott County run around a decade ago was great though, wasn't it?


Tier 5B:
2nd, 3rd

2: Henderson Co. (.63)
3: Owensboro Catholic (.63)

- Typically the 2nd would be somewhere between Tiers 1 and 3. I've always thought that it was one of the most underrated regions. I would not at all be shocked if a Hendo or Madisonville North-Hopkins make me eat these words by ranking them so low this season. See some solid teams in the 3rd but would put them higher if I knew O'Cath would be there in the end-- very well-coached; don't know as much as I'd like about Daviess County. Both of these regions have a few schools that could be a stylistic nightmare for lots of the teams on the tier just above them.


Tier 6:
15th

15: Paintsville (.59)

- Put me on the spot and make me pick a region who'll lose their first game and this is my pick. Never a good sign for the strength of your region when teams have lots of losses to everyone else and all seem to play each other fairly close. I've underrated Pikeville in the past. Paradoxically, the 15th has probably had more legitimate championship contenders than any other mountain region over the past 25 or so years between Paintsville and Shelby Valley, but they've also had plenty of other years where they are one of the two or three weakest in the entire field.

When looking at the past 25 years, you ignore the prime time era of the 13th with bobby keith and also don’t give credit to recently. I ranked them based on this year, I don’t care about what they did before cell phones were invented. Looking at this year going back to 2019ish with the knox central era of dominance, the 13th is in B tier right below 4, 7, 11. Multiple D1 players and now SUPERSTARS, more on the way. And the 3rd best 13th region team was an inch away from beating moreno on his home floor. The past 25 years is what lowers the floor for the 13th, cause there was a stretch where they were F tier.

[Cactus Jack]

When looking at the past 25 years, you ignore the prime time era of the 13th with bobby keith and also don’t give credit to recently. I ranked them based on this year, I don’t care about what they did before cell phones were invented. Looking at this year going back to 2019ish with the knox central era of dominance, the 13th is in B tier right below 4, 7, 11. Multiple D1 players and now SUPERSTARS, more on the way. And the 3rd best 13th region team was an inch away from beating moreno on his home floor. The past 25 years is what lowers the floor for the 13th, cause there was a stretch where they were F tier.

Going back to the 80's is basically cherry-picking a time when the 13th was always one of the best.

I picked the last 25 or so years because the KHSAA scoreboard website goes back to '98, so accessing the info is easier. It's also a nice round number and basically since 2000's.

13th has had surely sent some teams into Rupp that were among the worst in the filed. On the whole though, I think they've usually sent a rep that's a little stronger on average than the 14th or 15th. 15th has had the only State Champion and one of only two state finalists (Paintsville and Harlan Co.), but they've also sent quite a few that were the worst in the field.

The "past 25 years" thing was more a point of reference when all other things were held equal or there wasn't enough information (i.e., first region teams mostly just playing one another).

[LOOKAYANNER]

I think Montgomery County has a decent chance to beat GRC in the 10th region this year. The tournament is at Montgomery, and although they lost to GRC a couple weeks ago it took three overtimes for the Cardinals to do it.

[Ky1976]

I definitely wouldn't bet against Mays.