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10-14-2023, 06:08 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-14-2023, 06:11 PM by Old School Hound.)
I thought I would help out Tom. E. Greer and Dave Cox, who were flunkies in school when it came to math. Corbin has played only nine games, and are rumored to be looking for a 10th opponent. Tommy needs to quit looking for a 10th game to increase his team's RPI... unless, possibly, he can find a 5A or 6A team who has played a strong schedule AND has a good winning percentage.
An illustration why a 10th game may not help much, if at all:
Let's assume, for simplicity , and for purposes of illustration to math simpletons like Greer that a 4A team has played and won 9 games , all against 4A teams. Let's also assume , for simplicity, that each of those nine teams has a 0.6 WP, and that the opponents of those nine opponents , all had a WP of 0.6 .
The team's RPI calculation for the 9 games would be :
WP : (1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1) / 9 = 9/9 = 1.00000
OWP : (0.6+0.6+0.6+0.6+0.6+0.6+0.6+0.6 +0.6)/ 9 = 5.4 / 9 = 0.60000
OOWP : 0.6+0.6+0.6+0.6+0.6+0.6+0.6+0.6+0.6)/9 = 5.4 /9 = 0.60000
RPI = ( .35 * 1.00000 ) + (.35 * 0.60000) + ( .30 * 0.60000) = 0.74000
As you can see, if you win a 10th game against another 4A team with a WP of 0.6 and a OWP of 0.6 , you have 10 numbers now divided by 10, instead of 9 numbers divided by 9. Hence, the averages remain exactly the same , and thus, the WP, OWP, and OOWP do not change(still, 1.00000 , 0.60000, and 0.60000). The RPI remains 0.74000 regardless of whether the team plays nine games or ten games.
Now, what if our teams plays a 10th game, and beats a good 5A team which has a 0.8 WP and a 0.6 OWP. Let's see how much our team's RPI would increase as a result.
RPI = WP: [(9+ 1.15017)/ 10 *.35 ] + OWP : [ ( 5.4 + 0.8)/ 10 * .35 ] + OOWP: [( 5.4 +0.6) /10 * .30] = 0.75226
So, in conclusion, if our team plays a 10th game and beats a GOOD team in a higher class, it certainly can have a positive impact on the RPI. If our team plays a 10th game against an average or below average team in the same class, then the RPI is going to be unchanged, at best, and possibly a little lower, at worst. It is not the NUMBER of games played that affects the RPI, it is the QUALITY of the opponents in the games that are played that matters.
If Corbin could add a Highlands, Scott County, Southwestern, etc... their RPI could benefit. But just adding a game against a middling opponent won't do anything to help, and may even lower the RPI.
Hope this helps, Tommy !!!
An illustration why a 10th game may not help much, if at all:
Let's assume, for simplicity , and for purposes of illustration to math simpletons like Greer that a 4A team has played and won 9 games , all against 4A teams. Let's also assume , for simplicity, that each of those nine teams has a 0.6 WP, and that the opponents of those nine opponents , all had a WP of 0.6 .
The team's RPI calculation for the 9 games would be :
WP : (1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1) / 9 = 9/9 = 1.00000
OWP : (0.6+0.6+0.6+0.6+0.6+0.6+0.6+0.6 +0.6)/ 9 = 5.4 / 9 = 0.60000
OOWP : 0.6+0.6+0.6+0.6+0.6+0.6+0.6+0.6+0.6)/9 = 5.4 /9 = 0.60000
RPI = ( .35 * 1.00000 ) + (.35 * 0.60000) + ( .30 * 0.60000) = 0.74000
As you can see, if you win a 10th game against another 4A team with a WP of 0.6 and a OWP of 0.6 , you have 10 numbers now divided by 10, instead of 9 numbers divided by 9. Hence, the averages remain exactly the same , and thus, the WP, OWP, and OOWP do not change(still, 1.00000 , 0.60000, and 0.60000). The RPI remains 0.74000 regardless of whether the team plays nine games or ten games.
Now, what if our teams plays a 10th game, and beats a good 5A team which has a 0.8 WP and a 0.6 OWP. Let's see how much our team's RPI would increase as a result.
RPI = WP: [(9+ 1.15017)/ 10 *.35 ] + OWP : [ ( 5.4 + 0.8)/ 10 * .35 ] + OOWP: [( 5.4 +0.6) /10 * .30] = 0.75226
So, in conclusion, if our team plays a 10th game and beats a GOOD team in a higher class, it certainly can have a positive impact on the RPI. If our team plays a 10th game against an average or below average team in the same class, then the RPI is going to be unchanged, at best, and possibly a little lower, at worst. It is not the NUMBER of games played that affects the RPI, it is the QUALITY of the opponents in the games that are played that matters.
If Corbin could add a Highlands, Scott County, Southwestern, etc... their RPI could benefit. But just adding a game against a middling opponent won't do anything to help, and may even lower the RPI.
Hope this helps, Tommy !!!
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10-14-2023, 06:31 PM
(10-14-2023, 06:20 PM)jetpilot Wrote: Pikeville having to take forfeit in Dohn Community game instead of just removing the game from schedule resulted in hit to RPI...may be difference in home and road in semis. Good teams should NEVER schedule out of state teams IMHO.
Exactly ! That's why Trinity had about the same RPI as Hazard a year or two ago. You get a poor OWP contribution and a poor OOWP contribution, even if you beat an outstanding out-of-state team. Your team's RPI can actually go down by a beating a really good non-KY team. Corbin, for example, would benefit more with a win over North Laurel or Southwestern than it would with a win over a Tennessee power like Alcoa or Maryville. Just crazy!!!
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