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RPI could easily be improved
#1
RPI isn't a predictor and was never intended to be, but it could easily and dramatically be improved .

#1. Fix the out-of-state issue. Count them correctly and their opponents wins and also slot them in whatever class they would be in Kentucky.
#2. Stop exaggerating the class bonuses. Right now a 6a team counts as a little more than 2.6 wins. Each class should get only a .1 bump. More of a tiebreaker than anything. example
1A = 1.1
2A = 1.2
3A = 1.3
4A = 1.4
5A = 1.5
6A = 1.6 see how that would be way better than counting 6a as 2.6?
#3. Add a home-field advantage. example .9 for a home win and -1.1 for a home loss. Inverse for the road team. 1.1 for a road win and .9 for a road loss. Nothing dramatic but again more of a tie-breaker and an improvement. (the .1 is added or subtracted to the numbers in #2 by the way.
#4. Last but not least a 25 point capped margin of victory and opponents margin of victory. 25 gives you a 50 point range that can be converted into % and added as categories in the RPI.
So to calculate we are still using basic math and free equations that are a big improvement, not Calpreps good as a predictor, but free and improved.
Using the current ratio that KHSAA already uses as 50% and MOV+OMOV as the other 50%. Easy peasy.
#2
Looks like it would quickly put the teams in there place to me with those implements.
#3
(09-22-2021, 09:16 PM)Iam4thecats Wrote: RPI isn't a predictor and was never intended to be, but it could easily and dramatically be improved .

#1. Fix the out-of-state issue. Count them correctly and their opponents wins and also slot them in whatever class they would be in Kentucky.
#2. Stop exaggerating the class bonuses. Right now a 6a team counts as a little more than 2.6 wins. Each class should get only a .1 bump. More of a tiebreaker than anything. example
1A = 1.1
2A = 1.2
3A = 1.3
4A = 1.4
5A = 1.5
6A = 1.6 see how that would be way better than counting 6a as 2.6?
#3. Add a home-field advantage. example .9 for a home win and -1.1 for a home loss. Inverse for the road team. 1.1 for a road win and .9 for a road loss. Nothing dramatic but again more of a tie-breaker and an improvement. (the .1 is added or subtracted to the numbers in #2 by the way.
#4. Last but not least a 25 point capped margin of victory and opponents margin of victory. 25 gives you a 50 point range that can be converted into % and added as categories in the RPI.
So to calculate we are still using basic math and free equations that are a big improvement, not Calpreps good as a predictor, but free and improved.
Using the current ratio that KHSAA already uses as 50% and MOV+OMOV as the other 50%. Easy peasy.
I love all of it except margin of victory. Look I’m not a “participation trophy” guy, but it’s HS. And with that, youd have people running up scores. I know it’s capped at 25, but that wouldn’t stop them. But outside of that, I think that would be a great addition. Maybe up the classes just a tad more. I mean, playing the best team in 1,2,3A isn’t like playing the best team in 6A, and it trickles down to the average teams as well.
#4
The margin of victory is THE tool to make things more accurate. Nothing is stopping blowouts now. Unless you count the 36 point running clock. Great teams actually try to get to 36 as fast as possible so they can play their subs. Calpreps is super accurate and it uses nothing but margin of victory. (modified a little)
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#5
Is there any talk of the KHSAA making a adjustment anytime soon on RPI?
#6
(09-22-2021, 11:08 PM)Bull got out! Wrote: Is there any talk of the KHSAA making a adjustment anytime soon on RPI?
Honestly I’ve not heard anything, but I always said even before it started that RPI was a great start. And it gave room for them to improve the formula. No insider knowledge, but I’d say within 3yrs or so they’ll start tweaking it.
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#7
(09-22-2021, 09:16 PM)Iam4thecats Wrote: RPI isn't a predictor and was never intended to be, but it could easily and dramatically be improved .

#1. Fix the out-of-state issue. Count them correctly and their opponents wins and also slot them in whatever class they would be in Kentucky.
#2. Stop exaggerating the class bonuses. Right now a 6a team counts as a little more than 2.6 wins. Each class should get only a .1 bump. More of a tiebreaker than anything. example
1A = 1.1
2A = 1.2
3A = 1.3
4A = 1.4
5A = 1.5
6A = 1.6 see how that would be way better than counting 6a as 2.6?
#3. Add a home-field advantage. example .9 for a home win and -1.1 for a home loss. Inverse for the road team. 1.1 for a road win and .9 for a road loss. Nothing dramatic but again more of a tie-breaker and an improvement. (the .1 is added or subtracted to the numbers in #2 by the way.
#4. Last but not least a 25 point capped margin of victory and opponents margin of victory. 25 gives you a 50 point range that can be converted into % and added as categories in the RPI.
So to calculate we are still using basic math and free equations that are a big improvement, not Calpreps good as a predictor, but free and improved.
Using the current ratio that KHSAA already uses as 50% and MOV+OMOV as the other 50%. Easy peasy.
1. The out of state rules are garbage
2. The class margins are very important but it has been mathematically proven to be too much, maybe the .1 difference and tiebreaker is too small but 9-1 2a shouldn’t be less that 0-10 6a 
3. home field advantage would be awesome, but would have to be a tiebreaker
4. Margin of victory should and always should be MOST IMPORTANT. A 1 point win and a 50 point win factor in to every ranking as such except for the rpi, where it’s just a w, ridiculous.

Overall i agree with you in some spots but there will never be a perfect system for us all. I know the khsaa would never do this, but if khsaa scoreboard would coincide with maxpreps for rankings, it would be a lot better. I know people like to overlook maxpreps, but it’s only in this state where there are mess ups because so much of a team’s information goes to riherds. If the information was correct on maxpreps for ALL schools, if you look now you can see some that are very much faulted, then i believe that would be the best system to build off of.
#8
I know it will never happen but I would love to see a committee like they have in college football. Get people in the room that know football and have saw these teams play come up with a 1-8 seeding just after 2nd Rd of playoffs. Assign for example 8 members to each class and let them be responsible for seeding only that class. To me this would be better than any computer. This way you could factor in the human element and get the best teams on field in late Nov/Dec
#9
The KHSAA will never factor in margin of victory. They’re not going to incentivize blowing teams out. The goal is to get more kids to play high school athletics, and as long as you got teams trying to beat other teams by 50 that’s not going to happen.
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#10
Pay Calpreps whatever you have to pay them. Use their numbers.
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#11
(09-23-2021, 10:23 AM)FootballFan1999 Wrote: The KHSAA will never factor in margin of victory. They’re not going to incentivize blowing teams out. The goal is to get more kids to play high school athletics, and as long as you got teams trying to beat other teams by 50 that’s not going to happen.
Why not do something like have a scoring scale that considers margin of victory? For example, 1-9 points, 10-19 points, 20-29 points, and 30 or more points margin of victory. A 30 point win would be the same as a 50 point win. That way teams who get to a 30 point lead don't continue to try to score on their opponent to increase their rpi.
#12
“Why use RPI instead of another type of rating system?

A major advantage to the RPI is the transparency that comes along with its accuracy.
The RPI is not a poll, and there is nothing subjective about its calculation as it is solely about calculations based on the data.
The components of the formula are known, and its results can be easily replicated.
In addition, there is no incentive for a team to defeat a team by a higher margin, margin doesn’t matter.

Most of that information came from the initial RPI review during 2017-18 when it became apparent that their system was proving to be a good method to rank teams solely based on results, with no incentive for blow-out games, etc.
Original discussions involved various factors including combining the existing computer ratings service results, etc., however it was apparent that all of those inherently rewarded teams for “running up the score”, which was never desired.“

Straight off the KHSAA website. Don’t see anything changing for anytime soon.
#13
(09-23-2021, 09:38 PM)FootballFan1999 Wrote: “Why use RPI instead of another type of rating system?

A major advantage to the RPI is the transparency that comes along with its accuracy.
The RPI is not a poll, and there is nothing subjective about its calculation as it is solely about calculations based on the data.
The components of the formula are known, and its results can be easily replicated.
In addition, there is no incentive for a team to defeat a team by a higher margin, margin doesn’t matter.

Most of that information came from the initial RPI review during 2017-18 when it became apparent that their system was proving to be a good method to rank teams solely based on results, with no incentive for blow-out games, etc.
Original discussions involved various factors including combining the existing computer ratings service results, etc., however it was apparent that all of those inherently rewarded teams for “running up the score”, which was never desired.“

Straight off the KHSAA website. Don’t see anything changing for anytime soon.

10/4

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