[Stardust]

Optimizer
Why he can win: No owner or breeder has won more Derbys than Calumet Farm, and Optimizer’s owner-breeder Brad Kelley is widely expected to become the fabled Lexington farm’s new owner any day now. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas knows how to win this thing, with four. Optimizer is bred for the Derby distance — or really the Belmont.

Why he can’t: He might not get in. He’s bred to run 1½ miles — on grass. Horses don’t win the Derby after finishing ninth in their last prep.