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05-03-2012, 02:17 PM
Do we got any predictions on here?
1-Daddy Long Legs-Colm OâDonoghue-30-1
2-Optimizer-Jon Court-50-1
3-Take Charge Indy-Calvin Borel-15-1
4-Union Rags-Julien Leparoux-9-2
5-Dullahan-Kent Desormeaux-8-1
6-Bodemeister-Mike Smith-4-1
7-Rousing Sermon-Jose Lezcano-50-1
8-Creative Cause-Joel Rosario-12-1
9-Trinniberg-Willie Martinez-50-1
10-Daddy Knows Best-Garrett Gomez-15-1
11-Alpha-Rajiv Maragh-5-1
12-Prospective-Luis Contreras-30-1
13-Went the Day Well-John Velazquez-20-1
14-Hansen-Ramon Dominguez-10-1
15-Gemologist-Javier Castellano-6-1
16-El Padrino-Rafael Bejarano-20-1
17-Done Talking-Sheldon Russell-50-1
18-Sabercat-Corey Nakatani-30-1
19-Iâll Have Another-Martin Gutierrez-12-1
20-Liaison-Martin Garcia-50-1
1-Daddy Long Legs-Colm OâDonoghue-30-1
2-Optimizer-Jon Court-50-1
3-Take Charge Indy-Calvin Borel-15-1
4-Union Rags-Julien Leparoux-9-2
5-Dullahan-Kent Desormeaux-8-1
6-Bodemeister-Mike Smith-4-1
7-Rousing Sermon-Jose Lezcano-50-1
8-Creative Cause-Joel Rosario-12-1
9-Trinniberg-Willie Martinez-50-1
10-Daddy Knows Best-Garrett Gomez-15-1
11-Alpha-Rajiv Maragh-5-1
12-Prospective-Luis Contreras-30-1
13-Went the Day Well-John Velazquez-20-1
14-Hansen-Ramon Dominguez-10-1
15-Gemologist-Javier Castellano-6-1
16-El Padrino-Rafael Bejarano-20-1
17-Done Talking-Sheldon Russell-50-1
18-Sabercat-Corey Nakatani-30-1
19-Iâll Have Another-Martin Gutierrez-12-1
20-Liaison-Martin Garcia-50-1
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05-05-2012, 12:49 AM
In such a wide-open field as this Kentucky Derby, how can you tell which horses are peaking at the right time and are the best equipped to run 1¼ miles? One handicapping theory addresses that by looking at how fast horses are running at the end of their final prep races, usually at 11/8 miles.
Anything in the 12-second range for the final eighth-mile of a 11/8-mile prep is regarded as impressive, as is anything under 38 seconds for the final three-eighths.
Twelve of the horses in today’s race came in under the 13.0 and 38.0 cutoffs, a sign of the depth of this field.
The final time of a race, which can be a function of track conditions and pace, is not considered as much of a factor with this theory.
In 15 of the past 21 years, including 10 of the past 13 in which the Derby winner’s final prep was at 11/8 miles, he ran the final furlong in 13 seconds or less. (Animal Kingdom, however, blew this theory by plodding the last eighth in the Vinery Racing Spiral in 13.4.)
Also, 15 of the past 21 Derby winners ran their last three-eighths in 38 seconds or less in their final 11/8-mile prep. (Again, Animal Kingdom bucked the trend, coming home in 39.3.)
The fastest finishing times in this field were by Toyota Blue Grass winner Dullahan (11.9, 35.7), though that came on Keeneland’s Polytrack. The fastest finishes on dirt were Bodemeister’s 12.0 in his Arkansas Derby victory and Creative Cause’s 36.0 in losing the Santa Anita Derby by a nose.
Bodemeister ran his last three-eighths in 37.3, while Creative Cause’s final eighth was 12.4.
Unbeaten Wood Memorial winner Gemologist is a split at 13.2 and 38.0, which is right on the three-eighths number. Alpha, the Wood runner-up, is right on the bubble in both categories at 13.0 and 38.0.
Only four horses fail to meet either criterion. Daddy Long Legs, winner of the 13/16-mile UAE Derby, and the sprinter Trinniberg did not run at 11/8 miles.
The computations take into account how far a horse is behind the leader at the finish and with an eighth-mile and three-eighths of a mile to go. It also assumes the accuracy of the Equibase race charts, for which human observation is used to determine margins at the points of call before the finish.
Synthetic surfaces such as Keeneland’s throw a wrinkle in this because their races often are run like grass races, which tend to start slowly and finish fast.
The fractional and adjusted final times this year were calculated by the Twitter feed @derbycontenders.
View Comments | Share your thoughts »http://www.courier-journal.com/article/2...t|Sports|p
Anything in the 12-second range for the final eighth-mile of a 11/8-mile prep is regarded as impressive, as is anything under 38 seconds for the final three-eighths.
Twelve of the horses in today’s race came in under the 13.0 and 38.0 cutoffs, a sign of the depth of this field.
The final time of a race, which can be a function of track conditions and pace, is not considered as much of a factor with this theory.
In 15 of the past 21 years, including 10 of the past 13 in which the Derby winner’s final prep was at 11/8 miles, he ran the final furlong in 13 seconds or less. (Animal Kingdom, however, blew this theory by plodding the last eighth in the Vinery Racing Spiral in 13.4.)
Also, 15 of the past 21 Derby winners ran their last three-eighths in 38 seconds or less in their final 11/8-mile prep. (Again, Animal Kingdom bucked the trend, coming home in 39.3.)
The fastest finishing times in this field were by Toyota Blue Grass winner Dullahan (11.9, 35.7), though that came on Keeneland’s Polytrack. The fastest finishes on dirt were Bodemeister’s 12.0 in his Arkansas Derby victory and Creative Cause’s 36.0 in losing the Santa Anita Derby by a nose.
Bodemeister ran his last three-eighths in 37.3, while Creative Cause’s final eighth was 12.4.
Unbeaten Wood Memorial winner Gemologist is a split at 13.2 and 38.0, which is right on the three-eighths number. Alpha, the Wood runner-up, is right on the bubble in both categories at 13.0 and 38.0.
Only four horses fail to meet either criterion. Daddy Long Legs, winner of the 13/16-mile UAE Derby, and the sprinter Trinniberg did not run at 11/8 miles.
The computations take into account how far a horse is behind the leader at the finish and with an eighth-mile and three-eighths of a mile to go. It also assumes the accuracy of the Equibase race charts, for which human observation is used to determine margins at the points of call before the finish.
Synthetic surfaces such as Keeneland’s throw a wrinkle in this because their races often are run like grass races, which tend to start slowly and finish fast.
The fractional and adjusted final times this year were calculated by the Twitter feed @derbycontenders.
View Comments | Share your thoughts »http://www.courier-journal.com/article/2...t|Sports|p
05-05-2012, 12:50 AM
What is widely regarded as the deepest Kentucky Derby field in years goes to the post at 6:24 p.m. today at Churchill Downs.
Some years the Derby is tough to decipher because the horses are inconsistent and the guessing game includes whether they will bring their top effort or not. The hallmark of much of this field is that even in defeat, they have run exceedingly well.
“Some really good horses are going to get beat a long way,” said trainer Steve Asmussen, who sends out the stretch-running duo of Sunland Derby winner Daddy Nose Best and Arkansas Derby third-place finisher Sabercat. “I’m so curious to see the chart of this race, because there are so many scenarios or possibilities.”
Headed by champion Hansen, an incredible nine horses — including the top five finishers — from the 13 who contested the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall over this same surface return for the 138th Derby. Only 13 of the previous 27 Juvenile winners even made the Derby, with Hansen the first since Street Sense prevailed in 2007.
“Usually people say, ‘Well, this crop might be a little soft,’ ” said trainer Pat Byrne, who hopes jockey Calvin Borel can get his fourth Derby victory in six years with Florida Derby winner Take Charge Indy, the Juvenile’s fifth-place finisher. “But this year’s crop is stellar.”
Then there are the horses who emerged too late to make the Breeders’ Cup: Bodemeister, sensational 9½-length winner of the Arkansas Derby and today’s 4-1 morning-line favorite; Gemologist, the 5-for-5 winner of the Wood Memorial who won twice at Churchill last fall; and Santa Anita Derby winner I’ll Have Another.http://www.courier-journal.com/article/2...ext|Sports
Some years the Derby is tough to decipher because the horses are inconsistent and the guessing game includes whether they will bring their top effort or not. The hallmark of much of this field is that even in defeat, they have run exceedingly well.
“Some really good horses are going to get beat a long way,” said trainer Steve Asmussen, who sends out the stretch-running duo of Sunland Derby winner Daddy Nose Best and Arkansas Derby third-place finisher Sabercat. “I’m so curious to see the chart of this race, because there are so many scenarios or possibilities.”
Headed by champion Hansen, an incredible nine horses — including the top five finishers — from the 13 who contested the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall over this same surface return for the 138th Derby. Only 13 of the previous 27 Juvenile winners even made the Derby, with Hansen the first since Street Sense prevailed in 2007.
“Usually people say, ‘Well, this crop might be a little soft,’ ” said trainer Pat Byrne, who hopes jockey Calvin Borel can get his fourth Derby victory in six years with Florida Derby winner Take Charge Indy, the Juvenile’s fifth-place finisher. “But this year’s crop is stellar.”
Then there are the horses who emerged too late to make the Breeders’ Cup: Bodemeister, sensational 9½-length winner of the Arkansas Derby and today’s 4-1 morning-line favorite; Gemologist, the 5-for-5 winner of the Wood Memorial who won twice at Churchill last fall; and Santa Anita Derby winner I’ll Have Another.http://www.courier-journal.com/article/2...ext|Sports
05-05-2012, 12:51 AM
[Image: http://cmsimg.courier-journal.com/apps/p...umper-crop]
Bodemeister is the 4-1 morning-line favorite, but he would be only the second Derby winner who didn’t race at age 2.
Bodemeister is the 4-1 morning-line favorite, but he would be only the second Derby winner who didn’t race at age 2.
05-05-2012, 12:52 AM
Eileen Bauman had wagered $6 on the Kentucky Derby by early Friday afternoon, but her method was admittedly unscientific.
She’d bet $2 to win on Prospective — because she stays with friends in Prospect during her annual Derby trips from her home in Rochester, N.Y. She put another $2 to win on Take Charge Indy — in honor of her family’s late dog, Indy.
And she placed a final $2 in hopes that Daddy Nose Best will win — because her father is ill “and he still says, ‘I know what I’m doing.’ ”
Only one of her choices, Take Charge Indy, was among the favorites for today’s Kentucky Derby as wagering closed at Churchill Downs on Friday night. At 8-1, Florida Derby winner Take Charge Indy was the co-second choice after starting the day at 15-1.
Union Rags, the second-place finisher in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill, was the 5-1 first choice. Even though Union Rags finished third in the Florida Derby in his last start, the colt was among a short list of horses Paula Krull of Prospect was thinking about betting.
“He ran a good race,” Krull said.
The 4-1 morning line Derby favorite and Arkansas Derby champ, Bodemeister, was at 8-1 along with Take Charge Indy and Wood Memorial winner Gemologist.
Dullahan, the Blue Grass Stakes victor, and 2011 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Hansen were at 9-1.
Tom Davey of Keeseville, N.Y., bet $50 to win on Dullahan, in the Derby future wagering, which would allow him a better payoff because the colt’s odds were higher during those pools from earlier in the year.http://www.courier-journal.com/interacti...each-horse
She’d bet $2 to win on Prospective — because she stays with friends in Prospect during her annual Derby trips from her home in Rochester, N.Y. She put another $2 to win on Take Charge Indy — in honor of her family’s late dog, Indy.
And she placed a final $2 in hopes that Daddy Nose Best will win — because her father is ill “and he still says, ‘I know what I’m doing.’ ”
Only one of her choices, Take Charge Indy, was among the favorites for today’s Kentucky Derby as wagering closed at Churchill Downs on Friday night. At 8-1, Florida Derby winner Take Charge Indy was the co-second choice after starting the day at 15-1.
Union Rags, the second-place finisher in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill, was the 5-1 first choice. Even though Union Rags finished third in the Florida Derby in his last start, the colt was among a short list of horses Paula Krull of Prospect was thinking about betting.
“He ran a good race,” Krull said.
The 4-1 morning line Derby favorite and Arkansas Derby champ, Bodemeister, was at 8-1 along with Take Charge Indy and Wood Memorial winner Gemologist.
Dullahan, the Blue Grass Stakes victor, and 2011 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Hansen were at 9-1.
Tom Davey of Keeseville, N.Y., bet $50 to win on Dullahan, in the Derby future wagering, which would allow him a better payoff because the colt’s odds were higher during those pools from earlier in the year.http://www.courier-journal.com/interacti...each-horse
05-05-2012, 12:54 AM
Hansen
Why he can win: He already beat most of his Derby competition in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, run at the same track. He doesn’t need to have the lead, as the Gotham showed, and he came home in excellent time in the Blue Grass after setting a fast early pace. Street Sense — the last 2-year-old champion even to make the Derby, in 2007 — broke the so-called Juvenile Jinx by becoming the first to pull off the Juvenile-Derby parlay.
Why he can’t: There’s too much speed for anyone up close early to win. Possibly the racing gods are University of Louisville fans who didn’t appreciate owner Dr. Kendall H
Why he can win: He already beat most of his Derby competition in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, run at the same track. He doesn’t need to have the lead, as the Gotham showed, and he came home in excellent time in the Blue Grass after setting a fast early pace. Street Sense — the last 2-year-old champion even to make the Derby, in 2007 — broke the so-called Juvenile Jinx by becoming the first to pull off the Juvenile-Derby parlay.
Why he can’t: There’s too much speed for anyone up close early to win. Possibly the racing gods are University of Louisville fans who didn’t appreciate owner Dr. Kendall H
05-05-2012, 12:54 AM
Daddy Long Legs
Why he can win: Though he has raced mainly on turf, he is bred for dirt. He won the 13/16-mile UAE Derby in his first start at 3, so an extra sixteenth-mile shouldn’t be an issue.
Why he can’t: The one time he ran on dirt, he was 12th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He beat up on grass horses in the UAE Derby. Since 1937, no horse has won the Derby off only one start at 3
[Image: http://cmsimg.courier-journal.com/apps/p...all-horses]
Why he can win: Though he has raced mainly on turf, he is bred for dirt. He won the 13/16-mile UAE Derby in his first start at 3, so an extra sixteenth-mile shouldn’t be an issue.
Why he can’t: The one time he ran on dirt, he was 12th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He beat up on grass horses in the UAE Derby. Since 1937, no horse has won the Derby off only one start at 3
[Image: http://cmsimg.courier-journal.com/apps/p...all-horses]
05-05-2012, 12:55 AM
Union Rags
Why he can win: He had legitimate excuses in his two close defeats. His workout Saturday (five furlongs in 594/5 seconds) was just the sort of impressive move that signals a Derby winner (see Barbaro in 2006 and Animal Kingdom last year). Breeder Phyllis Wyeth sold the colt for $145,000 and bought him back for $390,000 after dreaming that she was supposed to own him.
Why he can’t: He’s just one of those unlucky horses who, even in victory, seems to find himself in trouble —a Derby deal-breaker. In both defeats he had a chance to run down the leader and didn’t. His pedigree might be just shy of 1¼ miles.
Why he can win: He had legitimate excuses in his two close defeats. His workout Saturday (five furlongs in 594/5 seconds) was just the sort of impressive move that signals a Derby winner (see Barbaro in 2006 and Animal Kingdom last year). Breeder Phyllis Wyeth sold the colt for $145,000 and bought him back for $390,000 after dreaming that she was supposed to own him.
Why he can’t: He’s just one of those unlucky horses who, even in victory, seems to find himself in trouble —a Derby deal-breaker. In both defeats he had a chance to run down the leader and didn’t. His pedigree might be just shy of 1¼ miles.
05-05-2012, 12:55 AM
Dullahan
Why he can win: No horse finished faster than he did in winning the Blue Grass. He had excuses when fourth in the Breeders’ Cup, and racing on dirt will not be an issue. His dam already has produced a Derby winner in 50-1 Mine That Bird.
Why he can’t: He finished like a grass horse in the Blue Grass on Polytrack because, in the end, that’s what he is: better on turf or poly. No mare ever has produced two Derby winners. Since 1955, only two Derby winners needed more than four starts to win a race. Dullahan took five (of course, that came in a Grade I race).
Why he can win: No horse finished faster than he did in winning the Blue Grass. He had excuses when fourth in the Breeders’ Cup, and racing on dirt will not be an issue. His dam already has produced a Derby winner in 50-1 Mine That Bird.
Why he can’t: He finished like a grass horse in the Blue Grass on Polytrack because, in the end, that’s what he is: better on turf or poly. No mare ever has produced two Derby winners. Since 1955, only two Derby winners needed more than four starts to win a race. Dullahan took five (of course, that came in a Grade I race).
05-05-2012, 12:56 AM
Creative Cause
Why he can win: He’s bred for distance racing and is admirably consistent, with none of his defeats by more than a length. His form is the prototype of what produced Derby winners for decades.
Why he can’t: The blinkers came off for the Santa Anita Derby (a nose defeat), and since the Daily Racing Form began noting blinkers in its past performances in 1987, no Derby winner had blinkers either added or taken off for its last prep.
Why he can win: He’s bred for distance racing and is admirably consistent, with none of his defeats by more than a length. His form is the prototype of what produced Derby winners for decades.
Why he can’t: The blinkers came off for the Santa Anita Derby (a nose defeat), and since the Daily Racing Form began noting blinkers in its past performances in 1987, no Derby winner had blinkers either added or taken off for its last prep.
05-05-2012, 08:00 AM
Gemologist
Why he can win: Wood Memorial winner is 5 for 5, including two races at Churchill. He has speed but doesn’t need the lead. His speed figures have improved every start.
Why he can’t: Only two horses won the Derby after breaking their maiden at Turfway Park (or predecessor Latonia), the last being Alysheba in 1987.
Why he can win: Wood Memorial winner is 5 for 5, including two races at Churchill. He has speed but doesn’t need the lead. His speed figures have improved every start.
Why he can’t: Only two horses won the Derby after breaking their maiden at Turfway Park (or predecessor Latonia), the last being Alysheba in 1987.
05-05-2012, 08:01 AM
Take Charge Indy
Why he can win: He’s beautifully bred for longer distances, being by A.P. Indy and out of the multiple Grade I winner Take Charge Lady. While he won the Florida Derby on the lead, that was a function of the lack of other speed. Jockey Calvin Borel won three of the l\past five Derbys. He also was inadvertently left out of the “why/whynot” page in Sunday’s paper. The last horse to be left out accidently was Funny Cide, who proved the 2003 winner.
Why he can’t: He had everything his way in winning the Florida Derby, which rarely happens in the Kentucky Derby
Why he can win: He’s beautifully bred for longer distances, being by A.P. Indy and out of the multiple Grade I winner Take Charge Lady. While he won the Florida Derby on the lead, that was a function of the lack of other speed. Jockey Calvin Borel won three of the l\past five Derbys. He also was inadvertently left out of the “why/whynot” page in Sunday’s paper. The last horse to be left out accidently was Funny Cide, who proved the 2003 winner.
Why he can’t: He had everything his way in winning the Florida Derby, which rarely happens in the Kentucky Derby
05-05-2012, 08:01 AM
Bodemeister
Why he can win: The 9½-length Arkansas Derby winner is the fastest horse in the race, the only one with three straight triple-digit Beyer speed figures. He’s by a Belmont winner, so distance shouldn’t be a problem.
Why he can’t: All the other speed will be the problem. Other Derby “rules” have fallen by the wayside, except for the granddaddy of them all: Only Apollo in 1882 won the Derby without racing at 2. He’s this year’s Bellamy Road, the 2005 Derby favorite after earning a huge speed figure in taking the Wood Memorial by 17½ lengths. Like Bellamy Road, Bodemeister is a classic “bounce” case.
Why he can win: The 9½-length Arkansas Derby winner is the fastest horse in the race, the only one with three straight triple-digit Beyer speed figures. He’s by a Belmont winner, so distance shouldn’t be a problem.
Why he can’t: All the other speed will be the problem. Other Derby “rules” have fallen by the wayside, except for the granddaddy of them all: Only Apollo in 1882 won the Derby without racing at 2. He’s this year’s Bellamy Road, the 2005 Derby favorite after earning a huge speed figure in taking the Wood Memorial by 17½ lengths. Like Bellamy Road, Bodemeister is a classic “bounce” case.
05-05-2012, 08:01 AM
I'll Have Another
Why he can win: He beat highly regarded Creative Cause to win the Santa Anita Derby and might be even better with more pace up front. He’s fresh, underrated and bred for the distance. He’s probably been getting pep talks from his famous racehorse-turned-pony, $5.6 million earner Lava Man.
Why he can’t: Might have the wrong coach in his corner — Lava Man never had any success outside of California.
Why he can win: He beat highly regarded Creative Cause to win the Santa Anita Derby and might be even better with more pace up front. He’s fresh, underrated and bred for the distance. He’s probably been getting pep talks from his famous racehorse-turned-pony, $5.6 million earner Lava Man.
Why he can’t: Might have the wrong coach in his corner — Lava Man never had any success outside of California.
05-05-2012, 08:02 AM
Daddy Nose Best
Why he can win: He’s really a dirt horse, even though he raced mainly on grass in order to get longer races. He’s coming off a career-best effort in the Sunland Derby, the only horse to have won two nine-furlong races. All the speed works in his favor.
Why he can’t: Other horses are faster. In this day and age, no Derby winner races eight times at 2.
Why he can win: He’s really a dirt horse, even though he raced mainly on grass in order to get longer races. He’s coming off a career-best effort in the Sunland Derby, the only horse to have won two nine-furlong races. All the speed works in his favor.
Why he can’t: Other horses are faster. In this day and age, no Derby winner races eight times at 2.
05-05-2012, 08:02 AM
Liaison
Why he can win: Victory Gallop, his broodmare sire, owes trainer Bob Baffert after ruining Real Quiet’s Triple Crown bid by a nose in the Belmont in 1998. He’s a Grade I winner and one of last year’s top 2-year-olds.
Why he can’t: He’s shown nothing in his last two races, finishing a bad sixth in the Santa Anita Derby. The last Derby winner who was worse than fourth in its previous start was Iron Liege in 1957. He’s either better on synthetics or he’s better against lesser company.
Why he can win: Victory Gallop, his broodmare sire, owes trainer Bob Baffert after ruining Real Quiet’s Triple Crown bid by a nose in the Belmont in 1998. He’s a Grade I winner and one of last year’s top 2-year-olds.
Why he can’t: He’s shown nothing in his last two races, finishing a bad sixth in the Santa Anita Derby. The last Derby winner who was worse than fourth in its previous start was Iron Liege in 1957. He’s either better on synthetics or he’s better against lesser company.
05-05-2012, 08:02 AM
Alpha
Why he can win: If you like Gemologist, you’ve got to like Alpha, who was a fast-flying second in the Wood. He’s absolutely bred for the distance. Most important, Godolphin is trying to win this Derby going the conventional route, not from Dubai.
Why he can’t: Only one horse (Smarty Jones 2004) has won the Derby after racing over Aqueduct’s inner track. He’s had gate issues, which is bad thing in the Derby. The last time he was at Churchill Downs before a big crowd, he was fractious at the gate and wound up 11th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
Why he can win: If you like Gemologist, you’ve got to like Alpha, who was a fast-flying second in the Wood. He’s absolutely bred for the distance. Most important, Godolphin is trying to win this Derby going the conventional route, not from Dubai.
Why he can’t: Only one horse (Smarty Jones 2004) has won the Derby after racing over Aqueduct’s inner track. He’s had gate issues, which is bad thing in the Derby. The last time he was at Churchill Downs before a big crowd, he was fractious at the gate and wound up 11th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
05-05-2012, 08:02 AM
Prospective
Why he can win: He’s been training at Churchill since mid-March and looks the part. Distance will not be a problem with his pedigree, and he’ll be flying at the end.
Why he can’t: He was a dull sixth in the Blue Grass, and the last horse to win the Derby after being worse than fourth in its last prep was Iron Liege in 1957.
Why he can win: He’s been training at Churchill since mid-March and looks the part. Distance will not be a problem with his pedigree, and he’ll be flying at the end.
Why he can’t: He was a dull sixth in the Blue Grass, and the last horse to win the Derby after being worse than fourth in its last prep was Iron Liege in 1957.
05-05-2012, 08:03 AM
Trinniberg
Why he can win: Everyone else will assume he’s going to stop, and the classy sprinter could go wire to wire. The last time a horse was hauled in a trailer this far (from Miami), Mine That Bird arrived from New Mexico to win at 50-1 in 2009.
Why he can’t: I can’t believe any horse has won the Derby without racing farther than seven-eighths of a mile beforehand. There’s too much other classy speed for him to get an easy lead
Why he can win: Everyone else will assume he’s going to stop, and the classy sprinter could go wire to wire. The last time a horse was hauled in a trailer this far (from Miami), Mine That Bird arrived from New Mexico to win at 50-1 in 2009.
Why he can’t: I can’t believe any horse has won the Derby without racing farther than seven-eighths of a mile beforehand. There’s too much other classy speed for him to get an easy lead
05-05-2012, 08:03 AM
Done Talking
Why he can win: He’s bred for the distance, and all that speed will set up his strong closing kick. The racing gods want to reward longtime Maryland horseman Hamilton Smith, who’s never had a Triple Crown starter.
Why he can’t: He’s not fast enough, with his top Beyer the lowest in the field.
Why he can win: He’s bred for the distance, and all that speed will set up his strong closing kick. The racing gods want to reward longtime Maryland horseman Hamilton Smith, who’s never had a Triple Crown starter.
Why he can’t: He’s not fast enough, with his top Beyer the lowest in the field.
05-05-2012, 08:03 AM
Went the Day Well
Why he can win: He’s by a Derby runner-up (Proud Citizen) out of a mare by Tiznow, who won the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Churchill as a 3-year-old. His connections know how to win the Derby, doing so last year with Animal Kingdom.
Why he can’t: No Derby winner since at least 1929 broke his maiden in March (either at 2 or 3). His first victory was March 3, 2012. The only time an owner, trainer and jockey teamed for back-to-back Derby wins was 1972-73 with Riva Ridge and Secretariat. He’s not Secretariat.
Why he can win: He’s by a Derby runner-up (Proud Citizen) out of a mare by Tiznow, who won the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Churchill as a 3-year-old. His connections know how to win the Derby, doing so last year with Animal Kingdom.
Why he can’t: No Derby winner since at least 1929 broke his maiden in March (either at 2 or 3). His first victory was March 3, 2012. The only time an owner, trainer and jockey teamed for back-to-back Derby wins was 1972-73 with Riva Ridge and Secretariat. He’s not Secretariat.
05-05-2012, 08:03 AM
Rousing Sermon
Why he can win: He was a fast-closing third in the oddly run Louisiana Derby, fighting a slow pace and speed-favoring track. He’s the kind of horse who improves at a huge price when he gets to Churchill.
Why he can’t: He twice was beaten in stakes last fall by Liaison — which looked good at the time but not now. He has not been impressive at all this year and appears a cut below. The last California-bred to win was Decidedly in 1962.
Why he can win: He was a fast-closing third in the oddly run Louisiana Derby, fighting a slow pace and speed-favoring track. He’s the kind of horse who improves at a huge price when he gets to Churchill.
Why he can’t: He twice was beaten in stakes last fall by Liaison — which looked good at the time but not now. He has not been impressive at all this year and appears a cut below. The last California-bred to win was Decidedly in 1962.
05-05-2012, 08:03 AM
Mark Valeski
Why he can win: He ran the entire Louisiana Derby without a front shoe and lost by only a half-length. He lost the Risen Star by a nose to El Padrino, who is a legit contender.
Why he can’t: Since 1971 only 50-1 Giacomo in 2005 earned his first stakes victory in the Derby (we’re giving Alysheba credit for finishing first in the ’87 Blue Grass, though disqualified).
Why he can win: He ran the entire Louisiana Derby without a front shoe and lost by only a half-length. He lost the Risen Star by a nose to El Padrino, who is a legit contender.
Why he can’t: Since 1971 only 50-1 Giacomo in 2005 earned his first stakes victory in the Derby (we’re giving Alysheba credit for finishing first in the ’87 Blue Grass, though disqualified).
05-05-2012, 08:03 AM
El Padrino
Why he can win: In winning his first two races this year, he looked as good as any 3-year-old out there. He certainly has bloodlines for distance and is among many the likely speed duel will help. He’s got seniority as the oldest horse in the field, with a Jan. 22 birthday.
Why he can’t: Todd Pletcher wins the Derby when he has a horse training at Churchill three weeks beforehand (see Super Saver in 2010), not when he brings them up from Florida late.
Why he can win: In winning his first two races this year, he looked as good as any 3-year-old out there. He certainly has bloodlines for distance and is among many the likely speed duel will help. He’s got seniority as the oldest horse in the field, with a Jan. 22 birthday.
Why he can’t: Todd Pletcher wins the Derby when he has a horse training at Churchill three weeks beforehand (see Super Saver in 2010), not when he brings them up from Florida late.
05-05-2012, 08:04 AM
Optimizer
Why he can win: No owner or breeder has won more Derbys than Calumet Farm, and Optimizer’s owner-breeder Brad Kelley is widely expected to become the fabled Lexington farm’s new owner any day now. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas knows how to win this thing, with four. Optimizer is bred for the Derby distance — or really the Belmont.
Why he can’t: He might not get in. He’s bred to run 1½ miles — on grass. Horses don’t win the Derby after finishing ninth in their last prep.
Why he can win: No owner or breeder has won more Derbys than Calumet Farm, and Optimizer’s owner-breeder Brad Kelley is widely expected to become the fabled Lexington farm’s new owner any day now. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas knows how to win this thing, with four. Optimizer is bred for the Derby distance — or really the Belmont.
Why he can’t: He might not get in. He’s bred to run 1½ miles — on grass. Horses don’t win the Derby after finishing ninth in their last prep.
05-05-2012, 08:04 AM
My Adonis
Why he can win: If the track is sloppy, watch out. His Gotham second was an excellent performance.
Why he can’t: He might not get in, and if he does, he’ll probably have to start from post 20. The last horse to win after finishing worse than fourth in its last prep was Iron Liege, who was fifth before taking the 1957 Derby.
Why he can win: If the track is sloppy, watch out. His Gotham second was an excellent performance.
Why he can’t: He might not get in, and if he does, he’ll probably have to start from post 20. The last horse to win after finishing worse than fourth in its last prep was Iron Liege, who was fifth before taking the 1957 Derby.
05-05-2012, 08:05 AM
LOUISVILLE — Other than the 20 3-year-olds slated to jaunt down the Churchill Downs track Saturday in the 138th running of the Kentucky Derby, one horse who has been in the forefront of many minds this week has been the 13th-place finisher in the 2001 edition of the race.
Eleven years ago, the blazingly quick Songandaprayer set the stage for the second-fastest running of the Derby in history, zipping through fractions of :22.25, :44.86 and 1:09.25 before the reality of his distance limitations hit him like a brick wall.
Given the amount of front-runners present in this year's bunch of contenders, Songandaprayer could have some company this weekend in the category of most game-changing speedsters in Derby history.
The only topic more hotly debated than who might win this year's Kentucky Derby is whether the pace of the 11/4-mile classic will be as suicidal as some predict.
When 2-year-old champion Hansen won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs in gate-to-wire fashion last November, the discussion immediately turned to whether the son of Tapit could pull off a duplicate feat going 10 furlongs on May 5.
In recent weeks, however, any notion that Hansen would be the lone wolf up front has all but gone by the wayside thanks to the additions of brilliant Arkansas Derby winner Bodemeister and top sprinter Trinniberg.
Like Hansen, both Bodemeister and, in particular, Trinniberg count the front end as their bread and butter. Bodemeister has never been worse than third at any point of call in his four-race career and has earned each of his two career wins, including his 91/2-length Arkansas Derby triumph, by heading every point of call.
That Trinniberg was entered in the Derby was a shock to some considering the front-running winner of the Grade III Swale and Bay Shore Stakes has never been beyond 7 furlongs.
The son of Teuflesberg is expected to gun it out of post nine under jockey Willie Martinez and go as far as he can for as long as his speed holds up. The $64,000 question is, will Hansen and Bodemeister relax enough to let Trinniberg fly solo or will the adrenaline conspire to make for break-neck speeds.
"No one wants to go too fast like the year of Songandaprayer," said Bob Baffert, who will saddle both Bodemeister and Liaison in his quest for a fourth Derby win. "But you just don't know. If they break and they're on the engine 3-4 abreast, they might just kick on, and once they get running you can't really slow them down.
"Trinniberg is very fast and Hansen, those are one-dimensional type horses. You never know what they're going to do but nobody wants to go out there blazing if they want to win going 11/4 miles so we're all in the same boat."
One of the many variables adding to the intrigue of the potential pace scenario is that both the horses expected to be up front and the ones who figure to sit back might be some of the best-quality babies of recent seasons.
It has been well documented that nine of the horses who ran in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile have already come back to win graded stakes this year. Despite being the undefeated winner of the Grade I Wood Memorial, WinStar Farm's Gemologist was only the third choice on the morning line at 6-1 while fellow Grade I winner Liaison was one of five horses deemed a 50-1 long shot.
"The Derby usually seems to have an unrealistic fast pace and there are fast horses in this race. The problem is they're quality so they could keep right on going," said trainer Dale Romans, who will send out multiple Grade I winner Dullahan in the Derby. "It's going to be interesting to see how it unfolds. I think this is a deep field of quality horses. I think this is a good crop."
Count Romans among those who would love to see neck-snapping fractions put up as Dullahan is among the stone-cold closers who will benefit should the front-runners start slowing down.
If the pace proves too unreasonable, even those sitting off that first tier could be in jeopardy. When Songandaprayer went winging away in 2001, he ended up cooking every horse within a handful of lengths of him — save for Congaree who hung on for third — including heavily favored Point Given. That cleared the way for Monarchos to charge to victory.
"I think from a pace scenario you want things to work out to your advantage but just like last year, what you're hoping for and what you get on race day are not always the same thing," said trainer Steve Asmussen, who will send out both Daddy Nose Best and Sabercat. "There are going to be some very good horses get beat a long ways."
Read more here: http://www.kentucky.com/2012/05/04/21757...rylink=cpy
Eleven years ago, the blazingly quick Songandaprayer set the stage for the second-fastest running of the Derby in history, zipping through fractions of :22.25, :44.86 and 1:09.25 before the reality of his distance limitations hit him like a brick wall.
Given the amount of front-runners present in this year's bunch of contenders, Songandaprayer could have some company this weekend in the category of most game-changing speedsters in Derby history.
The only topic more hotly debated than who might win this year's Kentucky Derby is whether the pace of the 11/4-mile classic will be as suicidal as some predict.
When 2-year-old champion Hansen won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs in gate-to-wire fashion last November, the discussion immediately turned to whether the son of Tapit could pull off a duplicate feat going 10 furlongs on May 5.
In recent weeks, however, any notion that Hansen would be the lone wolf up front has all but gone by the wayside thanks to the additions of brilliant Arkansas Derby winner Bodemeister and top sprinter Trinniberg.
Like Hansen, both Bodemeister and, in particular, Trinniberg count the front end as their bread and butter. Bodemeister has never been worse than third at any point of call in his four-race career and has earned each of his two career wins, including his 91/2-length Arkansas Derby triumph, by heading every point of call.
That Trinniberg was entered in the Derby was a shock to some considering the front-running winner of the Grade III Swale and Bay Shore Stakes has never been beyond 7 furlongs.
The son of Teuflesberg is expected to gun it out of post nine under jockey Willie Martinez and go as far as he can for as long as his speed holds up. The $64,000 question is, will Hansen and Bodemeister relax enough to let Trinniberg fly solo or will the adrenaline conspire to make for break-neck speeds.
"No one wants to go too fast like the year of Songandaprayer," said Bob Baffert, who will saddle both Bodemeister and Liaison in his quest for a fourth Derby win. "But you just don't know. If they break and they're on the engine 3-4 abreast, they might just kick on, and once they get running you can't really slow them down.
"Trinniberg is very fast and Hansen, those are one-dimensional type horses. You never know what they're going to do but nobody wants to go out there blazing if they want to win going 11/4 miles so we're all in the same boat."
One of the many variables adding to the intrigue of the potential pace scenario is that both the horses expected to be up front and the ones who figure to sit back might be some of the best-quality babies of recent seasons.
It has been well documented that nine of the horses who ran in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile have already come back to win graded stakes this year. Despite being the undefeated winner of the Grade I Wood Memorial, WinStar Farm's Gemologist was only the third choice on the morning line at 6-1 while fellow Grade I winner Liaison was one of five horses deemed a 50-1 long shot.
"The Derby usually seems to have an unrealistic fast pace and there are fast horses in this race. The problem is they're quality so they could keep right on going," said trainer Dale Romans, who will send out multiple Grade I winner Dullahan in the Derby. "It's going to be interesting to see how it unfolds. I think this is a deep field of quality horses. I think this is a good crop."
Count Romans among those who would love to see neck-snapping fractions put up as Dullahan is among the stone-cold closers who will benefit should the front-runners start slowing down.
If the pace proves too unreasonable, even those sitting off that first tier could be in jeopardy. When Songandaprayer went winging away in 2001, he ended up cooking every horse within a handful of lengths of him — save for Congaree who hung on for third — including heavily favored Point Given. That cleared the way for Monarchos to charge to victory.
"I think from a pace scenario you want things to work out to your advantage but just like last year, what you're hoping for and what you get on race day are not always the same thing," said trainer Steve Asmussen, who will send out both Daddy Nose Best and Sabercat. "There are going to be some very good horses get beat a long ways."
Read more here: http://www.kentucky.com/2012/05/04/21757...rylink=cpy
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