[Hoot Gibson]

New presidential swing state poll has Harris up by 8% in Michigan( +3% in Wisconsin, tied in PA). It's gonna be close, folks.

https://www.masslive.com/politics/2024/1...-up-8.html

Bullfinch Group? That one must have been hard to find. Atlas Intel's 10/12 through 10/17 poll has Harris up +1 in Wisconsin, Trump +3 in Pennsylvania, and Trump +3 in Michigan, all with sample sizes of at least 932 likely voters and MOEs of +/-3 points or better for all three states.

The Bullfinch Group poll has a MOE of +/-4.0 for each of the states polled. Those results are much different than most of the recent polls listed on Real Clear Politics.

The Average RCP Betting Odds favor Trump by a 57.8 to 40.9 margin, with Harris no closer than 14 points in any of the betting sites.

Yeah, I was taken aback by the Bullfinch Group(a Are we sure that's not Old School's personal polling group...lol) poll.  8% seems kinda like an outlier, doesn't it?    Still say the winner of PA will be the president.

I agree but I am beginning to think that this is not going to be a close election. Trump seems to be gaining a momentum and I recall several tight campaigns where one candidate pulled away in the last few weeks to win by a wide margin. The best example may have been the 1980 election, when Reagan emerged from a tight campaign with Jimmy Carter late and won the election by a landslide. I don't expect anything like Reagan's margin, but I don't see Harris doing much to help herself at this point. Bob Casey distancing himself from her in Pennsylvania can't be a good sign.