[Big Daddy Bull]

When the latest RPI results were announced, I was struck by just how close the three top teams in 4A were, particularly Corbin and Lexington Catholic.  Corbin's current RPI  is  0.77562  ; Lex Cath is 0.77074.   That's a difference of only  0.00488 .   I got to wondering, with such a small difference, if all three teams won out(as I expect will happen),  will Corbin remain in the top spot, with the Knights and Rebs following in spots two and three?  My intuition said "probably so."  I knew all three RPI's would drop over the next three weeks due to each team playing a couple of pretty week opponents.  Would each drop about the same, leaving the result about as it is now?  Or would Lex Cath and Boyle gain on the Hounds?   Catholic plays @ Scott County on the last week of the regular season while Boyle gets Fred Douglass @ home.  Corbin has no opponent  left to play that compares with Scott County or FD. Wayne and Campbell County are mediocre, at best,  and Lincoln is poor.  No doubt, both Lex Cath and Boyle will gain on Corbin as a result of the "OPPONENTS WP " element of the RPI .  Will it be enough to overtake the Hounds?  I thought I would put my degree to use and see what the RPI's would look like if game outcomes went as I expect them to go.

My thoughts were that Boyle was probably not close enough to overtake the other two if each team won out. Corbin and Lex Cath felt like it could be really close. BOY, WAS I RIGHT!!! 

Assuming that all three win out, as I expect will happen, I calculated what the WP would be for all three teams. Note: WP , as defined in the RPI formula is not just #of wins/ # of games played but figure in a value based on what class each opponent is in. For example, a Corbin win over 4A Wayne County has a value = 1.00000 but a win over 6A Campbell County has a value = 1.32273.  Corbin's win over 1A Pikeville was only valued at   0.65788 .  However, Corbin benefits from having Pikeville as an opponent because it helps their OWP(opponents winning percentage) score.   Pikeville both giveth and taketh away , one might say. lol

Now, let's get to what you are all here for --- Playoff RPI's .   These calculations  took a very long time. Painstakingly long, I might add.  In projecting winners and losers over the next three weeks, I didn't pick any  crazy upsets . I went with the team that would generally be considered the favorite in most cases. Obviously, there are some games that could go either way. The vast majority I think  most of us would agree on; a handful of others would be up for debate.  

Here is what my calculations revealed  the first time I went through it.  I say first time because I started having second thoughts about a couple of games after my initial projected were made and calculated into the RPI algorithm.

Note: For the OOWP(Opponents Opponents Winning Percentage), I just used the same value that each team presently has. The reason- OOWP is not likely to change very much seven games into the season since there are so many opponents' opponents that would be averaged in to get the final value. Plus, it would take a very, very long time to do those calculations manually. Any resulting changes in each team's OOWP is not likely to move the needle in any statistically significant fashion, this deep into the season. So, we'll go with the current value of OOWP for each team.

Here's what I got:

CORBIN: 

Current :  WP = 1.00533  ;    OPW = 0.64971   ;    OOWP = 0.65453   ;       RPI  =   0.77562

Projected:  WP = 1.03600  ;   OWP = 0.56152 ;     OOWP  = 0.65453   ;      RPI   =   0.75548  


Boyle:

Current :    WP =  0.98210  ;   OPW = 0.72855  ;   OOWP   =  0.53325   ;      RPI   =   0.75870

Projected:   WP =  1.00249  ;   OPW =  0.68746  ;   OOWP  =  0.53325  ;       RPI =    0.75146


Lex Cath :

Current  :    WP  =  1.00675   ;   OPW  = 0.62202   ;   OOWP  =  0.66889  ;    RPI   =   0.77074

Projected:    WP  =  1.01974   ;   OPW  = 0.57239  ;    OOWP  =  0,66889  ;    RPI  =    0.75791


Under this projection scenario, the final rankings would be 1. L.C  2. Corbin  3. Boyle  .

However,  there are a couple of scenarios that could be good news for Redhound fans.   Let's look at a couple of caveats that might turn things in the Redhounds' favor.  

Caveat #1 :   Pulaski County @  Southwestern .   My calculations above factor in a Southwestern win over Pulaski. ( My first inclination was to go with the Warriors but , the more I think about it , I really like the Maroons. They may very well win that intra-county rivalry game. If so, here's what would happen to the RPI, with everything else staying the same :   Corbin =  0.75938   ;    Lex Cath =  0.75791


Caveat #2 :    Woodford County @ Simon Kenton .   My calculations above also had  Woodford beating Simon Kenton.   Kenton , however, has a terrific offense and they may very well win that game at home. If Pulaski falls to Southwestern, the Redhounds still move ahead of Lex Cath with a Simon Kenton win over Woodford.     Corbin =  0.75887   ;   Lex Cath  =   0.75791


Those are two big games to watch for playoff positioning.  Redhound fans, say a cheer for the Maroons and the Pioneers!!!

Also,   couple of other games to watch :     Simon Kenton @ Ryle   . A win for SK in that one deals a double whammy to Lex Cath. It would help Corbin's OWP and, at the same time, hurt Lex Cath's OPW(since Ryle was an opponent of Lex Cath).

In addition,  LCA @ Somerset . If the Briar Jumpers could somehow beat LCA , it would be another double whammy to Lex Cath --- a boost to Corbin's OWP and a blow to Lex Cath's .    Go Pioneers(again !)  and Go Jumpers  !!!

As you can see, the RPI battle between these three teams is going right to the end.  Think about this , if Pulaski lost to Southwestern and Simon Kenton lost to Woodford and everything else  remained the same as in the initial projection EXCEPT FOR...   Dougie's Whitley County Colonels knocking off Danville in Williamburg (it very well could happen),  then in that scenario the final RPI's would be
Corbin =  .75805   ;   Lex Cath =   .75791  .   That's a difference of just  0.00014 .    that's   14/100,000 . Incredibly close!!!! WOW!!!

Obviously, with numbers this close, OPW is going to dictate which team comes out on top.  So, root for your team to win out  and root for your team's opponents to win as well.

It's gonna be a wild ride to the end .    Hope you enjoyed the numbers...

Does anyone know how serious the injury is to the Lex Cath RB? Heard he went out Friday with a knee injury. If he is out for an extended period of time, that would change some things I would think.