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03-18-2015, 04:49 AM
The official Maher Rankings bracket for the Sweet 16:
http://www.maherrankings.com/maher-ranki...6-bracket/
http://www.maherrankings.com/maher-ranki...6-bracket/
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03-18-2015, 01:16 PM
Me, too!!
03-18-2015, 10:09 PM
It's only missed 1st 2 games by 31 points. 1-1
03-19-2015, 06:19 PM
Finished Wednesday with 3 out of 4 correct. Based on the Region Tourney prediction rate of about 77%, I would expect to continue right around this clip.
One caveat there: that is with an allowance to recalculate after each round. For example now that Taylor County is out, my original bracket is guaranteed to have another wrong in the Elite 8 round.
In other words, 77% is an individual game prediction rate, not a bracket level prediction rate. Bracket level will be worse.
Predicting scores is much harder - too much variability - I have an upgrade coming soon (perhaps in time for Baseball season) that should help, but as it stands, I don't get too hung up on missing some of those.
One caveat there: that is with an allowance to recalculate after each round. For example now that Taylor County is out, my original bracket is guaranteed to have another wrong in the Elite 8 round.
In other words, 77% is an individual game prediction rate, not a bracket level prediction rate. Bracket level will be worse.
Predicting scores is much harder - too much variability - I have an upgrade coming soon (perhaps in time for Baseball season) that should help, but as it stands, I don't get too hung up on missing some of those.
03-22-2015, 07:04 PM
SoccerMath Wrote:The official Maher Rankings bracket for the Sweet 16:
http://www.maherrankings.com/maher-ranki...6-bracket/
Looks like my NCAA bracket. Now if I can only get northern Iowa to beat Louisville and Michigan State beat Virgina. :truestory: I will be in the driver seat. Plus Kentucky must win it all. :Cheerlead
03-23-2015, 06:40 PM
Yes, that was a brutal, bracket busting tourney. Nothing to do but take your lumps on it. From what I gather, most others suffered the same fate, unless you are from the Owensboro or Bowling Green areas!
The pre-tournament bracket finished 6-9 :HitWall:
Even with re-calculating after each round, it won't be much better. Haven't run those #'s yet, and several games are too close to eyeball. Boyle was #21 entering the tourney, and Bowling Green was #22, there is a chance they could have flip-flopped before their matchup. The same is true for #18 Owensboro, and Bowling Green. Might at least get over 50%!
Brings up an interesting point though. I have never done this poorly in the state soccer tournament. Is basketball harder to predict? I don't think so, the full season prediction accuracies are very similar. Is the state tournament in basketball more unpredictable than the soccer state tournament? Maybe, I'd like to go back through past basketball state tournaments to explore that one. I could see that being the case, since they play at Rupp with attendances in the five figures, it is a very different environment than the regular season. This is not really the case for soccer.
Or, maybe this years tourney was just a crazy one!
The pre-tournament bracket finished 6-9 :HitWall:
Even with re-calculating after each round, it won't be much better. Haven't run those #'s yet, and several games are too close to eyeball. Boyle was #21 entering the tourney, and Bowling Green was #22, there is a chance they could have flip-flopped before their matchup. The same is true for #18 Owensboro, and Bowling Green. Might at least get over 50%!
Brings up an interesting point though. I have never done this poorly in the state soccer tournament. Is basketball harder to predict? I don't think so, the full season prediction accuracies are very similar. Is the state tournament in basketball more unpredictable than the soccer state tournament? Maybe, I'd like to go back through past basketball state tournaments to explore that one. I could see that being the case, since they play at Rupp with attendances in the five figures, it is a very different environment than the regular season. This is not really the case for soccer.
Or, maybe this years tourney was just a crazy one!
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