03-26-2010, 03:09 PM
First and foremost I expect UK to struggle shooting the ball from outside for a second straight game. It seems like this team really struggles with gym's with either high ceilings or unusual seating arrangements behind the backboards.
West Virginia is very deserving of where they are. They are an ELITE defensive team, they play excellent team ball, they have one of the country's most underrated players in Butler, and they dominate the glass. I enjoy watching WVU play as you never will get anything flashy, you just get a tough, gritty performance..and if it is a close game Butler is one of te most clutch players in the country. WVU reminds me of a cross between Mississippi State and Vanderbilt, but they are a much better defensive team than either of those. The pace West Virginia plays at favors them in the matchup as they are naturally a very deliberate team. I think on the whole this is the best team UK will have faced, although I think Tennessee is the most dangerous team they have played in terms of a one game setting. I think WVU will be able to limit UK's frontcourt due to their physical style and strong athleticism. WVU will limit UK on the offensive baords, something UK has killed team with.
The difference in this game comes in 3 aspects where UK has a MAJOR advantage.
1. Between Bledsoe and Wall at PG you can basically count 25 points, 10 assists, 8 rebounds, and a few steals. Mazzula is a tough ball player and he is definitely giving all that he can, but Mazzula and whoever WVU uses as a backup will not be able to come close to this production. I see the PG spot alone creating a 12-15 point deficiency off the bat, let alone another 8-10 points from creating baskets with penetration or off turnovers. If truck was playing it would help to alleviate some of this.
Naturally WVU will look to make this difference up from the other 4 positions, but with the exception of Butler I am not sure they will be able to have a + margin at any other position.
Additionally, without Mazulla being a bonafide 3 point option it will allow UK to sag off of him and make rotations to help the post or guard perimeter scorers like Butler more possible.
2. WVU's athletic ability will be able to limit Cousins, but there is no way they will be able to stop him. The ONLY big man in the BEAST who compares offensively to Cousins is Greg Monroe. WVU did a good job on him, but Georgetown didn't have a post player equal to Patterson that they had to worry about. Cousins is bigger, stronger, and more explosive than any WVU player and it will require a double team to keep him in check. WVU's defense moves well, but this need to double out of the zone will open lanes for diagonal cuts by UK's guards.
3. WVU is not a very efficient offensive team. They go through long stretches of struggling to score in the half court, but they are able to subsidize these droughts with their athletic ability and their ability to create transition. UK's elite speed and shot blocking will negate some of these chances, and at the same time make WVU's half court offense work even harder. If UK committed 15 turnovers it would effect them far less than if WVU committed 15 turnovers.
If WVU turns the ball over like last night you can mark my words that no matter how man turnovers UK has they will blow them off the court. I don't expect WVU to do this though, I expect Huggins to slow them down for fear of UK's transitional offense. I see this being a physical struggle and if the officials from last night are any indication they will let the guys play.
All in all I think his is a close game throughout but UK continually hovers around a 4-6 point lead and then take care of business on defense in the clutch.
UK by 5-10 depending on Free Throw shooting.
West Virginia is very deserving of where they are. They are an ELITE defensive team, they play excellent team ball, they have one of the country's most underrated players in Butler, and they dominate the glass. I enjoy watching WVU play as you never will get anything flashy, you just get a tough, gritty performance..and if it is a close game Butler is one of te most clutch players in the country. WVU reminds me of a cross between Mississippi State and Vanderbilt, but they are a much better defensive team than either of those. The pace West Virginia plays at favors them in the matchup as they are naturally a very deliberate team. I think on the whole this is the best team UK will have faced, although I think Tennessee is the most dangerous team they have played in terms of a one game setting. I think WVU will be able to limit UK's frontcourt due to their physical style and strong athleticism. WVU will limit UK on the offensive baords, something UK has killed team with.
The difference in this game comes in 3 aspects where UK has a MAJOR advantage.
1. Between Bledsoe and Wall at PG you can basically count 25 points, 10 assists, 8 rebounds, and a few steals. Mazzula is a tough ball player and he is definitely giving all that he can, but Mazzula and whoever WVU uses as a backup will not be able to come close to this production. I see the PG spot alone creating a 12-15 point deficiency off the bat, let alone another 8-10 points from creating baskets with penetration or off turnovers. If truck was playing it would help to alleviate some of this.
Naturally WVU will look to make this difference up from the other 4 positions, but with the exception of Butler I am not sure they will be able to have a + margin at any other position.
Additionally, without Mazulla being a bonafide 3 point option it will allow UK to sag off of him and make rotations to help the post or guard perimeter scorers like Butler more possible.
2. WVU's athletic ability will be able to limit Cousins, but there is no way they will be able to stop him. The ONLY big man in the BEAST who compares offensively to Cousins is Greg Monroe. WVU did a good job on him, but Georgetown didn't have a post player equal to Patterson that they had to worry about. Cousins is bigger, stronger, and more explosive than any WVU player and it will require a double team to keep him in check. WVU's defense moves well, but this need to double out of the zone will open lanes for diagonal cuts by UK's guards.
3. WVU is not a very efficient offensive team. They go through long stretches of struggling to score in the half court, but they are able to subsidize these droughts with their athletic ability and their ability to create transition. UK's elite speed and shot blocking will negate some of these chances, and at the same time make WVU's half court offense work even harder. If UK committed 15 turnovers it would effect them far less than if WVU committed 15 turnovers.
If WVU turns the ball over like last night you can mark my words that no matter how man turnovers UK has they will blow them off the court. I don't expect WVU to do this though, I expect Huggins to slow them down for fear of UK's transitional offense. I see this being a physical struggle and if the officials from last night are any indication they will let the guys play.
All in all I think his is a close game throughout but UK continually hovers around a 4-6 point lead and then take care of business on defense in the clutch.
UK by 5-10 depending on Free Throw shooting.
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