Bluegrassrivals

If you look at the current RPI standings, you'll see :

1. Corbin 0.73984

2. Boyle 0.72283

3. Lex Cath 0. 71524

But things, well , they may be about to change come next week. Corbin plays a weak Campbell County team at home while Boyle and Catholic play strong teams. Boyle plays host to a very good Fred Douglass team, while Lex Cath goes on the road to Georgetown to play a good Scott County team that is coming off a 9-point win against Ballard. Will Boyle's and Catholic's better opponents in the final week of the regular season be enough to whittle Corbin's slight RPI lead? Well, I've done the math on both the WP and OWP components of the RPI algorithm and the math says.... YES, if Boyle and Catholic both win their games then Corbin's RPI advantage will all but dissolve and then it will be the OOWP component that will decide the final rankings. Of course, if either Boyle or Catholic lose, then they will have no chance to overtake the Redhounds.

Assuming that all three teams win out, here's what the math says about the WP and OWP components of the RPI.

CORBIN:
CURRENT - WP : 1.00414 OWP : 0.59312
PROJECTED - WP : 1.03600 OWP : 0.56152
CHANGE - WP : +0.03186 OWP : - 0.03160
RPI CHANGE - WP : +0.01115 OWP : - 0.01106
_____________________________________________________

TOT. RPI CHANGE : +0.00009

BOYLE CO :

CURRENT - WP: 0.98608 OWP : 0.63779
PROJECTED - WP: 1.00247 OWP : 0.67469
CHANGE - WP : +0.01641 OWP : +0.03690
RPI CHANGE - WP : +0.00574 OWP : +0.01292
______________________________________________________

TOT. RPI CHANGE : +0.01866

LEX CATHOLIC :

CURRENT - WP : 1.00525 OWP : 0.53590
PROJECTED - WP : 1.01974 OWP : 0.58368
CHANGE - WP : +0.01449 OWP : +0.04778
RPI CHANGE - WP : +0.00507 OWP : +0.01672

_________________________________________________________

TOT. RPI CHANGE : +0.02179

So, what does this mean? It means, the Campbell County game will all but dissolve Corbin's RPI lead. Had the game next week been against a beatable team like Highlands or even North Laurel, instead of the Camels , Corbin may have staved off Boyle's advance. This is all assuming , of course, that Boyle and Lex Cath are able to win next week.

Here's what the margins will look like , based on my projections for next week's games. (NOTE: This takes into account ONLY the WP and OWP components of the RPI algorithm. I don't have the two or three days it would take to manually project for the OOWP component). The OOWP is where the final ranking will likely be determined.

TEAM RPI PTS. BEHIND

1. Boyle ______

2. Corbin 0.00156

3. Lex. Cath 0.00446

Note: A Simon Kenton upset of Woodford County would net Corbin an additional 0.00338 points, which would give them a 0.00182 margin over Boyle . If Simon fails to come through for the Hounds, a Wayne County upset of North Laurel would net the Hounds an extra 0.0447 points and give them an advantage of 0.00291.

Here are some relevant games I picked in order to determine the above projections:

In calculating Corbin's OWP , I chose the team in bold . The underlined team was a Corbin opponent:

Danville at Whitley Co
Madison Southern at Franklin Co.
Knox Central at Breathitt Co.
Rockastle County at Lincoln Co.
North Laurel at Wayne County
Woodford Co. at Simon Kenton

In calculating Boyle's OWP , I chose the team in bold . The underlined team was a Boyle opponent:

Bryan Station at Dunbar
Danville at Whitley Co.
Owensboro at Henderson Co.
Lex. Catholic at Scott County
Shelby Co. at Anderson County
Bourbon Co at Letcher County Central

In calculating Lex. Catholic's OWP , I chose the team in bold . The underlined team was a Lex. Catholic opponent :

Cov. Catholic at Ryle
Henry Clay at LCA
Tates Creek at Boone Co.
Frederick Douglass at Boyle Co.
Bourbon County at Letcher County Central
Shelby Co. at Anderson Co.

So, Corbin's game against Campbell County , in large part , turned a 1,701(0.01701) point lead into a 156(0.00156) point deficit. If Boyle and Catholic win next week, it looks like the OOWP of the RPI will determine the final results.

Let the discussion begin !!!!!

Going to be very shocked if Boyle and Lex Cath both win. I think Corbin is good to go OSH.

Where did the season go? Man I wish it would slow down. Not ready for it to be over.

So if Boyle,Cath and Corbin all 3 win Corbin finishes 3rd?

(10-23-2022, 07:01 PM)Sgt Slaughter Wrote: [ -> ]Where did the season go? Man I wish it would slow down. Not ready for it to be over.

Crazy that it’s already week 10. Wow!

(10-23-2022, 07:48 PM)Colonelfan72 Wrote: [ -> ]So if Boyle,Cath and Corbin all 3 win Corbin finishes 3rd?

Not necessarily. It depends on how each teams Opponents' Opponents perform. If I had a couple of days to spare to do the manual calculation of each team's OOWP, I could come pretty close to forecasting what the final tally will look like. All of the above calculations were done with pen and paper and no calculator but I stand by the work to five decimal places. LOL

Someone posted in the other thread about putting the data into a spreadsheet prior to this past week's results and using calpreps to project the last two weeks of games. He said it showed a finish of 1) LC 2) Boyle 3) Corbin. If that poster would put this past week's game results into the spreadsheet and project next week's games and post what it computes for the final RPI of each team, I would appreciate it. I'd like to see how it projects compared to my pen and paper work.

(10-23-2022, 10:00 PM)Old School Hound Wrote: [ -> ]
(10-23-2022, 07:48 PM)Colonelfan72 Wrote: [ -> ]So if Boyle,Cath and Corbin all 3 win Corbin finishes 3rd?

Not necessarily. It depends on how each teams Opponents' Opponents perform. If I had a couple of days to spare to do the manual calculation of each team's OOWP, I could come pretty close to forecasting what the final tally will look like. All of the above calculations were done with pen and paper and no calculator but I stand by the work to five decimal places. LOL

Someone posted in the other thread about putting the data into a spreadsheet prior to this past week's results and using calpreps to project the last two weeks of games. He said it showed a finish of 1) LC 2) Boyle 3) Corbin. If that poster would put this past week's game results into the spreadsheet and project next week's games and post what it computes for the final RPI of each team, I would appreciate it. I'd like to see how it projects compared to my pen and paper work.

I did Corbins WP just now and the projected WP math. See if yours looks the same.

1. Pikeville (2A 1.52/4A 2.011)= .65788
2. Whitley County (5A 2.313/ 4A 2.011) = 1.15017
3. Franklin County ( 4A 2.011/ 4A 2.011) = 1.0000
4. Pulaski County ( 5A 2.313/ 4A 2.011) = 1.15017
5. Somerset ( 2A 1.521/ 4A 2.011) = .75634013
6. Simon Kenton ( 6A 2.660/ 4A 2.011) = 1.32272501
7. Knox Central (4A 2.011/ 4A 2.011) = 1.0000
8. Lincoln County ( 4A 2.011/ 4A 2.011) = 1.0000
9. Wayne County ( 4A 2.011/ 4A 2.011) = 1.0000
add all the 9 games = 9.03728531/9 = current WP of 1.00414

then add the 10th game Campbell County ( 6A 2.660/ 4A 2.011) = 1.32272501
add the 1.32272501 to the 9.03728531 = 10.3600103 and divide by 10 games and you should get 1.03600103 So Corbins WP should grow from 1.00414 to 1.03600103 after the Campbell County game if they win.. is this what you have? Smile

(10-23-2022, 10:33 PM)Bull got out! Wrote: [ -> ]
(10-23-2022, 10:00 PM)Old School Hound Wrote: [ -> ]
(10-23-2022, 07:48 PM)Colonelfan72 Wrote: [ -> ]So if Boyle,Cath and Corbin all 3 win Corbin finishes 3rd?

Not necessarily. It depends on how each teams Opponents' Opponents perform. If I had a couple of days to spare to do the manual calculation of each team's OOWP, I could come pretty close to forecasting what the final tally will look like. All of the above calculations were done with pen and paper and no calculator but I stand by the work to five decimal places. LOL

Someone posted in the other thread about putting the data into a spreadsheet prior to this past week's results and using calpreps to project the last two weeks of games. He said it showed a finish of 1) LC 2) Boyle 3) Corbin. If that poster would put this past week's game results into the spreadsheet and project next week's games and post what it computes for the final RPI of each team, I would appreciate it. I'd like to see how it projects compared to my pen and paper work.

I did Corbins WP just now and the projected WP math. See if yours looks the same.

1. Pikeville (2A 1.52/4A 2.011)= .65788
2. Whitley County (5A 2.313/ 4A 2.011) = 1.15017
3. Franklin County ( 4A 2.011/ 4A 2.011) = 1.0000
4. Pulaski County ( 5A 2.313/ 4A 2.011) = 1.15017
5. Somerset ( 2A 1.521/ 4A 2.011) = .75634013
6. Simon Kenton ( 6A 2.660/ 4A 2.011) = 1.32272501
7. Knox Central (4A 2.011/ 4A 2.011) = 1.0000
8. Lincoln County ( 4A 2.011/ 4A 2.011) = 1.0000
9. Wayne County ( 4A 2.011/ 4A 2.011) = 1.0000
add all the 9 games = 9.03728531/9 = current WP of 1.00414

then add the 10th game Campbell County ( 6A 2.660/ 4A 2.011) = 1.32272501
add the 1.32272501 to the 9.03728531 = 10.3600103 and divide by 10 games and you should get 1.03600103 So Corbins WP should grow from 1.00414 to 1.03600103 after the Campbell County game if they win.. is this what you have?

That is exactly right!!!!!

So how do the playoffs work? I asked the other day and was told that the rpi goes into effect come round 3.

Based on the brackets if seeds hold Corbin will play Harlan county and Wayne. Does the RPI eliminate the “regional champion”? By bracket it would be Johnson Central in round 3 or would we potentially get Boyle or LC in round 3? How does the western teams factor in? Do they have a separate rpi to go by or is it just the east is that much stronger that we usually don’t factor them in? This confuses the Dickens out of me. I’m just trying to figure out the route to Commonwealth Stadium.

1st two rounds of course is district play

Round 3 will be seeded by RPI only in the EAST ( Corbin, Boyle, Lexington Catholic, Johnson Central) so if round 3 was today using the current RPI you would have
1 Corbin vs 4 Johnson Central
2 Boyle vs 3 Lexington Catholic

Round 4 will be seeded by RPI EAST and WEST combined... Thats when Franklin, Central, Warren East, Logan, or whoever is left is combined with the remaining EAST teams and then of course 1x4 and 2x3 based on RPI

https://khsaa.org/football/2022/brackets/2022_4A.pdf

Corbin plays Letcher/Knox winner if they beat Harlan County

As long as Corbin remains #1 or #2 seed according to RPI they will never have to leave Campbell Field to get to Kroger.

Let's say the Hounds finish #1, with Boyle #2 , Lex Cath #3 , and JC #4.

Hounds path to Kroger might be something like:

Round 1 => Harlan Co. at Corbin
Round 2=> Letcher Co. Cent. at Corbin
Round 3 => Johnson Central at Corbin
Semis => Warren East at Corbin
Final => Corbin vs. Boyle

If Corbin drop to #2 RPI and Boyle is #1:

First two rounds would be the same .

Round 3 => Lex Cath at Corbin
Semis => Spencer Co. at Corbin
Final => Boyle vs. Corbin

If Corbin drops to #3 behind #1 Boyle and #2 Lex Cath :

First two rounds the same.
Round 3=> Corbin at Lex Catholic
Semis => Spencer Co. at Corbin
Final => Boyle vs. Corbin

If Corbin drops to #3 behind #1 Lex Catholic and #2 Boyle Co. :

First two rounds the same.
Round 3 => Corbin at Boyle Co.
Semis => Spencer Co. at Corbin
Final => Lex. Cath vs. Corbin

Those would be the hypothetical path for the Hounds, depending on the final RPI rankings.

Moral of this story for the Hounds ... DON'T FINISH THIRD IN RPI AND YOU GET TO STAY IN THE COMFY CONFINES OF CAMPBELL FIELD UNTIL KROGER !!!!!

You know in all honesty. I don’t think anyone is afraid to play each other. But I bet all three coaches are hoping they don’t have to go to either one of these 3 places on the road in the 3rd round. Can’t imagine any of them are easy places to win. I was really worried if it was close coming down to the end, because I wasn’t sold on Scott county. Their Ballard win has me a little stunned and second guessing myself. To me FD is a crap shoot.

Old School Hound

jetpilot

Sgt Slaughter

Colonelfan72

Ole-glory

Old School Hound

Bull got out!

Old School Hound

Corbin

Bull got out!

Bull got out!

Old School Hound

Hound05