Draw is Tuesday. Always like to pose the question of the best and worst regions to draw, ranked first to last, beforehand so later, when everyone is talking about how good or bad someone's draw was, there's something neutral to refer back to.
Don't let the people of the 39th District know that the Sweet 16 is a draw.
JokersWild24 Wrote:Draw is Tuesday. Always like to pose the question of the best and worst regions to draw, ranked first to last, beforehand so later, when everyone is talking about how good or bad someone's draw was, there's something neutral to refer back to.
The 7th region is instant doom in the first round for most teams. Not too interested in playing the 9th (CovCath). The 8th, with either Collins or Oldham County will be a handful as well.
Worst to Best (this year):
1. 7th
2. 9th
3. 8th
4. 2nd
5. 5th
6. 4th
7. 6th
8. 11th
9. 16th
10. 10th
11. 1st
12. 12th
13. 13th
14. 14th
15. 3rd
16. 15th
Lots of these were close calls.
The 16th or 2nd has one really strong team that has tradition and/or recent experience (Madisonville North-Hopkins, Ashland Blazer). There's also probably a sizable drop should one of those be upset.
The 11th and 6th may be a little down this year in terms of top-end teams, but their fields are so stacked that they'll still send a quality team because a team that would get there only to be utterly overmatched and the embarrass the region is unlikely to be able to string together a big upset and a couple of wins where they at least play over their heads.
Definitely room for debate and not trying to knock anyone's region, just an idea of how I tried to decide some of the close calls or tiebreakers.
Agreed... 15th region is definitely down this year. It will come down to who doesnât beat themselves in the finals. Worst I have seen the 15th as a whole in years.
5 v. 16
2 v. 4
13 v. 11
1 v. 10
3 v. 15
7 v. 8
6 v. 14
9 v. 12
16th..Ashland having a great year but not the draw they were hoping for I'm sure.
15th is probably is licking their chops.
14th got the same draw as last year.
13th, not the best draw. Probably be Lex Cath or HC.
9th and 7th on the same side. Of the teams that I think are the strongest-Ballard, Male and CovCath, only one will prevail to the title game.
13th drew a tough one for sure. Lex Catholic or Henry Clay would be tough. Hope for some craziness in the 11th region tournament
MVP2 Wrote:16th..Ashland having a great year but not the draw they were hoping for I'm sure.
15th is probably is licking their chops.
14th got the same draw as last year.
13th, not the best draw. Probably be Lex Cath or HC.
Started following in 97/98 and it seems like the 6th and 14th have drawn one another a disproportionate number of times in that span.
KYHoopsFan71 Wrote:9th and 7th on the same side. Of the teams that I think are the strongest-Ballard, Male and CovCath, only one will prevail to the title game.
13th drew a tough one for sure. Lex Catholic or Henry Clay would be tough. Hope for some craziness in the 11th region tournament
Set up to be a fun tournament. The 7th vs. 8th will probably be the first round game-- a contender is likely going home early. Bottom bracket is more top heavy with that game and the 9th and usually tough 6th, but they also have four of the five weakest regions as well.
Top bracket has some teams that you'd think would be able to win it, but there's a lot of parity. Upper portion of Wednesday is the Bracket of Doom-- 5th vs. 16th & 2nd vs. 4th could shake out to be very strong depending on who comes out. The winner of that is probably staring down the 11th (Lexington Catholic, Henry Clay, etc.) or McCracken in the semi too.
The extra day of rest will be helpful, but if you are John Hardin, you'd have hoped for a better draw than potentially having to beat an undefeated Ashland, Madisonville North-Hopkins, Lexington Catholic, and the best of the 6th/7th/8th/9th. Same goes for Madisonville if you replace the 16th with 4th region's best.
The 11th and, to a lesser extent, the 1st have to be happy with their draw in terms of a big picture route to the championship. There's a good chance that the 10th and 13th send respectable representatives, and you'd probably rather have seen the 14th, 15th, 3rd, and even 12th in round one, but you wouldn't want to trade your spot in the bracket for the one of the respective team playing each in the first round based on what we know as of today.
The 11th Region has had a much better record in the Sweet 16 than the 7th during the last 20 years.
rojas Wrote:The 11th Region has had a much better record in the Sweet 16 than the 7th during the last 20 years.
Surprised to learn that they had a much better record but looking back and realizing that Lafayette, Lexington Catholic, Scott County, and Madison Central all won it, that makes sense.
In the foreseeable future though, Scott County being down, more of the talent being spread among another Lexington-Fayette public school, and Lexington Christian gaining traction is probably going to hurt those numbers.
Scott County alone has been to the championship game 7 times since 1998. Then like you said, Lafayette, Lex Cath, Dunbar and Madison Central have won championships. To beat it all, Henry Clay has gone through a tremendous amount of talent and hasnât won the regional tournament in a coonâs age.
rojas Wrote:Scott County alone has been to the championship game 7 times since 1998. Then like you said, Lafayette, Lex Cath, Dunbar and Madison Central have won championships. To beat it all, Henry Clay has gone through a tremendous amount of talent and hasnât won the regional tournament in a coonâs age.
Was only counting Scott County when th hey were in the 11th so I didn't double dip, hence didn't count their 98 win, 99 runner-up, etc.
First Game of Sweet 15 could produce state champion
Region 7 and Region 5 are very stong Region 9 and Region 11 is strrong and so is Region 2
When was the last time the 15th ever got a favorable draw like this? Feel they always played the best team right out the gate.