Bluegrassrivals

The Goal
Yesterday I posted a post on the mountains and a comment in there got my wheels turning. How would a list look for the entire state over roughly the same time frame? So I started with 50 teams who qualified for the first cut. Basically a win percentage of 70%+ in one of the last 3 decades. I settled on a top 34 instead of a top 25 because there were a few surprises in those 26-34 spots. (It was originally top 35 but I screwed up and cleared number 35 from the list :1

The Scoring
Without a real way to rate them, I chose to develop the following scoring model. The data is weighted with pre-2007 and the 4 class system being a little more valuable than post-2007 data. The weighting is ~15%. Since you can roughly say that the 4 class system was about 15% more competitive.

All teams start with 100 possible points. Their initial base points are assigned based on their win%. For example Trinity has a win percentage of 82. So they start with 82 points. Each team can add to their point total the following. ways.

• Total Title Games Played (1 pt per game)
  
• Pre 2007 Title Games Played (.10 pts per game)
  
• Post 2007 Title Games Played(0.085 pts per game)
  
• Total Titles Won (.50 pts per win)
  
• Pre 2007 Win (.10 pt per win)
  
• Post 2007 Win (.085 pts per win)
  
• Total Title Games Lost (-.50 per loss) - this is not weighted by year.
  
• Undefeated Championship Season (.25 points)
  
• Undefeated Regular Season Pre 2007 (0.10 points)
  
• Undefeated Regular Season Post 2007 (0.085 points)
  
• District Title Pre 2007 (0.10 points)
  
• District Title Post 2007 (0.085 points)
  
• Regional Title (0.20 points)
  
• Regional Title Pre 2007 (0.10 points)
  
• Regional Title Post 2007 (0.085 points)
  

• 
  A couple of notes.
  
• District Titles do not give points for total district titles. It was originally there but gave too much weight to winning district titles. It may not be evident from the above but a State Title has a value of either 1.5 points or .5 points depending win or loss.
  
• Weight adjustments for pre and post-2007 only impact wins.
  

Final Observations

• Win Percentage (Wins and Losses) may cary too much weight. Some teams were carried on strong regular season win%. Eminence was one of these teams.
  
• I expected to see E-Town on the list but they couldn't overcome their poor starting points.
  
• Nelson Co, Middlesboro, Lawrence Co, Franklin Co, and Boone Co all made valiant runs but rough stretches and lack of titles (state, region and district) pushed them off the list.
  
• I might have needed to set the base criteria to 65% as teams like Murray, Owensboro, Raceland, Russellville and a couple of others my have had enough playoff success and district titles to bump some of the bottom 5-10 from the list.
  

In this image all of the pre and post 2007 data is hidden as not to be too confusing.
[Image: StatewideData.PNG]

Yes, I am an idiot who mislabeled the thread.

AtlPirateFan Wrote:The Goal
Yesterday I posted a post on the mountains and a comment in there got my wheels turning. How would a list look for the entire state over roughly the same time frame? So I started with 50 teams who qualified for the first cut. Basically a win percentage of 70%+ in one of the last 3 decades. I settled on a top 34 instead of a top 25 because there were a few surprises in those 26-34 spots. (It was originally top 35 but I screwed up and cleared number 35 from the list :1

The Scoring
Without a real way to rate them, I chose to develop the following scoring model. The data is weighted with pre-2007 and the 4 class system being a little more valuable than post-2007 data. The weighting is ~15%. Since you can roughly say that the 4 class system was about 15% more competitive.

All teams start with 100 possible points. Their initial base points are assigned based on their win%. For example Trinity has a win percentage of 82. So they start with 82 points. Each team can add to their point total the following. ways.

• Total Title Games Played (1 pt per game)
  
• Pre 2007 Title Games Played (.10 pts per game)
  
• Post 2007 Title Games Played(0.085 pts per game)
  
• Total Titles Won (.50 pts per win)
  
• Pre 2007 Win (.10 pt per win)
  
• Post 2007 Win (.085 pts per win)
  
• Total Title Games Lost (-.50 per loss) - this is not weighted by year.
  
• Undefeated Championship Season (.25 points)
  
• Undefeated Regular Season Pre 2007 (0.10 points)
  
• Undefeated Regular Season Post 2007 (0.085 points)
  
• District Title Pre 2007 (0.10 points)
  
• District Title Post 2007 (0.085 points)
  
• Regional Title (0.20 points)
  
• Regional Title Pre 2007 (0.10 points)
  
• Regional Title Post 2007 (0.085 points)
  

• 
  A couple of notes.
  
• District Titles do not give points for total district titles. It was originally there but gave too much weight to winning district titles. It may not be evident from the above but a State Title has a value of either 1.5 points or .5 points depending win or loss.
  
• Weight adjustments for pre and post-2007 only impact wins.
  

Code:

Rank    Team
1    Trinity (Louisville)
2    Beechwood
3    Highlands
4    Mayfield
5    Bowling Green
6    Danville
7    St. Xavier
8    Boyle Co.
9    Belfry
10    Male
11    Bell Co.
12    Newport Central Catholic
13    Pikeville
14    Hazard
15    Central
16    Covington Catholic
17    Breathitt Co.
18    Corbin
19    Owensboro Catholic
20    Scott Co.
21    Lexington Catholic
22    Russell
23    Franklin Simpson
24    Bardstown
25    Rockcastle Co.
26    Glasgow
27    Johnson Central
28    DeSales
29    Paducah Tilghman
30    Ashland Blazer
31    Caldwell Co.
32    Fort Campbell
33    Williamsburg
34    Pulaski Co.

Final Observations

• Win Percentage (Wins and Losses) may cary too much weight. Some teams were carried on strong regular season win%. Eminence was one of these teams.
  
• I expected to see E-Town on the list but they couldn't overcome their poor starting points.
  
• Nelson Co, Middlesboro, Lawrence Co, Franklin Co, and Boone Co all made valiant runs but rough stretches and lack of titles (state, region and district) pushed them off the list.
  
• I might have needed to set the base criteria to 65% as teams like Murray, Owensboro, Raceland, Russellville and a couple of others my have had enough playoff success and district titles to bump some of the bottom 5-10 from the list.
  

In this image all of the pre and post 2007 data is hidden as not to be too confusing.
[Image: StatewideData.PNG]

This is Awesome Piratefan

This great good job bud

This is some interesting stuff right here.

Great job!

Very, Very impressive

As much as I’d like to see the hounds higher up, it’s hard to argue with solid numbers. Good work!

Pretty awesome

Interesting no Fayette County schools on list

Solid work but as a lifetime Pikeville fan to me it's just another calculation from a Belfry fan that just happens to start the first year after Pikeville won three championships in a row.

One question concerning Danville.

You list the Ads with three unbeaten titles and three undefeated seasons.

I was wondering that the Ads were unbeaten in the regular season in 1993 but lost in OT in the semi-finals. Would that make it four unbeaten regular seasons?

Hatz Wrote:One question concerning Danville.

You list the Ads with three unbeaten titles and three undefeated seasons.

I was wondering that the Ads were unbeaten in the regular season in 1993 but lost in OT in the semi-finals. Would that make it four unbeaten regular seasons?

You are 100% correct, the files I am using to compile the data had Danville partially obscured in 1993 so I missed it, added it to the spreadsheet and it gives them a little point boost but doesn't move them up any.

jetpilot Wrote:Solid work but as a lifetime Pikeville fan to me it's just another calculation from a Belfry fan that just happens to start the first year after Pikeville won three championships in a row.

I totally forgot to add Pikeville's weighting to the report. So I have done so and revised the list below.

Pikeville weights - which states that no matter what era you are discussing you must remember and take into account 1987-1989. You must ignore Belfry's victory in 1989 and you must remember that all Pikeville State Titles are worth 25% more than every other teams titles. nicker:

Taking that into account here is the top 15 from 1990-2018 with Pikeville weighting added.


Sorry Jet, I just can't get you guys above Belfry without tripling the value of every catergory. :Sad04:

You have Breathitt down for 0 undefeated titles season. They actually have 3 (95,96,02) Great work.

wolfcat Wrote:You have Breathitt down for 0 undefeated titles season. They actually have 3 (95,96,02) Great work.

They are actually factored into their score, I must have cleared it out when I was making a cleaned up screenshot for the website.

This is great stuff!!! Thanks for putting this together! I've really enjoyed looking at the numbers and remembering some of these teams awesome seasons!

Great work!!

Jetpilot be up in here like "I can't take these stats serious unless all teams who start with the letter P and have a mascot that rhymes with Fan-Furs are given a the ability to hand pick 10 separate years of their history to remove from the calculation"

AtlPirateFan Wrote:I totally forgot to add Pikeville's weighting to the report. So I have done so and revised the list below.



Pikeville weights - which states that no matter what era you are discussing you must remember and take into account 1987-1989. You must ignore Belfry's victory in 1989 and you must remember that all Pikeville State Titles are worth 25% more than every other teams titles.



Taking that into account here is the top 15 from 1990-2018 with Pikeville weighting added.

Code:

1 Trinity (Louisville)<br /><br />
2 Beechwood<br /><br />
3 Highlands<br /><br />
4 Mayfield<br /><br />
5 Bowling Green<br /><br />
6 Danville<br /><br />
7 St. Xavier<br /><br />
8 Boyle Co.<br /><br />
9 Belfry (96.86)<br /><br />
10 Pikeville (92.04)<br /><br />
11 Male<br /><br />
12 Bell Co.<br /><br />
13 Newport Central Catholic<br /><br />
14 Hazard<br /><br />
15 Central<br /><br />

Sorry Jet, I just can't get you guys above Belfry without tripling the value of every catergory.

Haha I didn't say any of that but we can get them above Belfry this year though.

Not sure if it matters or not but where would Mercer County be if you incorporated the Harrodsburg accomplishments in the equation? They would have 2 Finals Losses and 1 title under the Mercer brand.

Just curious.

I'm honestly surprised that Trinity took the top spot given some of the seasons we had in the 90s.

CarzyRock Wrote:I'm honestly surprised that Trinity took the top spot given some of the seasons we had in the 90s.

But them 2000's though.....That's the best run in KHSAA history. Highlands and Mayfield had some dynasty runs, but Beatty had a run like no other.

Mayfield at number 4 with more wins and less losses and higher winning percentage than the 3 above them dont get it????

barnabus_c2001 Wrote:Mayfield at number 4 with more wins and less losses and higher winning percentage than the 3 above them dont get it????

If you actually, ya know, READ the original poster, there were more things than just wins and losses factored in. For example, state titles, undefeated seasons, district and regional titles, etc. a weighted value point system. The OP was simply trying to find a way to “rank” objectively statewide for a specific time frame.

barnabus_c2001 Wrote:Mayfield at number 4 with more wins and less losses and higher winning percentage than the 3 above them dont get it????

The biggest thing that hurt Mayfield is that
- over half their state title appearances were post 2007
- only 3 state title wins pre-2007 compared to (Trinity 7, Beechwood 8, Highlands 6)
- 8 title losses and .500 win% in state finals

In a scoring system that rates the 4 class accomplishments just a little higher than 6 class Mayfield falls to 4th.

If I remove the weights and make everything equal pre and post 2007 Mayfield is still 4th, those 8 losses really hurt them when comparing them to (Trinity 3 lost, Beechwood 4 lost, Highlands 3 lost)

There are essentially 4 tiers in the top 15 or so, what this means is that depending on how much weight you give a certain data point teams in that tier may shuffle around, a team moving into a new tier or falling to a lower tier would take adjusting the weighting in an unrealistic manner (kinda like I did jokingly in response to Jetpilot earlier in the thread).

Weighting a title game loss (negatively) the same and title game win really makes no sense at all? Looks like someone back calculated "constants" to get the results they wanted.

Jackson Purchase Wrote:Weighting a title game loss (negatively) the same and title game win really makes no sense at all? Looks like someone back calculated "constants" to get the results they wanted.

If so he did a poor job. Belfry fan. Lol. I doubt he back calculated these. Chips just fall where they may sometimes.

Jackson Purchase Wrote:Weighting a title game loss (negatively) the same and title game win really makes no sense at all? Looks like someone back-calculated "constants" to get the results they wanted.

First, I went into this with absolutely zero expectations of results. Truth be told if I was to say now in retrospect what I might have thought before anything was calculated. I would have said I expect Highlands to be #1, Belfry to not crack the top 10, Danville to be lower, Central and Corbin to be higher.

The reality is if the negative impact of losing a state title is removed only two things happen. Mayfield and Highlands swap spots and O.Cath moves down.