Bluegrassrivals

Interesting stat, but since the introduction of the three point line into the college game in 1986, there have only been a handful of teams shoot below 70% from the line and still take home the title.

I bring this up because Duke, who is an overwhelming favorite, only shoots 69% from the line, and neither Williamson (65.4%) or Reddish (66.2%) are particularly good from the stripe. DeLaurier, 7th on the team in minutes per game, shoots 58.5% as well.


2015 - Duke - 69.6%

The next lowest of the 2010's is Louisville at 70.7%, and no other team in that decade shot lower than 72.3% (2012 Kentucky). The recent trend has favored teams who shoot it well, with 2016 Villanova's 79% being the highest of the three point era, better than their 2018 rate (77.9%). Others include UNC's 74.3% in 2017, and UConn's 77.4% in 2014 and 76.1% in 2011.



2007 - Florida - 69%
2004 - UConn - 62.3%
2003 - Syracuse - 69.4%
2001 - Duke - 69.6%

The 2000's were the worst decade for this stat. Two other teams in this timeframe shot ~72%, two above 75.5%, with the others being 70% and 74%.



1998 - Kentucky - 67.5%
1997 - Arizona - 65.5%
1994 - Arkansas - 68%
1990 - UNLV - 69.9%

The 1996 Kentucky team shot 71.3%. Otherwise, two teams shot 73%, with the remaining teams shooting ~75%, 72% and 70% in the 1990's.



1988 - Kansas - 69%

Michigan shot 73.5% in 1989 and Indiana shot 76% in 1986.


In short, roughly 1/3 of the teams in the past 32 years, only 10 teams have shot less than 70% from the line and still managed to win it all, with the recent trend indicating that the percentage is rising, and whether that is due to statistical variations or the influx of data analysis in the game might be an interesting debate.

Interesting breakdown. Something tells me free throws will be key this time around, especially Elite 8 and beyond.

Corbin1980 Wrote:Interesting breakdown. Something tells me free throws will be key this time around, especially Elite 8 and beyond.

Agreed.

Many of the teams with exceptionally poor free throw shooting percentages seemed to have defenses anchored by a strong rim protector (and I'd imagine that there's a pretty significant correlation between the amount of shots a player blocks and their free throw shooting percentage if holding all else constant).

For me, the most surprising of all of those teams on the list was 97 Arizona. Looking back, you think of Bibby as a clutch shooter and Jason Terry as a gunner, but both were barely above 70% on the season. They were probably the greatest exception to the rule.

I think UCF and Dawkins' knowledge of Coach K's system exposed some flaws and gave teams with the proper personnel a blueprint for beating them. Lots of teams won't have a rim protector like Fall, but they did expose some holes in Duke's game even without him on the floor.