Bluegrassrivals

Lots of variety in the polls. Who do you have where?

Tier 1:

1. Villanova -

Most dominating team so far. Lots of future pros and great metrics on both offense and defense. I don't want to crown them yet, but think that they are 1 and 1a. with Duke. West Virginia is going to be a scary game for them though.


2. Duke -

Lots of talent. I don't think Wendell Carter gets enough credit for what he does. Very tough to match-up with. If they're making their shots and Grayson Allen is keeping calm and collected, then they are going to be a handful. They do have a tendency to throw out some real clunkers too though.


Tier 2:

3. Kansas –

Love Devontae Graham’s intangibles and think that Mykhailiuk is another of the nation’s more underappreciated players, but they have issues on the whole—Newman and Vick are streaky and they lack depth on the interior. I think they match up well with anyone individually, I just don’t know that they string together a few games consecutively.


4. Texas Tech –

Don’t laugh. Their string of losses late came with as many as three key players missing. They are more athletic than they get credit for (or at least than they were getting credit for before Zhaire Smith’s 180 reverse alley oop that he pulled off casually). They get after it on defense. Losses were all to NCAA tournament teams, save one to Oklahoma State, and as already mentioned, many losses came with key players out.


5. West Virginia –

Carter can take the opposition’s best perimeter player out of the game and Konate can protect the rim as well as anyone in the nation if he can keep his emotions in check. Getting hot at the right time. I think they’ll give Villanova all they want and then some. Will be suspect in games that are called tightly, as they could get whistled out easily. Otherwise, offensive lulls where they can’t score (and get into their pressure to create turnovers and easy baskets) will be their downfall.


6. Kentucky –

Lots of talent, and kind of hedging them here with Vanderbilt’s status as a bit of an unknown, though I would guess that he’s “probable”. But for the Cats’ propensity to throw in complete clunkers (see the Florida game to end the regular season), they’d be higher. When they are clicking, they are possibly as good as Duke and Villanova. They just don’t have the consistency to put them higher. Their SEC tournament wins against the likes of Alabama and Tennessee also look less impressive considering that those two are now watching from home.


7. Michigan –

I’m just not sold. They haven’t really looked great in the tournament so far, and needed a miracle three to beat a so-so Houston team (though Wagner was in serious foul trouble most of the game). Their metrics look good, but watching them play, they don’t really pass the eye test for me. The Big 10 hasn’t really set the world on fire during the NCAA Tournament either.


8. Texas A&M –

Lots of potential. Up and down season full of suspensions, injuries, and dismissals. May be addition by subtraction though. I first saw DJ Hogue (and Tyler Davis) play when they were in high school and think that Hogue is a bit overrated, but there’s no denying his ability to stroke from deep when he’s on. Because of their size and Robert Williams’ ability to control the paint defensively, they are a bad match-up for lots of teams, but find themselves here because they’ve shown absolutely no consistency.


9. Purdue –

Injury to Haas moves them here. I was not a huge fan during the regular season. I don’t think that they are the kind of team that is athletic enough to get the kind of love that they were seeing. I know they shoot the ball well, and maybe I just caught them on some bad nights (the first time I saw them was in a loss to WKU, and I watched them lose to Wisconsin too), but I wasn’t overly impressed with what I saw from them. Yes, I know that I'm probably being too harsh on them, but I just see a team that I think is overrated with more question marks being added. For instance, not only is the question now who picks up the slack for Haas' scoring, passing on the interior, and per minute production, but also if the team as a whole can continue their torrid shooting pace (which looks bound to fall back to Earth after setting the world on fire in the opening weekend).


Tier 3:

10. Gonzaga –

They’ll probably go to the Final Four, but I think that they are one of those high-floor/low-ceiling types. I’ve seen them play a few times (being in the Central Time Zone and traveling into the Mountain Time Zone region for work often means lots more Big 12 games and “late” games)-- what you see is what you get. Tilley is good, but I don’t know that he and Perkins are the kind of players that you can count on taking you all the way to the promised land.


11. Syracuse –

Better than they get credit for, but still somewhat of a one-trick pony in that they’ll stay in an active 2-3 and hope that your ball reversal and percentage of open looks in the three point shooting lottery aren’t enough to beat them. Have seen them a few times and thought that they’ve improved through the year, but not sure that they are capable enough offensively to bail themselves out of a hole against a good team.


12. Nevada –

Lots of size and can score from multiple positions, but not deep at all. Eventually, the minutes that their top six play will catch up to them. Have been without one of their top players since mid- to late-February, and while Musselman is an ex-NBA Coach who knows what it takes, I could see them using lots of smoke and mirrors to stretch an already thin and limited roster—I could see them pulling an Auburn where the culmination of everything really takes it’s toll on them at the worst possible time.


Tier 4:


13. Kansas State –

Solid record in a good conference, but kind of the same thing you see in Gonzaga as being a high-floor/low-ceiling type if fully healthy. Injury bug has not been kind either.


14. Clemson –

See Kansas State.


15. Florida State –

Good enough team with decent talent, but not sure that they are going to do more than be a spoiler for someone else. Just don’t see them stringing together two to four more wins. They probably play Gonzaga tougher than most think, and have a good draw in terms of the number of games they’d probably have to play completely over their heads to get to the Final, but I just don’t see them being a team that is smart and efficient enough to do it.


16. Loyola Chicago –

I think highly of them, but don’t know who I’d put them ahead of. Miami was a nice win, but they’d just lost one of their best players for the season a couple of weeks before. Tennessee was a good team that most people had more love for than I. Yes, they could grind it out defensively, but they didn’t really score in a way that would allow them to take early kill shots and shut the door on people early. Those high leverage possession teams, as we’ve seen with Virginia, Cincinnati, etc., haven’t typically fared well in tournament play. Have to put them here because I see them as the least likely team to reach the Final Four in the easiest remaining region.

RealJokersWild24 Wrote:Tier 1:

1. Villanova -

Most dominating team so far. Lots of future pros and great metrics on both offense and defense. I don't want to crown them yet, but think that they are 1 and 1a. with Duke. West Virginia is going to be a scary game for them though.


2. Duke -

Lots of talent. I don't think Wendell Carter gets enough credit for what he does. Very tough to match-up with. If they're making their shots and Grayson Allen is keeping calm and collected, then they are going to be a handful. They do have a tendency to throw out some real clunkers too though.


Tier 2:

3. Kansas –

Love Devontae Graham’s intangibles and think that Mykhailiuk is another of the nation’s more underappreciated players, but they have issues on the whole—Newman and Vick are streaky and they lack depth on the interior. I think they match up well with anyone individually, I just don’t know that they string together a few games consecutively.


4. Texas Tech –

Don’t laugh. Their string of losses late came with as many as three key players missing. They are more athletic than they get credit for (or at least than they were getting credit for before Zhaire Smith’s 180 reverse alley oop that he pulled off casually). They get after it on defense. Losses were all to NCAA tournament teams, save one to Oklahoma State, and as already mentioned, many losses came with key players out.


5. West Virginia –

Carter can take the opposition’s best perimeter player out of the game and Konate can protect the rim as well as anyone in the nation if he can keep his emotions in check. Getting hot at the right time. I think they’ll give Villanova all they want and then some. Will be suspect in games that are called tightly, as they could get whistled out easily. Otherwise, offensive lulls where they can’t score (and get into their pressure to create turnovers and easy baskets) will be their downfall.


6. Kentucky –

Lots of talent, and kind of hedging them here with Vanderbilt’s status as a bit of an unknown, though I would guess that he’s “probable”. But for the Cats’ propensity to throw in complete clunkers (see the Florida game to end the regular season), they’d be higher. When they are clicking, they are possibly as good as Duke and Villanova. They just don’t have the consistency to put them higher. Their SEC tournament wins against the likes of Alabama and Tennessee also look less impressive considering that those two are now watching from home.


7. Michigan –

I’m just not sold. They haven’t really looked great in the tournament so far, and needed a miracle three to beat a so-so Houston team (though Wagner was in serious foul trouble most of the game). Their metrics look good, but watching them play, they don’t really pass the eye test for me. The Big 10 hasn’t really set the world on fire during the NCAA Tournament either.


8. Texas A&M –

Lots of potential. Up and down season full of suspensions, injuries, and dismissals. May be addition by subtraction though. I first saw DJ Hogue (and Tyler Davis) play when they were in high school and think that Hogue is a bit overrated, but there’s no denying his ability to stroke from deep when he’s on. Because of their size and Robert Williams’ ability to control the paint defensively, they are a bad match-up for lots of teams, but find themselves here because they’ve shown absolutely no consistency.


9. Purdue –

Injury to Haas moves them here. I was not a huge fan during the regular season. I don’t think that they are the kind of team that is athletic enough to get the kind of love that they were seeing. I know they shoot the ball well, and maybe I just caught them on some bad nights (the first time I saw them was in a loss to WKU, and I watched them lose to Wisconsin too), but I wasn’t overly impressed with what I saw from them. Yes, I know that I'm probably being too harsh on them, but I just see a team that I think is overrated with more question marks being added. For instance, not only is the question now who picks up the slack for Haas' scoring, passing on the interior, and per minute production, but also if the team as a whole can continue their torrid shooting pace (which looks bound to fall back to Earth after setting the world on fire in the opening weekend).


Tier 3:

10. Gonzaga –

They’ll probably go to the Final Four, but I think that they are one of those high-floor/low-ceiling types. I’ve seen them play a few times (being in the Central Time Zone and traveling into the Mountain Time Zone region for work often means lots more Big 12 games and “late” games)-- what you see is what you get. Tilley is good, but I don’t know that he and Perkins are the kind of players that you can count on taking you all the way to the promised land.


11. Syracuse –

Better than they get credit for, but still somewhat of a one-trick pony in that they’ll stay in an active 2-3 and hope that your ball reversal and percentage of open looks in the three point shooting lottery aren’t enough to beat them. Have seen them a few times and thought that they’ve improved through the year, but not sure that they are capable enough offensively to bail themselves out of a hole against a good team.


12. Nevada –

Lots of size and can score from multiple positions, but not deep at all. Eventually, the minutes that their top six play will catch up to them. Have been without one of their top players since mid- to late-February, and while Musselman is an ex-NBA Coach who knows what it takes, I could see them using lots of smoke and mirrors to stretch an already thin and limited roster—I could see them pulling an Auburn where the culmination of everything really takes it’s toll on them at the worst possible time.


Tier 4:


13. Kansas State –

Solid record in a good conference, but kind of the same thing you see in Gonzaga as being a high-floor/low-ceiling type if fully healthy. Injury bug has not been kind either.


14. Clemson –

See Kansas State.


15. Florida State –

Good enough team with decent talent, but not sure that they are going to do more than be a spoiler for someone else. Just don’t see them stringing together two to four more wins. They probably play Gonzaga tougher than most think, and have a good draw in terms of the number of games they’d probably have to play completely over their heads to get to the Final, but I just don’t see them being a team that is smart and efficient enough to do it.


16. Loyola Chicago –

I think highly of them, but don’t know who I’d put them ahead of. Miami was a nice win, but they’d just lost one of their best players for the season a couple of weeks before. Tennessee was a good team that most people had more love for than I. Yes, they could grind it out defensively, but they didn’t really score in a way that would allow them to take early kill shots and shut the door on people early. Those high leverage possession teams, as we’ve seen with Virginia, Cincinnati, etc., haven’t typically fared well in tournament play. Have to put them here because I see them as the least likely team to reach the Final Four in the easiest remaining region.

Kentucky all the way.

Kentucky should be ahead of West Virginia. They beat them on their own home floor and Kentucky has been the hottest team coming into the tourney.

Strikeout King Wrote:Kentucky should be ahead of West Virginia. They beat them on their own home floor and Kentucky has been the hottest team coming into the tourney.

I agree. Kentucky seems to be getting better and better.

I can buy your rankings for the most part, wouldn't have them exactly the same way obviously, but the one spot in your rankings I really have the hardest time with is Kansas. I just feel like they aren't really that good, not at a 'normal' Kansas level. And don't forget Self has only been to the Final Four once in the last eight years, that's a little lean for one of the Blue Blood programs. Anyway, it may be just wishful thinking on my part (because for some reason I just can't stand Kansas) but even if they get by Clemson (toss-up), I think there's no way they are beating Duke.

Van Hagar Wrote:I can buy your rankings for the most part, wouldn't have them exactly the same way obviously, but the one spot in your rankings I really have the hardest time with is Kansas. I just feel like they aren't really that good, not at a 'normal' Kansas level. And don't forget Self has only been to the Final Four once in the last eight years, that's a little lean for one of the Blue Blood programs. Anyway, it may be just wishful thinking on my part (because for some reason I just can't stand Kansas) but even if they get by Clemson (toss-up), I think there's no way they are beating Duke.

I hope Puke loses

West Virginia has looked more dominant in the tournament so far. Kentucky barely covered a five point spread against Davidson. I love the Cats, but I think West Virginia is a bit more dangerous if Kentucky is without Vanderbilt. Very close though.

RealJokersWild24 Wrote:West Virginia has looked more dominant in the tournament so far. Kentucky barely covered a five point spread against Davidson. I love the Cats, but I think West Virginia is a bit more dangerous if Kentucky is without Vanderbilt. Very close though.

West Virginia's coach said Kentucky is the better team

pjdoug Wrote:West Virginia's coach said Kentucky is the better team

I hope they are. Just afraid that a game like the one at Florida rears it's ugly head again.

Van Hagar Wrote:I can buy your rankings for the most part, wouldn't have them exactly the same way obviously, but the one spot in your rankings I really have the hardest time with is Kansas. I just feel like they aren't really that good, not at a 'normal' Kansas level. And don't forget Self has only been to the Final Four once in the last eight years, that's a little lean for one of the Blue Blood programs. Anyway, it may be just wishful thinking on my part (because for some reason I just can't stand Kansas) but even if they get by Clemson (toss-up), I think there's no way they are beating Duke.

Can definitely see that. Living in the middle of Big 12 Country, I usually get lots of Kansas games on, so far me, it might be a case of overexposure. Know that plenty aren't huge on them and agree that they aren't your normal Kansas team. I just really like their backcourt of Graham and Mykhailiuk.

Duke is a very bad matchup for Kansas because they are so deep across their front lines where Kansas has to live and die with Azubuike (staying out of foul trouble, hitting his free throws, etc.).

Looking like I was a little too hard on Loyola-Chicago.