The evidence that Trump is in over his head keeps pouring in. IMO, Trump either wins 1,237 delegates before the GOP convention, or he can kiss his chance to be president goodbye.
This is Trump's first national campaign and it is Cruz's first national campaign. Cruz has built a strong national ground organization and is well prepared for every contingency. Trump has run a Celebrity Campaign that relies heavily on free publicity and personal insults. Cruz's hard work is beginning to pay dividends. Trump likes to refer to hard work as "cheating."
If Cruz wins this nomination, he will do so because of his planning, organization, and attention to detail. If he loses, he will have established himself as a political force to be reckoned with for the next two or three decades. When he runs his next campaign, he will not begin the campaign as an unknown.
Quote:Cruz snaring Trump's Arizona delegates
Sen. Ted Cruz is out-hustling Donald Trump and looks set to ensure many Arizona delegates will defect to him in a convention floor fight.
The Texas senator, who ever since Iowa has played a stealthy ground game in contrast to Trump's chaotic populism, is taking steps to snatch the Republican presidential nomination from The Donald at the convention in July.
The New York businessman easily won last month's Arizona primary taking 47 percent to Cruz's 25 percent, scooping up all 58 of the state's delegates. That's nearly 5 percent of the 1,237 Trump needs for the nomination, and they're tied are to him on the first ballot.
But Cruz, exploiting deep opposition to Trump among grassroots Republicans, has been far more active in Arizona than Trump, insiders say. He's recruiting candidates for the available 55 delegate slots, that along with the other three delegate positions filled by party leaders, would be allowed to vote for him in a multi-ballot contested convention.
"Cruz, out of all the campaigns, has the most folks on the ground and has been the most organized," Michael Noble, a Republican consultant in Arizona who is neutral, told the Washington Examiner on Friday.
"Trump has no real organization in Arizona," added GOP strategist Sean Noble (no relation) in an email exchange. "Cruz will get most/all Arizona delegates on second ballot."
Whichever one wins this, they're going to have just as difficult of a time working with their own party as they do the opposing party because of the deep divide. I'll admit, I initially thought the Republicans would have a great shot at winning this one. I'm not so sure now.
I don't think so, Wide. Cruz has assembled and managed a massive campaign organization. His problem in the Senate has been that he is a junior Senator dealing with a RINO Senate Majority Leader determined to cut backroom deals with Obama. There is no junior President and a president fresh from winning a national election enters office with a great deal of power.
As for the general campaign, Trump has lost a good part of the Republican Party already and with all of his complaining and his constant string of insults at Cruz, it will be hard for his core supporters to line up behind Cruz. If Trump loses and loses graciously, he could make the healing process easier, but I do not see that happening. If Cruz loses, I expect him to be gracious in defeat but I do not expect him to expend much energy to help Trump mend all of the fences that he has plowed under during the campaign. Win or lose, I think that the campaign Trump has run will once again depress Republican turnout.
I agree with you about this election - it should have been an easy win, but now it looks like an uphill battle. Trump has set the tone of the campaign and even if he is not the nominee, he has made a mess for the Republican Party to clean up. Just think about the media demanding that every Republican for a Senate or House seat go on the record agreeing with or condemning the stupid things that Trump has already said on the campaign trail.
The 2016 campaigns should have been a happy time with Republican candidates aggressively attacking all of the failures of Obama, Clinton, and their henchmen and henchwomen in Congress. Instead, it looks like the media will try to make all elections referendums on the most unpopular presidential candidate in modern history. If anybody can make Hillary Clinton, the second most unpopular presidential candidate in history, look good in comparison, it is Donald J. Trump with his 74 percent unfavorable rating among women.
There is still some hope that Trump will fail to win the majority of delegates on the first ballot. But you are right. This divisive primary campaign will make it hard for any Republican to win in November.
I see a sleeper.....Paul Ryan :pondering:
If Trump doesn't get to 1237 neither Trump nor cruz will be president.
They will stab Cruz in the back jut as hard as ever.
RunItUpTheGut Wrote:If Trump doesn't get to 1237 neither Trump nor cruz will be president.
They will stab Cruz in the back jut as hard as ever.
Harder.
I keep reading that the establishment will stab Trump and Cruz in the back, but nobody can explain how that will happen. Delegates decide the rules. Unless Cruz and Trump decide to stab themselves in the back, they should have at least two or three ballots to make their cases. There are no ties at political conventions, so if Trump or Cruz cannot win a majority of delegates in a reasonable amount of time, then neither will be president. That is how conventions have always worked but I don't see how that would be getting stabbed in the back. That is Trump-speak.
Hoot Gibson Wrote:I keep reading that the establishment will stab Trump and Cruz in the back, but nobody can explain how that will happen. Delegates decide the rules. Unless Cruz and Trump decide to stab themselves in the back, they should have at least two or three ballots to make their cases. There are no ties at political conventions, so if Trump or Cruz cannot win a majority of delegates in a reasonable amount of time, then neither will be president. That is how conventions have always worked but I don't see how that would be getting stabbed in the back. That is Trump-speak.
Assumedly you are referring to Run's post above, but your interpretation of his post may be somewhat lacking. Cruz
is being stabbed in the back, I mean how long did it take for him to get his first Senate endorsement, like 8 months into the campaign or something like that? Not that it makes any hay with me, but it's common knowledge that he is not liked up on the Hill. That's why anybody should be able to see that all his foot stomping and blowing smoke rings is for show. We will be very lucky to survive the present imperial administration, we don't need another. In any case, the imperatives and thundering on about what all he will do before the first sunset is about as likely as Obama playing nice until next January 20th.
I like the outsider message being sent to D.C., they don't. And because they don't, Cruz is completely on his own save for precious few who have broken ranks with the establishment to openly support him.
TheRealThing Wrote:Assumedly you are referring to Run's post above, but your interpretation of his post may be somewhat lacking. Cruz is being stabbed in the back, I mean how long did it take for him to get his first Senate endorsement, like 8 months into the campaign or something like that? Not that it makes any hay with me, but it's common knowledge that he is not liked up on the Hill. That's why anybody should be able to see that all his foot stomping and blowing smoke rings is for show. We will be very lucky to survive the present imperial administration, we don't need another. In any case, the imperatives and thundering on about what all he will do before the first sunset is about as likely as Obama playing nice until next January 20th.
I like the outsider message being sent to D.C., they don't. And because they don't, Cruz is completely on his own save for precious few who have broken ranks with the establishment to openly support him.
I agree with you on one thing. We do not need another imperial presidency, but that is exactly what a Trump presidency would be. Trump has far more in common with Obama than Cruz does. Trump judges people almost entirely on whether they like him or not. So does Obama, and that is why he has surrounded himself with such an incompetent, compliant group of advisers and Cabinet members.
Compare the campaign organizations that Cruz and Trump, have built. Trump has relied on his celebrity as a self promoting TV star and large pep rallies, while Cruz has been building a network of state campaign staff and volunteers since he announced that he was running. Only recently did Trump realize that he lacked a competent campaign staff that was unable to compete for delegate support with Cruz's professionals.
If getting along with people like McConnell matters to you, then Trump is your man. With $2 trillion budgets as far as the eye can see, Trump will have plenty of money to buy support, just as he did as a private citizen. I will always see that as corruption, but please feel free to consider it as getting along with Congressional leadership if you want. A Trump nomination will be a vote for a corrupt status quo, or worse.
People who stand on principle are rarely popular, but I have always preferred being right over being popular, which I see the choice of Cruz over Trump as a no-brainer.
Delegate slots in state after state are filling up fast with people strongly opposed to Trump. Indiana is the latest example. Trump has one shot at the nomination and that shot is a win on the first ballot.
I don't think Trump can afford to lose the nomination. The Trump brand will be worthless if he gets branded as a big loser.
Quote:Trump’s getting trounced in Indiana
Indiana hasn’t cast its ballots for president yet, but Donald Trump is already losing.
Republican Party insiders in the state will select 27 delegates to the national convention on Saturday, and Trump is assured to be nearly shut out of support, according to interviews with a dozen party leaders and officials involved in the delegate selection process. Anti-Trump sentiment runs hot among GOP leadership in Indiana, and it’s driving a virulent rejection of the mogul among likely delegates.
“If Satan had the lead on him and was one delegate away from being nominated as our candidate, and Donald Trump was the alternative, I might vote for Donald Trump,” said Craig Dunn, a local GOP leader who is running to represent Indiana’s 4th Congressional District at the national convention in Cleveland. “I’ve always wanted to own a casino, but he couldn’t give me a casino and have me vote for him.”
Indiana GOP insiders are working to engineer slates of delegates — three from each of nine congressional districts — that will turn their backs on Trump at a contested convention in July. Another 27 will be elected at a state committee meeting next week.
Indiana’s delegates will be bound to the results of the state’s May 3 primary on the first vote in Cleveland, and Trump is expected to be competitive in that contest. (There is no current public polling of the state, but several GOP leaders suggested he'd be competitive in at least a couple of the state's nine Congressional districts.) But if Trump fails to clinch the nomination, they’ll be free to vote their conscience — and that means a rapid rejection of Trump. The state’s Republican national committeeman, John Hammond, has vocally called to reject Trump as well.
That would mark just another blow to Trump’s chances, should the convention go to a second ballot as expected. Though he’s won more votes and state primaries than rivals Ted Cruz and John Kasich, Trump has failed spectacularly to win separate delegate selection battles to his better-organized rivals. Though in most cases, he’s lost because of Cruz’s superior organization, Indiana appears to be a break from the norm. Most of the hostility to Trump there is homegrown.
RunItUpTheGut Wrote:If Trump doesn't get to 1237 neither Trump nor cruz will be president.
They will stab Cruz in the back jut as hard as ever.
Hell, after talking with a poster here, I can't resist. I'll bet a slick $100(first caller), a democrat wins 2016 Presidential.
I love seeing the GOParty breakup played out here, as well as nationwide. :biggrin:You guys fight better amongst yourselves, than you do with liberals.
TheRealVille Wrote:Hell, after talking with a poster here, I can't resist. I'll bet a slick $100(first caller), a democrat wins 2016 Presidential.
I love seeing the GOParty breakup played out here, as well as nationwide. :biggrin:You guys fight better amongst yourselves, than you do with liberals.
They have no ideal :Cheerlead
My disgust for the establishment at this point still isn't. 00001% of the disgust I have for the socialist democrat scum who have infiltrated our society. Until liberalism is completely eradicated there will be no great America again. Bernie is wasting time. He's only hepping the repubs by keeping the liars attention away from the general. What shame some of you Democrats must feel to watch the socialist bring out the real scum of the country.
I have faith Trump or Cruz will be the next president of the United States and if for some miracle your socialist take over be prepared. This country will be brought to its knees.
Personally I don't care either way. It may be time for a revolution to get all the safe space guns free lgqbtsgmd bunch to be shown the door in one form or another.
RunItUpTheGut Wrote:My disgust for the establishment at this point still isn't. 00001% of the disgust I have for the socialist democrat scum who have infiltrated our society. Until liberalism is completely eradicated there will be no great America again. Bernie is wasting time. He's only hepping the repubs by keeping the liars attention away from the general. What shame some of you Democrats must feel to watch the socialist bring out the real scum of the country.
I have faith Trump or Cruz will be the next president of the United States and if for some miracle your socialist take over be prepared. This country will be brought to its knees.
Personally I don't care either way. It may be time for a revolution to get all the safe space guns free lgqbtsgmd bunch to be shown the door in one form or another.
While we disagree on Trump, I agree with you 100 percent on your comments about the establishment and the Democrat candidates. They have colluded to buy votes through socialist programs using money that this country does not have. I posted a video of Cruz lecturing the U.S. Senate in October over the budget deal that the establishment Republicans made with Obama, which called for huge spending increases for the first three or four years, and a much bigger spending cut 10 years from now. The Republican/Democrat establishment is just trying to kick the day of reckoning into our children's and grand children's future, with total disregard to what that will do to their standard of living and quality of life.
Cruz called the big budget cuts that are always 5 or 10 years in the future a lie that everybody in Congress knows is a lie, but yet large majorities in the House and Senate enthusiastically approved the budget and eliminating the debt ceiling to get past the 2016 elections and through the end of Obama's second term.
I have believed for many years, as you do, that politicians will not make the tough decisions that are necessary to save this country from the total collapse of our economy. It is just not in most people's nature to sacrifice their political careers for the good of the country. We can look at Greece and other democratic countries and see how politicians will respond to severe economic crises that can only be avoided through extreme downsizing of government and cutting entitlement spending to the bone. When politicians are willing support such measures, there is always somebody waiting to run on rolling back cuts and restore things the way that they were.
When polls show that an avowed socialist like Bernie Sanders beating any Republican candidate in a general election, it is a clear sign that our day of reckoning is near. I thought a criminal indictment would drive Hillary Clinton from the race, but I now believe that tens of millions of people would vote for her even if she finished her campaign from a jail cell. Democrats would rally around her and compare the most corrupt female politician in American history to Nelson Mandela.
Wise men predicted what is happening two hundred years or more that this time would come. Americans have learned that politicians can borrow money and hand it out like candy in exchange for votes. Most young Americans are too poorly educated about American and world history to understand that politicians are leading us down the road to disaster. When that disaster occurs, those Americans will be the first to blame capitalism and demand demand even more socialism from the politicians.
Nikita Khrushchev, Karl Marx, Vladimir Lenin, Joseph Stalin, Leonid Brezhnev, and the rest of the dead liberal revolutionaries are probably enjoying this election cycle from Down Under (way below Australia) as much as TheRealVille.