Bluegrassrivals

The Wisconsin GOP Primary is coming up on April 5. Let's hear your predictions.

I predict a surprisingly easy win for Ted Cruz. Trump unwittingly agreed to an interview with a popular Wisconsin talk show host today who is a fellow member of the #NeverTrump club. The guy asked Trump most of the questions that I would ask him if I had the opportunity. He also asked him if he stood by his attacks on Gov. Scott Walker's record in the state. It was a brutal interview. I thoroughly enjoyed it.

Reportedly John Kasich has canceled future radio ads in the state, which should add to Cruz's winning margin in the state. Kasich is probably running short of cash and wants to focus on winning Pennsylvania, where he is polling much better. If Kasich can't win Pennsylvania, then he will enter the convention Ohio being his only win.

Assuming Scott Walker endorses Ted Cruz tomorrow morning as expected:

Cruz 45%
Trump 35%
Kasich 15%

If Trump pulls out of Wisconsin early to shore up support in Pennsylvania, the Wisconsin primary could get ugly.

Trump made a YUGE mistake agreeing to an interview with Charlie Sykes. His staff really let him down.

Listen To What Happens When Donald Trump Gets Asked Real Questions By A Media Interviewer

I think it's a toss up. Trump has rally's scheduled this week, Sen. Ron Johnson may be joining him from what I read earlier, but not confirmed, so who knows. Should be a good one either way.

Not sure at this point. Cruz seems to have momentum there, but I never thought Cruz would take Maine which goes to show that anything could happen. Honestly, it's a toss up.

I think Cruz wins it but Trump does better than expected. This would have been a Marco state I would imagine. Surprised kasich didn't hit it harder but then again kasich only play is to work the big delegate states to screw both Trump and cruz. It embarrassing listening to kasich.
I agree with hoots numbers. It would be a shock if Trump pulled it off.

RunItUpTheGut Wrote:I think Cruz wins it but Trump does better than expected. This would have been a Marco state I would imagine. Surprised kasich didn't hit it harder but then again kasich only play is to work the big delegate states to screw both Trump and cruz. It embarrassing listening to kasich.
I agree with hoots numbers. It would be a shock if Trump pulled it off.

Trump is ahead in the Real Clear Politics Average of recent polls. It appears that the two are within the margin of error. If he loses, he won't do better than expected, IMO.

Trump wall is falling. :Cheerlead

I feel pretty good about my Wisconsin prediction. Trump fatigue is taking its toll on his campaign. A 10 point margin Cruz may be on the pessimistic side if Trump does not do something right soon.

Unless one of Trump's smears against Cruz hits pay dirt, Trump will be trounced on Tuesday. He may finish behind Kasich.

The Marquette poll, which was released today shows, Cruz with a 10 percent lead over Trump. After the past couple of very bad days on the campaign trail for Trump, my guess is that Cruz is probably up by at least 15 points by now. Trump should probably cut his losses, hop on his jet, and try to forget that he ever landed in Wisconsin. If he keeps campaigning like he has in the past two days, he could end up in single digits. :lmao:

Every poll I've seen has cruz up around 10 points so it will be better than expected if Trump wins or keeps it close IMO

I'm also curious as to how many of these 5 women cruz has had relations with. I think it's at least one.
I counderstand care less and it doesn't matter one bit, but when your running as the most conservative candidate with a religious platform that can destroy you.

RunItUpTheGut Wrote:I'm also curious as to how many of these 5 women cruz has had relations with. I think it's at least one.
I counderstand care less and it doesn't matter one bit, but when your running as the most conservative candidate with a religious platform that can destroy you.

What, you don't believe that Trump's campaigning on a conservative religious platform?

The main difference between Cruz and Trump is that Cruz is not just running as a conservative, he is a conservative. When he is asked questions, he does not have to think to himself, "How would a conservative answer this question?"

A new poll from Fox Business News was just released.

Cruz 42%
Trump 32%
Kasich 19%

Cruz has a shot at breaking 50%. Trump was in DC today meeting with GOP leaders. Conservative talk radio is hammering Trump in Wisconsin.

As for so-called "Cruz sex scandal," I believe that if either Rubio or Trump had proof, they already would have leaked it. This just smells like another Trump dishonest smear to me.

If Cruz did have an affair and proof emerges, it will not change my vote. Nothing will be changing my mind about Trump's unsuitability for the Oval Office. I will never vote for a Democrat for president and both Kasich and Trump would be better fits in that party than they are in the GOP.

Sarah Palin's made a bad career choice when she hitched her wagon to Donald Trump. Trump's decision to attack a very popular governor in his home state during a presidential campaign ranks as one of the most foolish things that he has done. I am guessing that Palin understands politics well enough to realize her political career has taken a huge hit.

Quote:Cruz, Walker Embrace As Wisconsin Crowd Goes Silent for Palin

A roomful of Wisconsin Republican Party faithful gave Ted Cruz a standing ovation on Friday night before offering Donald Trump surrogate Sarah Palin a chilly welcome.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, appearing with Cruz on stage for the first time since announcing his endorsement on Tuesday, embraced the Texas senator at the GOP's Milwaukee County Fish Fry. Cruz now holds a double-digit lead over Trump in Wisconsin ahead of the state's primary on Tuesday.

"My reasons are all about who I'm for, not about who I'm against," said Walker to his home state crowd, taking a veiled shot at Republican front-runner Trump. "I think that's important in Wisconsin — we like to be for something, not against something."

I didn't pay too much attention when Palin announced her support for Trump, but started to when she started becoming another attack dog for him and bashing Cruz over and over. Honestly, I think that ended up hurting Trump more than it helped him considering that Cruz won in Alaska. Go back and see some of Palin's older Facebook posts and some of her writings and you will see that she's all about Ted Cruz. It just goes to show you that she is not one to be trusted.

Sarah Palin isn't the only one to do this either. I am very disappointed in several politicians, analysts, and conservative media outlets on all sides of the issues in how they have handled this primary.

WideRight05 Wrote:I didn't pay too much attention when Palin announced her support for Trump, but started to when she started becoming another attack dog for him and bashing Cruz over and over. Honestly, I think that ended up hurting Trump more than it helped him considering that Cruz won in Alaska. Go back and see some of Palin's older Facebook posts and some of her writings and you will see that she's all about Ted Cruz. It just goes to show you that she is not one to be trusted.

Sarah Palin isn't the only one to do this either. I am very disappointed in several politicians, analysts, and conservative media outlets on all sides of the issues in how they have handled this primary.

Well, I think you need to understand that nobody was seriously expecting any of the candidates to state the issues so clearly, that is to say apart from the fog of political correctness. Republicans have been totally neutered, whipped by Dems who only have to threaten to make some charge of racism, or the imaginary war on women, or without any concern about the environment, you know, the dirty air and water conservatives, or as being unsympathetic to the poor little children whose parents crashed the border, or any of the other pseudo liberal concerns, and they run for the hills scared to death.

Up steps Trump and all of a sudden sanity is once again in vogue. But you're right. There were some on-air personalities who switched when the straight talk started, it was like the hope of rain had returned to the parched desert. And forgive me, but as I have pointed out, Cruz's policy intentions have become more and more Trump like over time.

I know Cruz said he would carpet bomb ISIS into oblivion, which is not a reasonable or responsible position BTW, but there is a bit more there there. I believe Cruz would be nearly or equally as reluctant to commit ground troops in the Middle East as Obama has been. He's got a little isolationist streak running through him.

It has been another good day in Wisconsin and elsewhere for Ted Cruz. He picked up another endorsement, this one from Congressman Reid Ribble, Republican representing Wisconsin's 8th Congressional District. Cruz is picking up key endorsements at a pretty fast rate for somebody who Trump claims nobody likes.

Cruz was the only candidate that personally showed up to address the attendees of North Dakota's GOP Convention. North Dakota is selecting 25 delegates that will not be pledged to any candidate at the national convention. Cruz also sent Carly Fiorina to the convention. Trump declined to attend and sent Ben Carson. Kasich sent retired New Hampshire Congressman Gordon Humphries to North Dakota to represent him.

Cruz supporters won all 6 of the delegates for two Colorado Congressional Districts today. Cruz has a campaign organization in Colorado and will be speaking at the state convention on April 9. Trump has no formal organization in Colorado but is leaning toward speaking at the convention. Kasich is sending former NH Governor John Sununu to speak for him at the convention.

Cruz is working hard to win every delegate, and asking for delegates' support in person in states like Colorado and North Dakota will make a big difference. Some things should not be delegated to the hired help.

I was glad to see Donald Trump provided some details for his plan to fix this country's problems today. nicker:

Quote:Wisconsin has suffered a great loss of jobs and trade, but if I win, all of the bad things happening in the U.S. will be rapidly reversed!

@realDonaldTrump

Another bad day for Trump. Reports say that 20 of the 25 delegates selected at the North Dakota state convention are from Cruz's slate. Trump may have gotten one selected. It sounds like Cruz and Fiorina's trip to North Dakota paid off. If the numbers are correct, Cruz gained 25 delegates between the Colorado and North Dakota conventions. Cruz seems to be managing his campaign organization much better than Trump is.

Trump said this morning that he is no longer bound by the agreement that he signed in which he pledged to support the GOP nominee in exchange for the party providing voter data to him. Kasich and Cruz have said that Trump's antics are making it harder for them to support him but neither stated that they will not do so.

Trump is also threatening again to run as an independent if the GOP does not treat him "fairly." Do Trump's followers ever get tired of his incessant whining and empty threats?

Chris Wallace pressed Trump for proof that Cruz was behind the ad featuring a nude picture of Melania Trump. He finally said that his evidence is "common sense." In other words, he ridiculed Heidi Cruz's looks because he suspected that Ted Cruz was behind the Melania ad, but had no evidence that was the case. Still, no apology to Heidi Cruz from Trump and his negative ratings among women continue to climb.

Trump also whined today that Kasich should get out of the race because he cannot win and is taking votes away from Trump. Polls indicate that if Kasich exited the race, about two-thirds of his support would break to Cruz, not Trump. Trump's problem is that his support is not growing but both Cruz and Kasich's support has increased since Rubio dropped out.

Hoot Gibson Wrote:It has been another good day in Wisconsin and elsewhere for Ted Cruz. He picked up another endorsement, this one from Congressman Reid Ribble, Republican representing Wisconsin's 8th Congressional District. Cruz is picking up key endorsements at a pretty fast rate for somebody who Trump claims nobody likes.

Cruz was the only candidate that personally showed up to address the attendees of North Dakota's GOP Convention. North Dakota is selecting 25 delegates that will not be pledged to any candidate at the national convention. Cruz also sent Carly Fiorina to the convention. Trump declined to attend and sent Ben Carson. Kasich sent retired New Hampshire Congressman Gordon Humphries to North Dakota to represent him.

Cruz supporters won all 6 of the delegates for two Colorado Congressional Districts today. Cruz has a campaign organization in Colorado and will be speaking at the state convention on April 9. Trump has no formal organization in Colorado but is leaning toward speaking at the convention. Kasich is sending former NH Governor John Sununu to speak for him at the convention.

Cruz is working hard to win every delegate, and asking for delegates' support in person in states like Colorado and North Dakota will make a big difference. Some things should not be delegated to the hired help.

I was glad to see Donald Trump provided some details for his plan to fix this country's problems today. nicker:

As you probably know, establishment Republicans are getting behind Cruz to stop Trump from getting the required number of delegates to prevent a contested convention. Then they will dump Cruz and install their own candidate who no one voted for and who will lose to Hillary. I'm having a hard time believing you don't realize Cruz has zero % chance of being the next President.

jetpilot Wrote:As you probably know, establishment Republicans are getting behind Cruz to stop Trump from getting the required number of delegates to prevent a contested convention. Then they will dump Cruz and install their own candidate who no one voted for and who will lose to Hillary. I'm having a hard time believing you don't realize Cruz has zero % chance of being the next President.

That's not why some establishment Republicans are getting behind Cruz. The convention just does not work that way. Delegates decide the rules of the convention and Cruz, unlike Trump, has been very busy getting his own delegates named to the convention.

Delegates could theoretically change the rules to anything they want, but unlike the Democrat Party, there is no large number of super delegates hand picked by the Republican establishment to control the process. For example, Romney's delegates were responsible for the rule that requires a candidate to win the majority of delegates in at least eight states or territories to be named a nominee. The purpose of the rule was to prevent Ron Paul from disrupting the convention with a small number of delegates when Romney ran for a second term.

Now, it is debatable whether the delegates could simply decide to vote for a candidate whose name has not been placed into nomination, but that is a very unlikely scenario as well because of the number of delegates who will be there supporting Trump and Cruz.

I have a hard time believing that you actually believe Trump's claim that Cruz has zero chance of being the nominee. If Trump does not win on the first ballot, and that is a very real possibility, I think Trump will have very little chance of winning on any subsequent ballot. Why? Because he has done a very poor job organizing his campaign and still does not understand the rules. Cruz is one of the top lawyers in the country and his team has been working hard at state conventions getting delegates named who will support him if there is no first ballot winner. To Trump, that is "stealing" delegates but for people familiar with political conventions, that is just part of the selection process.

That is why Trump is whining so much and calling Cruz a cheater. He is trying to play a game that he does not understand and expects to be able to change the rules in the middle of the game. Trump should have been busy learning the rules of the game instead of wasting time and damaging his own campaign by insulting people on Twitter. (Trump's failure to grasp the rules resulted in him leaving the campaign trail in Wisconsin to meet with Reince Priebus in DC. The establishment had to explain the convention rules and the fact that every state has its own rules for selecting delegates.)

I think Trump has about a 50/50 chance of winning the nomination and maybe a 10 percent chance of becoming president and that assumes that he is learning from his endless string of blunders.

Polls show Cruz has a better chance of winning in November than Trump if he is the nominee but he probably has only a 25-30% chance of winning the nomination. If neither Trump nor Cruz wins the nomination after the third ballot, then the delegates may start seriously discussing alternatives, which at that point would not be an unreasonable thing to do.

Delegates are real people, most with strong preferences and opinions. They are not going to abandon their favorite candidate just because Reince Priebus or some other RINO says they should do so after one ballot. Nobody should feel cheated if they cannot convince a majority of delegates to support them after three or four rounds of voting.

I think that if Trump fails to win a majority of delegates before the convention, Cruz has an excellent chance of winning the nomination. Cruz has won a lot of support and respect during this campaign. Republican incumbents would rather lose with Cruz than than with Trump because Cruz will be less likely to drag them down with him the way that a blundering Trump might. Cruz is not prone to make unforced errors.

I have seen Cruz go toe to toe with Harry Reid, Mitch McConnell, Dianne Feinstein and other members of the establishment in the U.S. Senate and it was a thing of beauty. I have watched Trump fold like a cheap lawn chair when matched against media lightweight Chris Matthews. Anybody who thinks Trump would be a more formidable opponent for Hillary than Cruz has not watched Cruz much.

There are some very good reasons why Trump refuses to debate Cruz head to head. Hillary is not in the same league as a debater as Cruz, but she will destroy Trump in a head to head debate, just as Cruz would do. Democrats are salivating over the prospect of running against Trump. A know-nothing man who loves to insult women is just the type of candidate Hillary needs to divert attention away from her crimes and incompetence.

jetpilot Wrote:http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/04/...st-hurrah/

This is an absolutely best case scenario for Trump and is not realistic, IMO. Cruz will concede if and when Trump locks up the nomination. Cruz has the momentum and Trump is tripping over his own feet. If both Trump and Cruz fall short of winning a majority of delegates before the convention, there will be a second ballot at the convention and that will be very bad news for Trump. The "elites" will not decide the nomination. The delegates will. Cruz has been working diligently behind the scenes to win delegates for the second ballot.

The assertion that Cruz will be a sore loser if he remains in the race before Trump wins a majority of the available delegates is comical. The game ends when somebody collects a majority and not before. Those are the rules and if Trump does not like it, then he is the one who will look like a sore loser.

Have you ever seen a presidential candidate whine more than Trump? I thought Kerry was bad, but he was all class compared to Trump.

As its been from the beginning, if Trump has the most delegates (which will happen) and the majority of the vote (which will happen) and the repubs screw him out of the nomination, I will not vote in November. If Cruz had the most of both, he will get my vote, but its not going to happen.

RunItUpTheGut Wrote:As its been from the beginning, if Trump has the most delegates (which will happen) and the majority of the vote (which will happen) and the repubs screw him out of the nomination, I will not vote in November. If Cruz had the most of both, he will get my vote, but its not going to happen.

Let's just see what happens in Wisconsin. I doubt there is anything like a 10 point margin in favor of Cruz. Almost all the delegates are bound.

My belief this entire time has been that Kasich has stayed in the race for one main reason (other than the obvious) and that is to try and stop Trump from getting all of NY's delegates. They know Cruz would get blown out in NY by a 70-30 margin so Kasich was left in for that one reason in the beginning, same as California. Those two state will not vote for Cruz. They just wont. If Trump secure 50% in NY, I think the establishment will see the writing on the wall and give up all hope.
Like you TRT, lets see how Wisconsin plays out first. Since some believe polls are really important, the last couple ive seen today have went from Cruz up by 10 to within the margin of error. Cruz is running out of state. Just like the article Jetpilot posted, its impossible for Cruz to get to 1237 and it baffles me that he would rather see a Kasich or other RINO in more that Trump.
Ive been hearing a lot about the 8 state rule. Lets see if that holds. It wont.

RunItUpTheGut Wrote:As its been from the beginning, if Trump has the most delegates (which will happen) and the majority of the vote (which will happen) and the repubs screw him out of the nomination, I will not vote in November. If Cruz had the most of both, he will get my vote, but its not going to happen.

It is not possible for Trump to get screwed out of the nomination if he has a majority of the delegates when he arrives in Cleveland. The majority of popular votes does not matter and it has never mattered in the past. If Trump has 1,236 delegates when he arrives at the convention, then he will need to keep those delegates's support on the second ballot and find at least one more delegate to vote for him to have a majority and win the nomination. Those are the rules.

Convention rules were good enough for Lincoln and they should be good enough for Trump and his supporters. If you think the rules that were in effect when Cruz and Trump entered the campaign for president should determine the winner, then you agree with Ted Cruz. If you think the rules should be changed so that Trump does not need to receive a majority of delegate votes to win the nomination, then I don't believe that is going to happen. The delegates who support Cruz and other candidates will not allow Trump to steal the nomination through a change in the rules.

RunItUpTheGut Wrote:My belief this entire time has been that Kasich has stayed in the race for one main reason (other than the obvious) and that is to try and stop Trump from getting all of NY's delegates. They know Cruz would get blown out in NY by a 70-30 margin so Kasich was left in for that one reason in the beginning, same as California. Those two state will not vote for Cruz. They just wont. If Trump secure 50% in NY, I think the establishment will see the writing on the wall and give up all hope.
Like you TRT, lets see how Wisconsin plays out first. Since some believe polls are really important, the last couple ive seen today have went from Cruz up by 10 to within the margin of error. Cruz is running out of state. Just like the article Jetpilot posted, its impossible for Cruz to get to 1237 and it baffles me that he would rather see a Kasich or other RINO in more that Trump.
Ive been hearing a lot about the 8 state rule. Lets see if that holds. It wont.

I know that you don't believe in polls, but Cruz had a slight lead in the latest California poll. Cruz will do very well in California. I don't believe Trump would win 70 percent of the New York vote, with or without Kasich in the race. Current polls show Trump above 50 percent in New York but Cruz has two weeks to focus his campaign on that state. It is very unlikely that Trump can win a majority of NY delegates.

BTW, Trump's attempt to portray Cruz as an establishment candidate is not fooling anybody who follows politics closely. The establishment Republicans hate pulling for Cruz, but he is a genuine Republican and the only realistic alternative to Trump, the fake Republican.

RunItUpTheGut Wrote:As its been from the beginning, if Trump has the most delegates (which will happen) and the majority of the vote (which will happen) and the repubs screw him out of the nomination, I will not vote in November. If Cruz had the most of both, he will get my vote, but its not going to happen.

Same here Gut. And there are many millions just like us. I want Trump but would vote for Cruz. Any shenanigans by the incompetent and corrupt Republican establishment and not only will I not vote, I will change my registration from Republican to Independent.

Hoot Gibson Wrote:This is an absolutely best case scenario for Trump and is not realistic, IMO. Cruz will concede if and when Trump locks up the nomination. Cruz has the momentum and Trump is tripping over his own feet. If both Trump and Cruz fall short of winning a majority of delegates before the convention, there will be a second ballot at the convention and that will be very bad news for Trump. The "elites" will not decide the nomination. The delegates will. Cruz has been working diligently behind the scenes to win delegates for the second ballot.

The assertion that Cruz will be a sore loser if he remains in the race before Trump wins a majority of the available delegates is comical. The game ends when somebody collects a majority and not before. Those are the rules and if Trump does not like it, then he is the one who will look like a sore loser.

Have you ever seen a presidential candidate whine more than Trump? I thought Kerry was bad, but he was all class compared to Trump.

Hoot, you have a bright future as a speech writer for Obama or Hillary.

Hoot Gibson Wrote:It is not possible for Trump to get screwed out of the nomination if he has a majority of the delegates when he arrives in Cleveland. The majority of popular votes does not matter and it has never mattered in the past. If Trump has 1,236 delegates when he arrives at the convention, then he will need to keep those delegates's support on the second ballot and find at least one more delegate to vote for him to have a majority and win the nomination. Those are the rules.

Convention rules were good enough for Lincoln and they should be good enough for Trump and his supporters. If you think the rules that were in effect when Cruz and Trump entered the campaign for president should determine the winner, then you agree with Ted Cruz. If you think the rules should be changed so that Trump does not need to receive a majority of delegate votes to win the nomination, then I don't believe that is going to happen. The delegates who support Cruz and other candidates will not allow Trump to steal the nomination through a change in the rules.

Rules set up by "we" the politicians, by politicians, and for politicians, which has gotten us into the mess were in today.
The death of the two part system cannot come quick enough.
There should be liberals, democrats, moderates and conservatives.

RunItUpTheGut Wrote:Rules set up by "we" the politicians, by politicians, and for politicians, which has gotten us into the mess were in today.
The death of the two part system cannot come quick enough.
There should be liberals, democrats, moderates and conservatives.

Trump and his fans can't have it both ways. Trump has whined the entire campaign about the possibility that the GOP establishment would change the rules to cheat him out of the nomination. now that it looks like he may fail to win the majority, he and his fans are whining about the prospect that if the rules are not changed in his favor, he will lose.

This is like realizing your team is going to lose a game and arguing that you should be given the win because you led all the major categories of stats. Those arguments don't work in the sports world and they won't work in the political world either.

Hoot Gibson Wrote:Trump and his fans can't have it both ways. Trump has whined the entire campaign about the possibility that the GOP establishment would change the rules to cheat him out of the nomination. now that it looks like he may fail to win the majority, he and his fans are whining about the prospect that if the rules are not changed in his favor, he will lose.

This is like realizing your team is going to lose a game and arguing that you should be given the win because you led all the major categories of stats. Those arguments don't work in the sports world and they won't work in the political world either.

Too funny. 99.9% of the whining is coming from supporters of candidates who have zillions fewer votes than Trump and a ton fewer delegates.