It has become seemingly easy for everyone to predict region and district winners just based off the favorites around the state. This year, I think there are a few regions around the state that have the possibility of a team coming from nowhere and getting an upset. The 15th is loaded with great pitchers and JC and Paintsville seem to be the favorites this year. South Laurel will most likely run through their region. McCracken and Paducah Tilghman seem to have the 1st region, Union will most likely repeat in the 2nd, Daviess, Grayson, and Muhlenburg all have a shot in 3rd, South Warren and Bowling Green in the 4th, ETOWN in the 5th, North Bullit in the 6th, St. X, Trinity and Male in the 7th, Collins and Simon Kenton in the 8th, Conner and Highlands in the 9th, Scott and Bourbon and Harrison in the 10th, Tates Creek and Madison Central in the 11th, West Jessamine and Southwestern in the 12th, Hazard, LCC and Knott in the 14th, and Boyd in the 16th. Obviously, I already mentioned the other regions earlier, but these would most likely be the favorites and 90% of the time in high school one of those would win. However, I am more interested in the teams this year that may be overlooked and not traditionally a power, that has a shot to make a huge upset? This is a year where several regions have the potential to be represented by one of those schools. For example, Prestonsburg has been making strides to improve that program and could possibly knock someone off? Also, in the 11th, Sayre and Madison Southern have new coaching staffs. Sayre has a lot of talent to work with, probably one of their most talented teams. Coach Combs has started with Madison Southern as well and they're always considered a "gimme" game throughout the region. They have a really good ace and a good enough coaching staff where they could shock a few people. The 6th region is usually very wide open and there are several team that could make some noise. I would really like to know some of the ones I haven't mentioned?
I think there are a few that jump out to me.....
Collins and Simon Kenton both lost a lot to graduation and I think it could open up a possibility for Anderson to make a run. They were young and should be a much improved team by the time region comes around.
Obviously, Paintsville and JC top out as the favorites this year in the 15th, but Prestonsburg as well as Belfry were both heavy with under classmen last year. Prestonsburg actually had 12 freshman and an 8th grader last year. That could be a good equation this year come post season for Prestonsburg to knock off somebody. The only issue with them will be their schedule. I haven't looked at for this year, but they only played one team(GRC) not considered "eastern ky" last season. That is not how you win championships. JC's schedule this year is a prime example of what a schedule should look like for a program wanting to make a run at Whitaker Park. It is actually the best and toughest schedule I've ever seen an eastern ky school have. When Jody Hamilton was at Boyd they had a few good schedules, but it isn't anything like JC has this year.
The 16th is one of the most interesting to me. Ashland was the runner-up but graduated 10+ seniors last year, and I don't see them being a factor. Obviously, Boyd is the defending champ and has the best player in eastern ky in Barnwell. They did lose two pitchers to graduation though. What make this region so interesting is the potential of West Carter and Rowan. Both had 20 win seasons last year, but Rowan graduated quite a few seniors. However, West Carter was very young, including several freshman and a couple 8th graders. Rowan and West Carter also have the two best pitching prospects in the region in Ben Jordan and Cameron Planck. Either of these two kids could shut down any team in the 16th. The only question is which one will have the other variables to see it through. My money is with west Carter, and I think they make a huge upset over Boyd this year.
The 14th should come down to Hazard or Knott, with Hazard being a favorite. Estill lost too much and shouldn't factor into it and the same for Powell. However, Powell does still have several players and they'll compete. LCC lost a lot as well, but Bryan Dean is better than anyone in the state at winning with less talent. My team that I think will cause an upset in the 14th is PCC. They were embarrassed in the region tournament by estill county 12-1, but won 17 games with basically a middle school team. They had 10+ 7th and 8th graders last year who got some great experience, and add that to a few upper-classman that can lead this team, and it creates a perfect storm for them to upset somebody. I think Hazard still wins but I think their playing PCC in the finals.
The two Laurel County teams are going to be favored in the 13th and rightfully so. They're a couple teams that have a shot but if were talking about teams surprising some people I think it's Corbin and Knox. Obviously, Corbin did it last year making it as far as they did and barely being a .500 team. Both of them had very young teams whose teams ended their seasons to the hands of south Laurel, and both teams combined only lost by three total runs. I think Corbin has a new coach and sometimes during that first year they can win some unexpected games because the opponents aren't familiar with the new coach. That experience Corbin got will definitely set the stage for them to try and upset south again, but I'm not so sure the Neal kid will let that ever happen.
In baseball, anyone can upset anyone on any given day. All it takes is one guy on the mound having an outstanding day or a couple of kids having an off day at the plate. What separates teams is over a week period or 3 day stretch.
Teams are so young anymore. A hot freshman, a hard throwing 8th grader, or a 3/5 Sophomore can get you buy! But I have to say, consistency and experience works best for you at the State level!!!!
108 Stitches Wrote:Teams are so young anymore. A hot freshman, a hard throwing 8th grader, or a 3/5 Sophomore can get you buy! But I have to say, consistency and experience works best for you at the State level!!!!
That can be true on both sides. When I first came back to ky and began writing a column, one of the best games I watched that year was while I was visiting a close friend of mine in Louisa(Coach Keeton)because it had been thirty years since I had seen him. I was invited to the game, and he said be prepared because were playing a really great team and we have an 8th grader on the mound. Of course, none of that mattered, but I was able to see 8th grader win a one-run ball game against a top 20 team(Ryle) and almost completely shutting the down. I had never seen a middle schooler completely shutdown a varsity roster like that, and Ryle had seven guys off that team go on to college to play. Chandler was also very blessed to not only have a great coach, but he also had upperclassmen that helped him along as well, which is why they had the success they did the following year. I'm not confident that if you go by talent that Lawrence was the second best team in the state, but they did have 10-11 players by the end of the year that were convinced they were. Just comparing them against PRP, they had one solid D1 recruit that was a freshman. Of course, the catcher originally went to Louisville, but as a preferred walk-on and ended up leaving after a year and a half. I think he could have went D1 at a lower level and really been effective though. The rest of that team were low level NAIA players at best. PRP not only had a future major leaguer, but several D1 athletes that had great careers, and their subs even went on to play at the college level. Every pitcher they had were mid to upper 80's and they had a few in the 90's. The only pitcher Lawrence had with that much pop was the shortstop that didn't pitch a whole lot. I even think he walked in the first two runs during the championship. At that time Shepherd was still low to mid 80's. It amazes me that they only lost by a few runs. On paper, they should have been run-ruled. That is why baseball is so interesting. You can take a team with 8 D1 players and put them up against a team with zero and it isn't clear who will win. Drive, maturity, selflessness, fundamentals, hating to lose, and a gameplan can beat a team full of talent on any day of the week. That is why coaching in baseball is such an intrical part of winning. With all the changes and having several regions without a clear-cut favorite, should make for an exciting season.
baseball1974 Wrote:I think there are a few that jump out to me.....
Collins and Simon Kenton both lost a lot to graduation and I think it could open up a possibility for Anderson to make a run. They were young and should be a much improved team by the time region comes around.
Obviously, Paintsville and JC top out as the favorites this year in the 15th, but Prestonsburg as well as Belfry were both heavy with under classmen last year. Prestonsburg actually had 12 freshman and an 8th grader last year. That could be a good equation this year come post season for Prestonsburg to knock off somebody. The only issue with them will be their schedule. I haven't looked at for this year, but they only played one team(GRC) not considered "eastern ky" last season. That is not how you win championships. JC's schedule this year is a prime example of what a schedule should look like for a program wanting to make a run at Whitaker Park. It is actually the best and toughest schedule I've ever seen an eastern ky school have. When Jody Hamilton was at Boyd they had a few good schedules, but it isn't anything like JC has this year.
The 16th is one of the most interesting to me. Ashland was the runner-up but graduated 10+ seniors last year, and I don't see them being a factor. Obviously, Boyd is the defending champ and has the best player in eastern ky in Barnwell. They did lose two pitchers to graduation though. What make this region so interesting is the potential of West Carter and Rowan. Both had 20 win seasons last year, but Rowan graduated quite a few seniors. However, West Carter was very young, including several freshman and a couple 8th graders. Rowan and West Carter also have the two best pitching prospects in the region in Ben Jordan and Cameron Planck. Either of these two kids could shut down any team in the 16th. The only question is which one will have the other variables to see it through. My money is with west Carter, and I think they make a huge upset over Boyd this year.
The 14th should come down to Hazard or Knott, with Hazard being a favorite. Estill lost too much and shouldn't factor into it and the same for Powell. However, Powell does still have several players and they'll compete. LCC lost a lot as well, but Bryan Dean is better than anyone in the state at winning with less talent. My team that I think will cause an upset in the 14th is PCC. They were embarrassed in the region tournament by estill county 12-1, but won 17 games with basically a middle school team. They had 10+ 7th and 8th graders last year who got some great experience, and add that to a few upper-classman that can lead this team, and it creates a perfect storm for them to upset somebody. I think Hazard still wins but I think their playing PCC in the finals.
The two Laurel County teams are going to be favored in the 13th and rightfully so. They're a couple teams that have a shot but if were talking about teams surprising some people I think it's Corbin and Knox. Obviously, Corbin did it last year making it as far as they did and barely being a .500 team. Both of them had very young teams whose teams ended their seasons to the hands of south Laurel, and both teams combined only lost by three total runs. I think Corbin has a new coach and sometimes during that first year they can win some unexpected games because the opponents aren't familiar with the new coach. That experience Corbin got will definitely set the stage for them to try and upset south again, but I'm not so sure the Neal kid will let that ever happen.
You do realize that Lawrence County only had TWO seniors....yes, TWO. The bulk of their starting lineup were sophomores. But, it's ok, leave the team that played for the regional finals, beat Paintsville in the districts, off your list of "favorites". :Thumbs:
dawgeers Wrote:You do realize that Lawrence County only had TWO seniors....yes, TWO. The bulk of their starting lineup were sophomores. But, it's ok, leave the team that played for the regional finals, beat Paintsville in the districts, off your list of "favorites". :Thumbs:
Pitching and defense will always win and that is two areas that LC will not be able to keep up. They may have only lost two seniors, but they also lost the only pitcher they had that could beat the top teams. I'm not saying they don't have a shot because they absolutely do. I'm just saying the remaining kids in the lineup and on the mound will have to improve immensely to become a "favorite."
baseball1974 Wrote:Pitching and defense will always win and that is two areas that LC will not be able to keep up. They may have only lost two seniors, but they also lost the only pitcher they had that could beat the top teams. I'm not saying they don't have a shot because they absolutely do. I'm just saying the remaining kids in the lineup and on the mound will have to improve immensely to become a "favorite."
Don't they always find someone who steps up to be that #1? Did anyone know it would be the Wallen kid last year? My point is that they will have a #1. If you think they won't, then you haven't been paying attention the past 20 years.
And the "remaining kids" are good enough to beat anyone. They've done it before. Not sure why you won't give them their credit they deserve. These kids got to the regional finals last year. The regional semi-finals the year before. I get it that JC and Paintsville has a load of talent, but the past two seasons, where were they during the last week of May? JC last year broke through, but year before last got beat in the 1st round of the districts. Paintsville, with all their talent, hasn't done anything. What have they done to earn the top spot? Not slamming them, just pointing out that you seem a bit bias and perhaps angry. That's all.
Seems like everybody forgets lc won 20 games when wallen was not on the mound.
dawg fan Wrote:Seems like everybody forgets lc won 20 games when wallen was not on the mound.
No. That can't be. It's more like the OTHER teams LOST those games he didn't pitch.
nicker: I guess the thing I can't understand is how each year people count out LC because of this or that. I remember the 2011 team was told by many people how Pikeville was too dominant even with Shepherd on the mound. But, I kind of like these naysayers. I think the young LC team feeds off it. I mean they started 5 sophomores last year, yet people want to focus on the two they lost.
I think everyone knows Lawrence always has a shot. I was just referring to the "favorites." Right now, i think there are better teams that fit that role, but it could very well change by the time the seasons over. My only question, who would you start right now against anybody in the regional championship game, and compare them to JC's best or Paintsville's? Thats why i dont have them as a favorite to begin the season.
baseball1974 Wrote:I think everyone knows Lawrence always has a shot. I was just referring to the "favorites." Right now, i think there are better teams that fit that role, but it could very well change by the time the seasons over. My only question, who would you start right now against anybody in the regional championship game, and compare them to JC's best or Paintsville's? Thats why i dont have them as a favorite to begin the season.
Well, LC has a junior that is pretty good. He's only lost 2 or 3 games so far in his career and has pitched against some pretty good talent. He's not been asked to be the #1 yet, but this year he will. Plus they have another couple of guys that didn't even pitch last year because LC didn't need them to. Both throw low 80's with good offspeed as well. One did pitch last year early, against Greenup I believe, and held them to 2 runs over 6 innings. And Greenup is as good, if not better, than 90% of the 15th regional teams.
My prediction is that many will be surprised with this year's LC team, and they shouldn't be because they should be given the credit for what they have done already. These boys have been to the regional semis and finals in back-to-back years, with only losing a few off those teams. The bulk of talent is still there.
I mean your opinion is fine. I just don't agree with it nor do I understand the rationale. Putting JC up there, I do understand. They were young and return most of their innings on the mound. However, Paintsville? Not going out and slamming them, but what have they accomplished? Other than underachieving? They are kind of like Notre Dame. Everyone puts them up there at the top during the preseason rankings just to find out by the end of the year that they are mediocre and never fully achieve their expectations. They are probably the most talented team in the region, including JC and LC. But they never live up to the talent level. Why would I think that's going to change again this year? Also, don't forget that either JC or Paintsville may not even get the opportunity to go to region this year because of the right-hander at Sheldon Clark. He's more than capable of beating either one of them and knocking them out of the district. I'm going to go ahead and say that he beats Paintsville in the 2-3 game this year.
This thread was ultimately wanting to know the teams in different regions that were not one of the favorites that could possibly upset someone. I think Lawrence falls into that category. They're not the favorite, they don't have a shutdown pitcher(at this point), and most of the region is projecting them to finish in the middle of the pack. They have been to the finals recently and have done well in the post season, but this is one of the first years LC doesn't have a #1 that everyone knows could beat anyone in the region when they're on the mound. The lineup, like you said, will be mostly the same, but the big thing you need to win in high school is pitching and defense. LC was shaky on defense and now they are needing someone to step up and lead them on the mound. They may have that and by the end of the year they could be the team to beat, but with so many question marks, I don't think anyone can see them being one of the top teams. Johnson Central will be impressive and will no doubt be the favorite. They're also playing one of, if not the, toughest schedule ever put together by a 15th region team, which will make them even tougher at the end of the season. They will be tough to beat regardless of how much the other teams improve.
Lc has cantrell back, Bailey is healthy " beat belfry last year" , the left hander bowens " beat hazard at hazard last year" will be a sophamore this year, salyers will be a senior, barger had a good summer, coverdale is now throwing in the 80s lc has no problem at pitching, I think turner will move to 3rd, keesee at ss, cyrus, at 2nd, coverdale at 1st that's a pretty good infied, lambert in center field, bailey in left, and cantrell in right, miller behind the plat, that's a lot good bats in a line up. I think paintsville will be good but nothing lc has not seen before. This is the best team lc has had since shephard graduated.
dawg fan Wrote:Lc has cantrell back, Bailey is healthy " beat belfry last year" , the left hander bowens " beat hazard at hazard last year" will be a sophamore this year, salyers will be a senior, barger had a good summer, coverdale is now throwing in the 80s lc has no problem at pitching, I think turner will move to 3rd, keesee at ss, cyrus, at 2nd, coverdale at 1st that's a pretty good infied, lambert in center field, bailey in left, and cantrell in right, miller behind the plat, that's a lot good bats in a line up. I think paintsville will be good but nothing lc has not seen before. This is the best team lc has had since shephard graduated.
I will make this claim. It will be a better overall team than the 2011 team. The one thing this team may lack is that 2011 team was stocked with seniors who were all leaders in their own way. Will this 2015 LC team have that type of locker room? That will be something that will be answered during the season. Also, the offense for the 2015 LC team is light years ahead of the 2011 team. Shepherd....stud.....Banks....stud....after that, you were left with a lot of average to below-average high school hitters. The lineup 1-9 for the 2015 LC team is better. I can't wait. Hope I get the chance to swing by and watch a few games. Work schedule kind of prevents a lot of watching in the Spring.
Your right there lc has 2 seniors that will play everday in cantrell and lambert. Turner, keesee, coverdale, bailey, miller, barger, nick, all jr. Bowens, soph. And cyrus a freshman. Cantrell can be pretty vocal at times but the rest of those boy are pretty low key.
There is still no way you can logically say LC is a "favorite." That offense finished fifth last year in runs scored in the region. They may improve enough by the end of the year to say they are one of the teams to beat, but going into it their pitching and defense puts them at a disadvantage to other teams. Paintsville still has question marks a well but their potential on the mound sets them apart from LC, and Johnson Central is obviously the overwhelming favorite.
baseball1974 Wrote:There is still no way you can logically say LC is a "favorite." That offense finished fifth last year in runs scored in the region. They may improve enough by the end of the year to say they are one of the teams to beat, but going into it their pitching and defense puts them at a disadvantage to other teams. Paintsville still has question marks a well but their potential on the mound sets them apart from LC, and Johnson Central is obviously the overwhelming favorite.
JC is the favorite. Hands down. Will not argue that point. But Paintsville? Keep talking "potential" all you want, but the fact is that when it mattered, on their home field, LC beat their #1 and shut them out. Also, the year before, LC beat their #1 and #2. So, this offense that you describe as inadequate, has beaten Paintsville's best pitchers.
Hey, you can have your opinion. That's fine. But it's funny how you question mine when I say that LC is ahead of Paintsville. You keep throwing up Paintsville's "potential", but when will they achieve to that potential? It hasn't happened yet. Why should I think it will this year? Maybe it will. Maybe they will break through. Or, just maybe, the past 2 seasons is just who they are? And Belfry, well LC beat their #1. They have lost to Belfry a total of ONE TIME since joining the 15th region in 2006. Prestonsburg? LC has lost to them just twice since joining the 15th region, and 10 run ruled them last year with LC's "inadequate offense" (as you describe it).
I guess another question is when are you going to look past that potential? You throw up numbers, like LC's offensive stats. First off, judging and ranking "runs scored" isn't all baseball is about. Sure, scoring more runs than the other team is important. But what about site the runs given up? Wallen didn't pitch every game, yet you claim he was the only pitcher LC had. Why is that? My question...Why are you biased AGAINST LC and in favor of Paintsville?
dawgeers Wrote:JC is the favorite. Hands down. Will not argue that point. But Paintsville? Keep talking "potential" all you want, but the fact is that when it mattered, on their home field, LC beat their #1 and shut them out. Also, the year before, LC beat their #1 and #2. So, this offense that you describe as inadequate, has beaten Paintsville's best pitchers.
Hey, you can have your opinion. That's fine. But it's funny how you question mine when I say that LC is ahead of Paintsville. You keep throwing up Paintsville's "potential", but when will they achieve to that potential? It hasn't happened yet. Why should I think it will this year? Maybe it will. Maybe they will break through. Or, just maybe, the past 2 seasons is just who they are? And Belfry, well LC beat their #1. They have lost to Belfry a total of ONE TIME since joining the 15th region in 2006. Prestonsburg? LC has lost to them just twice since joining the 15th region, and 10 run ruled them last year with LC's "inadequate offense" (as you describe it).
I guess another question is when are you going to look past that potential? You throw up numbers, like LC's offensive stats. First off, judging and ranking "runs scored" isn't all baseball is about. Sure, scoring more runs than the other team is important. But what about site the runs given up? Wallen didn't pitch every game, yet you claim he was the only pitcher LC had. Why is that? My question...Why are you biased AGAINST LC and in favor of Paintsville?
I'm as unbiased as you can get. I shouldn't have mentioned their offense from last year because none of that matters, we're talking about this upcoming year. If LC had a team that was one of the top 2 going into this year then is say so but they're not, at least not going into the season. They may have a better offense than Paintsville, but Paintsville has a pitcher coming back that has the ability to beat anyone in the region, along with the staff they have coming back. Take that and add-in the inconsistency that LC has on defense, and Paintsville is ahead of them. Regardless, this thread isn't about who the favorite is because JC has that.
There are several teams that may not have the talent from top to bottom, but they have a coaching staff that knows how to win. After JC, there are a lot of teams that have the same potential to do similar things. Paintsville has an edge because of their arms, but their other question marks puts them even with everyone else. There is a big drop-off after JC.
East Ridge had a below .500 team last year, but they are very heavy with upperclassmen and they have a very capable coach and they could be a team that can surprise some people.
Prestonsburg was very young last year and finished a few games over .500 and won a district title. Having a good coach and having another year for those young kids to get better, puts them as a team to watch for this year.
Allen Central had a great record last year and scored more runs than anyone in the region. However, their schedule was very weak and they didn't do well against the better teams they played. They were very young as well and it is very possible for them to shock somebody as well.
Belfry is always a team that people are waiting on them to catch their stride. Coach Hagy is a good coach and another year of these returning guys getting better could put them in a good position come tournament time. They finished with the same amount of runs scored as JC last year and had a big win over Prestonsburg and barely lost to a good LC team in the regional tournament. I think if a couple of players improve and they get some leadership from their seniors, then this team could do very well.
Pike Central is a team that everyone should be keeping an eye on. They are coming into another year with Coach Lawson and are building off a district championship over belfry last year. They finished among the top teams in runs scored. They have a big question mark when it comes to pitching, but Coach Lawson has the ability to better prepare his players and outcoach anyone in the region. Just my opinion but I think Lawson is one of, if not the, best coach in eastern KY, and it won't take long for him to establish that same dominance he once had in the region and the entire eastern part of the state. I would not want to play a Chris Lawson coached team in the post season.
Lawrence has been slowly regaining their dominance since Shepherd graduated. They made the finals last year and the semifinals the year before. They seem to always be around and have a shot. LC plays with a lot of heart and confidence, which is a deadly combination during the post season. Everyone around the region is waiting to see what they will be able to do this year on the mound. Fundamentally, LC was not as consistent last year as they normally are, but having another year with them will fix a lot of those issues. I think they will be able to outscore most of their opponents this year. If JC or anyone they play in the district and region this year have an off-night, LC is going to beat them. LC is that type of team that if you don't bring your "A" game against them, they will make you pay for it. For that very reason, I think LC can upset anyone given the right situation, and they may very well improve to a point where teams are trying to upset them. LC could go either way this year, and I wouldn't be surprised by anything they do.
baseball1974 Wrote:I'm as unbiased as you can get. I shouldn't have mentioned their offense from last year because none of that matters, we're talking about this upcoming year. If LC had a team that was one of the top 2 going into this year then is say so but they're not, at least not going into the season. They may have a better offense than Paintsville, but Paintsville has a pitcher coming back that has the ability to beat anyone in the region, along with the staff they have coming back. Take that and add-in the inconsistency that LC has on defense, and Paintsville is ahead of them. Regardless, this thread isn't about who the favorite is because JC has that.
There are several teams that may not have the talent from top to bottom, but they have a coaching staff that knows how to win. After JC, there are a lot of teams that have the same potential to do similar things. Paintsville has an edge because of their arms, but their other question marks puts them even with everyone else. There is a big drop-off after JC.
East Ridge had a below .500 team last year, but they are very heavy with upperclassmen and they have a very capable coach and they could be a team that can surprise some people.
Prestonsburg was very young last year and finished a few games over .500 and won a district title. Having a good coach and having another year for those young kids to get better, puts them as a team to watch for this year.
Allen Central had a great record last year and scored more runs than anyone in the region. However, their schedule was very weak and they didn't do well against the better teams they played. They were very young as well and it is very possible for them to shock somebody as well.
Belfry is always a team that people are waiting on them to catch their stride. Coach Hagy is a good coach and another year of these returning guys getting better could put them in a good position come tournament time. They finished with the same amount of runs scored as JC last year and had a big win over Prestonsburg and barely lost to a good LC team in the regional tournament. I think if a couple of players improve and they get some leadership from their seniors, then this team could do very well.
Pike Central is a team that everyone should be keeping an eye on. They are coming into another year with Coach Lawson and are building off a district championship over belfry last year. They finished among the top teams in runs scored. They have a big question mark when it comes to pitching, but Coach Lawson has the ability to better prepare his players and outcoach anyone in the region. Just my opinion but I think Lawson is one of, if not the, best coach in eastern KY, and it won't take long for him to establish that same dominance he once had in the region and the entire eastern part of the state. I would not want to play a Chris Lawson coached team in the post season.
Lawrence has been slowly regaining their dominance since Shepherd graduated. They made the finals last year and the semifinals the year before. They seem to always be around and have a shot. LC plays with a lot of heart and confidence, which is a deadly combination during the post season. Everyone around the region is waiting to see what they will be able to do this year on the mound. Fundamentally, LC was not as consistent last year as they normally are, but having another year with them will fix a lot of those issues. I think they will be able to outscore most of their opponents this year. If JC or anyone they play in the district and region this year have an off-night, LC is going to beat them. LC is that type of team that if you don't bring your "A" game against them, they will make you pay for it. For that very reason, I think LC can upset anyone given the right situation, and they may very well improve to a point where teams are trying to upset them. LC could go either way this year, and I wouldn't be surprised by anything they do.
You keep bringing up "runs scored" as your major statistic. I went to the scoreboard and done some number crunching. You say that LC's offense was 5th in runs scored. But LC also played only 16 regional games the entire year (counting post-season), which means they played teams like Greenup, Boyd, East Carter, etc. which also means you are less likely to score a lot of runs compared to a Phelps or someone like that.
Now, in just the 15th regional games, LC averaged 7 runs per game. Now if you take just the regular season versus the 15th regional opponents, you get an average of....9 runs per game.
So, I guess my point is that when facing the better 15th region teams, here is what LC put up:
Belfry W 11-4
Paintsville W 11-4
L 5-0 (Rice shutout LC; LC put 6 runs on him in district 2nd time they saw him)
Prestonsburg W 10-0 (against their #1 last year)
And the inadequate defense you are referring to, how many games did you attend to get a good sample of how the defense performed? They made two crucial errors in the regional finals that cost them the game. Other than that, I didn't see many problems defensively in the games I attended. Nothing more than normal high school errors that are made from time to time.
My point being, I put LC up there in the #2 spot simply because I think they are better. They lost one player that was a stud, and one that was kind of a role player. I would bet that 85% of their offensive numbers returned. They also had a freshman start against Hazard last year and shut them down. Hazard would then turn around and make a run in the state tourney. Does LC have a guy who is a fireballer? No, they don't. But Wallen wasn't either. The junior that should be the #1 was throwing low 80's last year and his freshman year (gun at Whitaker Bank Park confirmed that he hit 82 as a freshman). With two years experience, no reason he won't be dominant. The other Junior that pitched sparingly last year was consistently throwing 78-80 (radar gun verified), but LC didn't have to use him that much.
They have the Turner kid who had a great sophomore year offensively and defensively and the Keesee kid who was hitting over .500 until mid-April when he broke his hand....and CONTINUED playing with a broken hand. The Coverdale kid went 4-4 against Pikeville's Hamilton and was very solid offensively.
There is some of my stats and my reasoning. You are entitled to yours, as I am mine. You asked what would make me think LC could upset in the 15th. There it is.
I'm not sure what the Hazard reference is suppose to say about them? Hazard also beat LC in the same series. Not only that but hazard also lost to Allen Central, Prestonsburg, Belfry, Paintsville, Harlan, Clay, and twice to Knox.
You can manipulate stats all you want, and defend your team all you would like, but it is what it is.
baseball1974 Wrote:I'm not sure what the Hazard reference is suppose to say about them? Hazard also beat LC in the same series. Not only that but hazard also lost to Allen Central, Prestonsburg, Belfry, Paintsville, Harlan, Clay, and twice to Knox.
You can manipulate stats all you want, and defend your team all you would like, but it is what it is.
So your rebuttal to my stats on the LC offense against 15th region teams is.....Hazard's losses? And you say you're not bias?
nicker:
Again, when a team averages NINE runs per game against 15th region teams during the regular season, kind of quashes your "lack of offense" claims, doesn't it? That includes 11 against Belfry, 10 against Prestonsburg, and 11 and 6 against Paintsville's pitching staff that you pump up (and deserving, they are good) so much. But, again, LC has offensive problems? What manipulation of stats are you referring to that I'm making?
As for the Hazard claim, who cares? They made a run in the post season, thus they were a good team. If Prestonsburg beat them, then that backs my claim up a bit more because LC mercy ruled P-burg.
Now, your turn. Can't wait for your "stats".
nicker:
It is my understanding that stevie blevins will be working with pitchers this year. He is a teacher at lc now.
Lc had one question mark last year and that was at catcher but another year bigger and stronger I think he will be ok.
dawgeers Wrote:So your rebuttal to my stats on the LC offense against 15th region teams is.....Hazard's losses? And you say you're not bias? nicker:
Again, when a team averages NINE runs per game against 15th region teams during the regular season, kind of quashes your "lack of offense" claims, doesn't it? That includes 11 against Belfry, 10 against Prestonsburg, and 11 and 6 against Paintsville's pitching staff that you pump up (and deserving, they are good) so much. But, again, LC has offensive problems? What manipulation of stats are you referring to that I'm making?
As for the Hazard claim, who cares? They made a run in the post season, thus they were a good team. If Prestonsburg beat them, then that backs my claim up a bit more because LC mercy ruled P-burg.
Now, your turn. Can't wait for your "stats". nicker:
I'm not sure what point your trying to make? There were still four other teams with better offensive output. You actually brought up hazard and I simply pointed out there were a lot of teams from the 15th that beat them. Saying that LC's run scored was low because they played teams like east carter doesn't help this silly argument. East Carter was barely .500 and didn't even make the regional tournament because they got beat by a terrible 11-19 Morgan county team. LC got beat by that same East Carter team. Picking and choosing what games to count in your stats isn't doing your cause any justice. I know it's difficult to face but LC is not one of the top teams going into the season. Like I keep saying, that could change, but not right now. This isn't something that needs to keep going. LC has a few teams in front of them and there's nothing wrong with that. They're still a good team. Good luck to you
dawg fan Wrote:It is my understanding that stevie blevins will be working with pitchers this year. He is a teacher at lc now.
Lc had one question mark last year and that was at catcher but another year bigger and stronger I think he will be ok.
Thats a great pick up for LC and especially their pitchers. He will do great to help that staff. Anyone would be lucky to have him as a pitching coach.
baseball1974 Wrote:I'm not sure what point your trying to make? There were still four other teams with better offensive output. You actually brought up hazard and I simply pointed out there were a lot of teams from the 15th that beat them. Saying that LC's run scored was low because they played teams like east carter doesn't help this silly argument. East Carter was barely .500 and didn't even make the regional tournament because they got beat by a terrible 11-19 Morgan county team. LC got beat by that same East Carter team. Picking and choosing what games to count in your stats isn't doing your cause any justice. I know it's difficult to face but LC is not one of the top teams going into the season. Like I keep saying, that could change, but not right now. This isn't something that needs to keep going. LC has a few teams in front of them and there's nothing wrong with that. They're still a good team. Good luck to you
You are wrong. It is not "silly", and it is important to keep going. I'm pointing out your bias against LC. If any other team, ANY other team, had lost only 2 players from a team that played for a regional championship, you'd have them up there. Instead, you choose to point out only negatives on LC and many positives for the other teams in the region that lost as much or more than LC did.
And I did not pick and choose my stats. East did get beat by Morgan County, upsets happen. Crazy things happen. Remember in 2008, LC had a team that played for a state title. Guess who they lost to that year? Morgan County. If you think that East Carter wouldn't be a top 5 15th region team then I don't know what to tell you. Playing East Carter compared to Shelby Valley, East Ridge, Phelps, and even Pikeville who was horrible last year is a step up. Boyd, Greenup, and Russell is also a step up in competition. When you look at the schedules last year, how many regional games did these other teams who scored more runs than LC play in comparison?
I'm saying that against common 15th regional teams, LC scored an average of 9 runs a game....in the REGION. To me, that's a stat that disproves the "inadequate offense" statement because that will be the pitching they will see come tourney time. These same juniors and seniors this year have played and beaten Pike Central's #1 and Belfry's #1. They have also beaten Paintsville's #1.
I'm simply making my point and siting statistical evidence to show why I believe LC to be #2 behind JC and a serious threat for a regional title. You site "inadequate offense" and "defensive problems" without numbers. That's OPINION, not fact.
But, a person who is as unbiased as you understands that.
nicker:
By the way, I do enjoy reading your posts. And in no way am I trying to have an Internet message board war with you. I'm just providing my opinion with statistical analysis to the conversation. But, like many on this board, when someone from LC does this it is frowned upon. We are just supposed to take what others say as fact, and keep our mouths shut. :dontthink
You can defend them as much as you want. I have no problem with that. The part I have a problem with is when you insinuate the only reason I could have that opinion is because I must have an issue with LC, which is rediculous. The only person I know really well from LC is Randy Keeton and he and I have been friends for 40 years. Before you start to say I'm biased against LC you should do some research of your own and look at some of the posts I've made about LC, especially their baseball program. Probably, my longest post ever on this site was about my experience getting to follow them when Shepherd was an 8th grader and then also his freshman year as a member of the media. There was never a negative thing said. There have been things that have happened that I comment on, but it's the same opinion id have regardless of what team it was. The actual fact of this situation is nobody other than you and a couple others from Louisa have the opinion that LC is the second best team in the region, but not all of Lawrence. I've actually gotten a couple private messages from posters that are LC fans that say the exact opposite of what you do about this team. The main reason I had Paintsville above LC had nothing to do with Paintsville's offense. It was because they have four arms that are better than anyone LC has on staff at this point in the season. There are also several teams that are gaining momentum and the improvements they make in the off season could put them in a position to surprise some people. Good pitching and defense will always win over good hitting. It always has and always will. That is why LC is not a favorite this year. They are a top 5 team for sure, but none of that matters when you have one team that is so much better than everyone else. Regardless, who is the favorite it really doesn't say how it will end up. there have been times when Paintsville had the best team in the region but couldn't make it to the regional tournament. I think overall LC had a better team in 07' but ran into good pitching. LC may have some guys they can develop into pitchers but as of right now they're behind a few.
I guess we will just have to wait until march and find out lc opens with paintsville and has johnson central, belfry, pike central, powell co, shelby valley, and I think cabell midland all in the first 10 games of season.
dawg fan Wrote:I guess we will just have to wait until march and find out lc opens with paintsville and has johnson central, belfry, pike central, powell co, shelby valley, and I think cabell midland all in the first 10 games of season.
I think that's exactly how they need to start their schedule this year. Those teams will be great to see where LC is and what they need to do to get to where they need to be. I have said it many times, the 15th is better overall when Lawrence is one of the top teams. They make everyone more competitive and it creates an environment where whomever is representing the region is battle tested. Without LC in that mix, it allows one or two teams every year that run over everyone. When you have four five teams in a region that are all solid, everyone brings their "A" game every night. Some of the best years in the 15th from top to bottom has been when LC was one of the favorites. Now that they're in a different district it will make it even more intense. Instead of a favorite not making it to the region tournament, you now allow all of them to be there. Imagine what the regional tournament would have been like in 2007 if Paintsville, JC, and LC were all playing in it. I doubt JC would have been able to pitch Fyffe if that would have happened, and I think Paintsville would have won it with that team they had. Overall, JC was probably the third best team that year, but they were able to save Fyffe. That was really one of the first years I got to see the 15th and it was really intriguing to me to see how everything unfolded with the best team in the region not even making it to the tournament and then having a rematch of the district championship in the region finals. I still think maybe if LC would've thrown the senior they had that was rested instead of the 8th grader that they could've won that game. Regardless, I was amazed how poised Shepherd was during that game. Great year of baseball that season.
Looking for an upset in the 15th? Don't overlook Allen Central. They will be looking to replace some offense but their pitching staff is better than what people may think. They had an unexpected coaching change this offseason (still shaking my head on that one) but the potential is there. They started mainly sophomores last year and if the new staff can get the team to come together they could be a dangerous team. As always just the opinion of an outsider looking in. It should be a really good season for the 15th.