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Full Version: This is how the first edition of Litkenhouse sees the top ten in 1a
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1) Mayfield 127.8
2) Holy Cross 106.6
3) Frankfort 103.4
4) Pikeville 102.9
5) Williamsburg 100.9
6) Raceland 95.9
7) Russellville 92.9
8) Hazard 89.4
9) Campbellsville 84.6
10) Beechwood 81.1

So what's your thoughts now. By the way they have 1a Mayfield at #7 in all classes. This is good for the small schools.
mysonis55 Wrote:1) Mayfield 127.8
2) Holy Cross 106.6
3) Frankfort 103.4
4) Pikeville 102.9
5) Williamsburg 100.9
6) Raceland 95.9
7) Russellville 92.9
8) Hazard 89.4
9) Campbellsville 84.6
10) Beechwood 81.1

So what's your thoughts now. By the way they have 1a Mayfield at #7 in all classes. This is good for the small schools.

Does this mean 6A McCracken County is rank #6 in the state...Just curious. :dontthink
Beechwood #10? , Holy Cross #2? Time to lay off the peyote !
Yes. They are ranked 6 by Lit. They are tied for 5 in 6a by ap poll.
I agree that some of this is out of shape but by the end of the season it will be pretty much on point. They use STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE also. Much like I lauded to Top Notch.
Worst. Ratings. Ever.

At this point they are absolutely hysterical and people say they are accurate by season's end but from what I have seen, though they do improve, the Lit ratings are typically by far the most inaccurate of the Computer Ratings.

For my money the Calpreps ratings typically are about the most accurate late in the season... Calpreps at least attempts to put some intelligence into their equation when they start their opening values based off past success, starters returning, College Prospects, and dynasty trends.

Top 20
1.Covington Catholic (2-1) 132.9
2.Bowling Green (3-0) 132.0
3.Manual (2-0) 131.6
4.St. Xavier (2-1) 131.4
5.DeSales (3-0) 131.0
6.McCracken County (3-0) 129.0
7.Mayfield (2-1) 127.8
8.Belfry (2-0) 124.7
9.Male (3-0) 122.9
10.Scott County (3-0) 122.8
11.Bryan Station (1-2) 121.4
12.Pulaski County (2-0) 121.4
13.Trinity (1-2) 120.9
14.Johnson Central (2-0) 118.9
15.Fern Creek (0-1) 118.4
16.Highlands (2-0) 118.4
17.Warren Central (2-1) 118.4
18.Franklin County (2-0) 115.1
19.Lafayette (2-1) 115.0
20.Prestonsburg (2-1) 113.9

Here is the Lit Ratings Top 20 overall.... suffice to say... these are beyond ridiculous. I am sure lots of people would love to agree with these especially where Mayfield and Belfry are ranked, but to think either team right now are better than Trinity or Male is comical at best.
I think the Trinity drop is simply due to playing out of state teams. They don't compute those yet. Once they get into a few in state games it will climb. This is just the first edition, it will get better.
The fact that playing out of state teams throws it out of whack is proof in itself how flawed the Lit Ratings are


Right now I think the Calpreps rating look a lot better:
1A
http://calpreps.com/2014/ratings/Kentucky_division.htm

Overall
http://calpreps.com/2014/ratings/Kentucky_all.htm
I try to use both and also the ap polls in figuring out where everyone stands. It's just a tool. It does help.
Cal has it about spot on. I have to be honest here, Williamsburg has my attention, but so does Pikeville. I think the east comes down to those two. Mayfield is Mayfield, but I think someone from the west CAN knock them off and I think that the 4 legit teams from the east can all be competitive in Bowling Green. I think the Cal top 10 represents just that that.

1 is clear cut
2-4 could flip flop any of 3 ways.
5-7 same could be said and really 8-10 as well. I think this is the best single A has been across the boared within te top 10.
I think after the top 5 or 6 it gets really bad.
I'm a huge Prestonsburg fan, but no way they are #20 in the state. I agree with EKU.
Looking @ the 3A Cal Preps I think it sets pretty close to correct.
http://calpreps.com/2014/ratings/Kentuck...ion.htm#3A

2 - 4 Look interchangeable at this point to me.
Prestonsburg, in the Lit ratings, benefitted more from playing and losing to Pikeville than Pikeville winning did, basically. Beyond ridiculous. But like has been said, they're just rankings. A few more games will start to shake things out a little better.
EKUAlum05 Wrote:The fact that playing out of state teams throws it out of whack is proof in itself how flawed the Lit Ratings are


Right now I think the Calpreps rating look a lot better:
1A
http://calpreps.com/2014/ratings/Kentucky_division.htm

Overall
http://calpreps.com/2014/ratings/Kentucky_all.htm

I truly like these more and think these are a lot more accurate when broken down into classes, but IMO, they still are off in a couple spots such as Pulaski County and Bell County in the overall picks. Not saying that Bell should be ahead of Pulaski, just saying I feel they both are two better teams in the overall rankings than the rankings show. I do however agree more with the individual classes.
Mountain Lion 4 Life Wrote:I truly like these more and think these are a lot more accurate when broken down into classes, but IMO, they still are off in a couple spots such as Pulaski County and Bell County in the overall picks. Not saying that Bell should be ahead of Pulaski, just saying I feel they both are two better teams in the overall rankings than the rankings show. I do however agree more with the individual classes.

I agree.
Pulaski I think is definitely undervalued.

Bell though has a couple things at play.
1) First and foremost perception of South Pittsburg, TN. IN a lot of the opinion polls I think Kentuckians have valued South Pitt a little more due to what we have been told and their past success. The computers though hate them and have South Pitt valued about the same as Paintsville or Shelby Valley. I dont think that is accurate at all.

Truth is I think South Pitt is somewhere in the middle this year. Bell's win to most (including myself), when it happened, was comparable to beating a Frankfort, Beechwood, or something similar. It appears South Pitt is more comparable to a team like a Danville. A good win...but not a signature win.

2) The rest of Bell's wins were against very weak teams... and that doesnt help them since they finished so low last year in a "down" year.

To be honest, I think Calpreps does have them lower than they should..but I could also see Bell being a touch over valued in these public opinion polls especially if South Pitt isn't as good as people have been led to believe.
No way P burg should be in this poll .
There isn't any full proof system. If there was we wouldn't have to play the games on the field.
Usually the top 3 are competitive with each other or could be hypethitically. Then 4-7 are generally the same way (with not one of them having a real chance of knocking the top 3 off. Then 8-15 are many timea on a level field. Then the rest are just generally teams that struggle to even field a team year in and year out. Thisyear Idk if all that is the case. Here is how i look at it.

1st level Mayfield
2nd level Frankfort, Pikeville, Williamsbrg
3rd level Beechwood, Russellville, Raceland
4th level Hazard, Fairview

Imo, these 9 are the only ones with a real shot at being in BG and all being ranked in the order they appear. BW is not BW. They are down, even with what they returned. They just cant seem to put it together. But they are better than many believe they are.

Mayfield is the clear cut number 1 team in 1A. But, unlike most years, i feel like the next 2 on the list, Frankfort, Pikeville and possibly Williamsburg, have the pieces they need to POSSIBLY knock Mayfield off. I think Pikeville stands the best shot of that. But looking into that 3rd tier(Mayfield on their own tier), they could all knock off the 2nd tier teams. I think through the top 9 there are some potential upsets possible. Usually its the top 3 play for the title and the its a battle with the next 3 or 4 teams to finish as state runner up. I dont think that is the case this year.
I really don't like hearing us all by ourselves. 2011 is still too fresh in my mind.
Well i still feel tht MF is better than all of us right now. But as the season is going along, within 3 weeks, i have seen Williamaburg due as they should, Pikeville show guts, a really good run game and several atheletes that simply havent been needed yet and a Raceland team that I thought would get blown out by a solid 4A squad full of atheletes and strength, beat themselves with turnovers in the redzone. Hazard rebounded with a nice win over Letcher Co and Frankfort has looked really good as well. So all of the east teams, imo are MUCH better, than last year. So its going to be interesting to see how the season shakes out.
Hazard always gets better as the season progreses.
Bac, y'all might as well pack it up and start basketball practice. 64 has already told you that y'all don't stand a chance.
Just get ahold of Riherd and have em post

Williamsburg: Eleventy Billion
The World: notta
64SUR Wrote:Does this mean 6A McCracken County is rank #6 in the state...Just curious. :dontthink

:popcorn:
According to Khsaa ap poll, McCracken is now #5 in 6a. With that being the biggest class, I don't think it's too far off. But, like I have said, it's early. These ratings will update many times before they are really good.