04-19-2012, 04:36 PM
Eastern Conference
East No.1 and No.2 seed: Miami clinched the No.2 seed Wednesday with a win over Toronto. Chicago can clinch the No.1 seed in the East with a win over Miami Thursday night. With the Knicks locked into the seven seed in the highest probability, and the Bucks unlikely to make it with their loss Wednesday to (ugh) Washington, that No.1 spot looks like an easy entrance into the second round and could allow Chicago to rest Derrick Rose.
Should Chicago lose, for Miami to get the East No.1, they would have to win out, and Chicago would have to lose on more game. Then both teams finish 49-17, with Miami winning the conference record tiebreaker.
This will not happen, but it is theoretically possible. Regardless, a win tonight for Chicago ends it once and for all.
A loss tonight ensures Miami will start resting players and scheming for the Knicks.
East No.3 seed: Pacers' magic number is one over Boston and Orlando for the three seed, and two over Atlanta. The problem for Indiana is that they lose tiebreakers to Boston, Atlanta, and Orlando should they finish the year 0-4 or 1-3 (should Atlanta tie). That three seed is looking mighty nice as it's likely going to be Orlando. If the Magic collapse completely, and the Knicks land the three vs. Indiana... that's going to get interesting. Indiana was 1-2 vs. New York this year.
East No.4 seed: Boston has clinched the division, can finish no worse than fourth. They need an Indiana collapse and to finish strong to get the 3 and face Orlando. Atlanta remains their most likely first round opponent.
East No.5 seed: Atlanta has a one game lead over Orlando for the 5, which is kind of not what you want at this point. Boston is just not the team anyone wants to face in the East middle. Atlanta's stuck between a rock and a hard place. Tank out and they could still wind up in the 5 thanks to Orlando imploding, win out and because of Indiana's lead they likely still can't overtake the Pacers for the 3. So basically Atlanta's best option is to not worry about it. You know, like almost all the teams are, because NBA teams don't worry about this stuff.
East No.6 seed: This is getting interesting. Orlando has a three-game lead over the Knicks. The Knicks play two lottery teams and a Clippers team that will likely have little to play for next week, along with a big game vs. Atlanta. Orlando plays two playoff teams fighting for their lives, an easy one vs. Charlotte, and finish against Memphis who won't have much to play for in their season finale.
The Knicks own the tiebreaker over the Magic if they manage to catch them. So basically, Orlando can put this to bed with a win over Utah, assuming they can beat Charlotte (and I think we can assume that). The Magic are still heavy favorites, but this keeps getting tighter.
East No.7 seed: New York pretty much has to keep playing, because they have a shot at the 6 to face 3rd seeded Indiana. But if the Magic win against Utah, New York can probably start resting starters, unless they really feel they have a significant advantage vs Miami over Chicago. The Knicks will be dangerous regardless, but with a Magic magic number (er... a magic number for the Magic) of two and a game vs. Charlotte on Orlando's schedule, it may not be worth it for the Knicks to push. But getting Amar'e Stoudemire back this late (might return Friday), means they'll want to get some reps in. Anything can happen with the Knicks, basically.
East No.8 seed: Philadelphia needs to keep winning just to try and get their confidence back. Or their pride. Something.
Milwaukee's loss to Washington was killer. The Sixers have a 2.5 game lead, and a magic number of two with the tiebreaker (which could shift through the remaining schedule, the two split the season series). If they can't beat Washington, that's a pretty clear sign of how their season is going to wind up.
Western Conference
West No.1 and No.2: The Thunder kept pace with the Spurs Wednesday with a win over the Suns, but the Spurs keep resting players and still winning. So that's not fun for the Thunder. OKC has two games against Sacramento with a Lakers tilt in the middle, then a finish against Denver who may or may not have incentive to win that game (and it's imposible to tell where they'll be at this point). The Spurs' game Friday against the Lakers is huge in this, as it will establish who controls their own destiny for the rest of the way.
Neither team is likely worried about Houston, Phoenix, or Utah at this point so the race for the 8th is inconsequential.
West No.3 and No.4: Clippers keep pace but the Lakers' magic number is down to 3 with a win over Golden State for the 4th seed. The Clippers have a magic number of 2 for no worse than 5th, with a tiebreaker over the Grizzlies.
The Clippers don't really have much to fear at this point since they've played so well. Memphis vs. the Clippers could wind up being the best first-round series.
The odds of a Staples Series of Lakers vs. Clippers is looking phenomenally unlikely at this point, which is a shame for most of us, one would think.
West 5th seed: A Denver loss puts Memphis' magic number for no worse than 5th at just one. The odds of them moving up or down are minuscule. The Grizzlies will face either the Lakers or, more likely, the Clippers, barring a miracle or several.
West 6th and 7th seed: Dallas moves ahead of Denver for 6th with a big win over the Rockets and a Denver loss to the Clippers. Dallas can clinch a playoff berth with a win or a loss by Houston.
Denver has a brutal schedule. A desperate Suns team, a desperate Magic team, and a Thunder team fighting for the top spot in the West, before a finish against Minnesota. Denver has just a two-game lead on the 9th and 10th teams Phoenix and Houston. It's going to be a nail-biter to the finish for Denver. They do have tiebreakers over Phoenix and Houston, but not Utah. A multi-way tie works out in Denver' favor if it comes down to that.
West 8th seed: It's your turn on the 8th seed carousel, Utah! Enjoy it while it lasts. Utah moves in a half-game up on Houston and Denver. This thing's going to be tooth and nail to the finish. None of these three teams have any room for error. Houston right now is back on tiebreakers to both Houston and Phoenix. That loss to Dallas Wednesday was crushing. They're going to need some help to get back in.
East No.1 and No.2 seed: Miami clinched the No.2 seed Wednesday with a win over Toronto. Chicago can clinch the No.1 seed in the East with a win over Miami Thursday night. With the Knicks locked into the seven seed in the highest probability, and the Bucks unlikely to make it with their loss Wednesday to (ugh) Washington, that No.1 spot looks like an easy entrance into the second round and could allow Chicago to rest Derrick Rose.
Should Chicago lose, for Miami to get the East No.1, they would have to win out, and Chicago would have to lose on more game. Then both teams finish 49-17, with Miami winning the conference record tiebreaker.
This will not happen, but it is theoretically possible. Regardless, a win tonight for Chicago ends it once and for all.
A loss tonight ensures Miami will start resting players and scheming for the Knicks.
East No.3 seed: Pacers' magic number is one over Boston and Orlando for the three seed, and two over Atlanta. The problem for Indiana is that they lose tiebreakers to Boston, Atlanta, and Orlando should they finish the year 0-4 or 1-3 (should Atlanta tie). That three seed is looking mighty nice as it's likely going to be Orlando. If the Magic collapse completely, and the Knicks land the three vs. Indiana... that's going to get interesting. Indiana was 1-2 vs. New York this year.
East No.4 seed: Boston has clinched the division, can finish no worse than fourth. They need an Indiana collapse and to finish strong to get the 3 and face Orlando. Atlanta remains their most likely first round opponent.
East No.5 seed: Atlanta has a one game lead over Orlando for the 5, which is kind of not what you want at this point. Boston is just not the team anyone wants to face in the East middle. Atlanta's stuck between a rock and a hard place. Tank out and they could still wind up in the 5 thanks to Orlando imploding, win out and because of Indiana's lead they likely still can't overtake the Pacers for the 3. So basically Atlanta's best option is to not worry about it. You know, like almost all the teams are, because NBA teams don't worry about this stuff.
East No.6 seed: This is getting interesting. Orlando has a three-game lead over the Knicks. The Knicks play two lottery teams and a Clippers team that will likely have little to play for next week, along with a big game vs. Atlanta. Orlando plays two playoff teams fighting for their lives, an easy one vs. Charlotte, and finish against Memphis who won't have much to play for in their season finale.
The Knicks own the tiebreaker over the Magic if they manage to catch them. So basically, Orlando can put this to bed with a win over Utah, assuming they can beat Charlotte (and I think we can assume that). The Magic are still heavy favorites, but this keeps getting tighter.
East No.7 seed: New York pretty much has to keep playing, because they have a shot at the 6 to face 3rd seeded Indiana. But if the Magic win against Utah, New York can probably start resting starters, unless they really feel they have a significant advantage vs Miami over Chicago. The Knicks will be dangerous regardless, but with a Magic magic number (er... a magic number for the Magic) of two and a game vs. Charlotte on Orlando's schedule, it may not be worth it for the Knicks to push. But getting Amar'e Stoudemire back this late (might return Friday), means they'll want to get some reps in. Anything can happen with the Knicks, basically.
East No.8 seed: Philadelphia needs to keep winning just to try and get their confidence back. Or their pride. Something.
Milwaukee's loss to Washington was killer. The Sixers have a 2.5 game lead, and a magic number of two with the tiebreaker (which could shift through the remaining schedule, the two split the season series). If they can't beat Washington, that's a pretty clear sign of how their season is going to wind up.
Western Conference
West No.1 and No.2: The Thunder kept pace with the Spurs Wednesday with a win over the Suns, but the Spurs keep resting players and still winning. So that's not fun for the Thunder. OKC has two games against Sacramento with a Lakers tilt in the middle, then a finish against Denver who may or may not have incentive to win that game (and it's imposible to tell where they'll be at this point). The Spurs' game Friday against the Lakers is huge in this, as it will establish who controls their own destiny for the rest of the way.
Neither team is likely worried about Houston, Phoenix, or Utah at this point so the race for the 8th is inconsequential.
West No.3 and No.4: Clippers keep pace but the Lakers' magic number is down to 3 with a win over Golden State for the 4th seed. The Clippers have a magic number of 2 for no worse than 5th, with a tiebreaker over the Grizzlies.
The Clippers don't really have much to fear at this point since they've played so well. Memphis vs. the Clippers could wind up being the best first-round series.
The odds of a Staples Series of Lakers vs. Clippers is looking phenomenally unlikely at this point, which is a shame for most of us, one would think.
West 5th seed: A Denver loss puts Memphis' magic number for no worse than 5th at just one. The odds of them moving up or down are minuscule. The Grizzlies will face either the Lakers or, more likely, the Clippers, barring a miracle or several.
West 6th and 7th seed: Dallas moves ahead of Denver for 6th with a big win over the Rockets and a Denver loss to the Clippers. Dallas can clinch a playoff berth with a win or a loss by Houston.
Denver has a brutal schedule. A desperate Suns team, a desperate Magic team, and a Thunder team fighting for the top spot in the West, before a finish against Minnesota. Denver has just a two-game lead on the 9th and 10th teams Phoenix and Houston. It's going to be a nail-biter to the finish for Denver. They do have tiebreakers over Phoenix and Houston, but not Utah. A multi-way tie works out in Denver' favor if it comes down to that.
West 8th seed: It's your turn on the 8th seed carousel, Utah! Enjoy it while it lasts. Utah moves in a half-game up on Houston and Denver. This thing's going to be tooth and nail to the finish. None of these three teams have any room for error. Houston right now is back on tiebreakers to both Houston and Phoenix. That loss to Dallas Wednesday was crushing. They're going to need some help to get back in.
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