Used Freeman Ratings to approximate the Following Probability of Victory
in this tournament
district 1
Murray rating=14.5 Rank state= 65 class= 8
game 1 87.77 %
district 73 %
region 29.07 %
semi finals 12.24 %
finals 3.89 %
Caldwell County rating=4.3 Rank state= 98 class= 15
game 1 52.07 %
district 9.11 %
region 3.35 %
semi finals 0.79 %
finals 0.12 %
Crittenden County rating=-11.3 Rank state= 155 class= 26
game 1 27.18 %
district 3.35 %
region 0.23 %
semi finals 0.01 %
finals 0 %
Reidland rating=-21 Rank state= 182 class= 32
game 1 1.83 %
district 0.16 %
region 0.01 %
semi finals 0 %
finals 0 %
Any winner fron this district = 4.01%
district 2
Union County rating=-6.9 Rank state= 152 class= 25
game 1 12.22 %
district 3.19 %
region 0.32 %
semi finals 0.03 %
finals 0 %
Butler County rating=3.4 Rank state= 108 class= 17
game 1 47.92 %
district 7.87 %
region 2.77 %
semi finals 0.61 %
finals 0.09 %
Hancock County rating=-0.6 Rank state= 119 class= 19
game 1 72.81 %
district 18.44 %
region 2.94 %
semi finals 0.49 %
finals 0.05 %
Owensboro Catholic rating=22.2 Rank state= 48 class= 4
game 1 98.16 %
district 82.84 %
region 59.28 %
semi finals 34.45 %
finals 16.34 %
all d2=16.48%
district 3
Glasgow rating=24.3 Rank state= 34 class= 2
game 1 90.36 %
district 63.78 %
region 51.36 %
semi finals 31.7 %
finals 16.45 %
Metcalfe County rating=-31.7 Rank state= 206 class= 36
game 1 1.33 %
district 0.01 %
region 0 %
semi finals 0 %
finals 0 %
Clinton County rating=-51.4 Rank state= 221 class= 39
game 1 0.47 %
district 0 %
region 0 %
semi finals 0 %
finals 0 %
Green County rating=12 Rank state= 91 class= 13
game 1 63.26 %
district 39.31 %
region 12.47 %
semi finals 4.54 %
finals 1.24 %
all d3=17.69%
district 4
Washington County rating=0 Rank state= 113 class= 18
game 1 9.63 %
district 1.9 %
region 0.59 %
semi finals 0.1 %
finals 0.01 %
DeSales rating=6.1 Rank state= 99 class= 16
game 1 36.73 %
district 17.95 %
region 3.9 %
semi finals 1 %
finals 0.18 %
Christian Academy rating=6.7 Rank state= 88 class= 11
game 1 99.52 %
district 42.73 %
region 9.67 %
semi finals 2.59 %
finals 0.5 %
Bardstown rating=15 Rank state= 74 class= 9
game 1 98.66 %
district 34.17 %
region 21.86 %
semi finals 9.27 %
finals 3.04 %
all d4=3.73%
district 5
Owen County rating=18.9 Rank state= 51 class= 5
game 1 92.12 %
district 50.11 %
region 17.07 %
semi finals 9.72 %
finals 4.55 %
Carroll County rating=-0.5 Rank state= 120 class= 20
game 1 14.01 %
district 2.58 %
region 0.25 %
semi finals 0.05 %
finals 0 %
Gallatin County rating=-14.3 Rank state= 176 class= 30
game 1 1.83 %
district 0.3 %
region 0.01 %
semi finals 0 %
finals 0 %
Walton-Verona rating=6.9 Rank state= 90 class= 12
game 1 74.95 %
district 9.77 %
region 2.53 %
semi finals 0.82 %
finals 0.19 %
all d5 = 4.74%
district 6
Newport Central Catholic rating=28.9 Rank state= 17 class= 1
game 1 98.16 %
district 88.55 %
region 63.49 %
semi finals 48.24 %
finals 32.47 %
Lloyd Memorial rating=-5 Rank state= 132 class= 22
game 1 25.04 %
district 1.36 %
region 0.14 %
semi finals 0.02 %
finals 0 %
Holy Cross - Cov rating=19.2 Rank state= 62 class= 7
game 1 85.98 %
district 46.4 %
region 16.07 %
semi finals 9.25 %
finals 4.38 %
Newport rating=-7.8 Rank state= 151 class= 24
game 1 7.87 %
district 0.52 %
region 0.02 %
semi finals 0 %
finals 0 %
all d6 = 36.85 %
district 7
Somerset rating=17.8 Rank state= 47 class= 3
game 1 95.85 %
district 50.08 %
region 41.13 %
semi finals 14.26 %
finals 6.34 %
Lexington Christian rating=4.6 Rank state= 83 class= 10
game 1 82.97 %
district 58.01 %
region 13.34 %
semi finals 1.93 %
finals 0.39 %
Danville rating=19.4 Rank state= 53 class= 6
game 1 82.58 %
district 45.79 %
region 38.53 %
semi finals 14.58 %
finals 6.98 %
Middlesboro rating=-8.2 Rank state= 144 class= 23
game 1 37.38 %
district 11.11 %
region 0.96 %
semi finals 0.04 %
finals 0 %
all d7 = 13.71%
district 8
Betsy Lane rating=-16.3 Rank state= 167 class= 28
game 1 4.14 %
district 0.1 %
region 0.02 %
semi finals 0 %
finals 0 %
Prestonburg rating=2.5 Rank state= 93 class= 14
game 1 17.41 %
district 3.89 %
region 2.11 %
semi finals 0.26 %
finals 0.04 %
Leslie County rating=-2.6 Rank state= 122 class= 21
game 1 62.61 %
district 25.29 %
region 3.42 %
semi finals 0.28 %
finals 0.03 %
Shelby Valley rating=-12.6 Rank state= 158 class= 27
game 1 17.02 %
district 5.58 %
region 0.33 %
semi finals 0.01 %
finals 0 %
all d8 = 0.07%
Correction
Ratings and Odds data above should be OK
Rankings were based on week 11 not 12 data
new RANKINGS are:
1 Newport Central Catholic 28.9 (state= 21)
2 Glasgow 24.3 (state= 36)
3 Owensboro Catholic 22.2 (state= 41)
4 Danville 19.4 (state= 47)
5 Holy Cross - Cov 19.2 (state= 48)
6 Owen County 18.9 (state= 50)
7 Somerset 17.8 (state= 54)
8 Bardstown 15 (state= 61)
9 Murray 14.5 (state= 67)
10 Green County 12 (state= 74)
11 Walton-Verona 6.9 (state= 89)
12 Christian Academy 6.7 (state= 90)
13 DeSales 6.1 (state= 94)
14 Lexington Christian 4.6 (state= 98)
15 Caldwell County 4.3 (state= 101)
16 Butler County 3.4 (state= 106)
17 Prestonburg 2.5 (state= 109)
18 Washington County 0 (state= 115)
19 Carroll County -0.5 (state= 118)
20 Hancock County -0.6 (state= 119)
21 Leslie County -2.6 (state= 128)
22 Lloyd Memorial -5 (state= 138)
23 Union County -6.9 (state= 146)
24 Newport -7.8 (state= 150)
25 Middlesboro -8.2 (state= 152)
26 Crittenden County -11.3 (state= 161)
27 Shelby Valley -12.6 (state= 165)
28 Gallatin County -14.3 (state= 170)
29 Betsy Lane -16.3 (state= 176)
30 Fort Knox -18.1 (state= 178)
31 Bishop Brossart -20.6 (state= 180)
32 Reidland -21 (state= 181)
33 Todd County Central -21.8 (state= 183)
34 Ballard Memorial -25.9 (state= 189)
35 Shawnee -30.9 (state= 198)
36 Metcalfe County -31.7 (state= 201)
37 Trimble County -34.4 (state= 207)
38 McLean County -38.4 (state= 210)
39 Clinton County -51.4 (state= 220)
Glasgow only 4.6 ratings points from top
OCath is right there also
3 of the top 6 come from Region 3
HCC and NCC are closer than ever
should be a good tournament
WeBelieve Wrote:Correction
Ratings and Odds data above should be OK
Rankings were based on week 11 not 12 data
new RANKINGS are:
1 Newport Central Catholic 28.9 (state= 21)
2 Glasgow 24.3 (state= 36)
3 Owensboro Catholic 22.2 (state= 41)
4 Danville 19.4 (state= 47)
5 Holy Cross - Cov 19.2 (state= 48)
6 Owen County 18.9 (state= 50)
7 Somerset 17.8 (state= 54)
8 Bardstown 15 (state= 61)
9 Murray 14.5 (state= 67)
10 Green County 12 (state= 74)
11 Walton-Verona 6.9 (state= 89)
12 Christian Academy 6.7 (state= 90)
13 DeSales 6.1 (state= 94)
14 Lexington Christian 4.6 (state= 98)
15 Caldwell County 4.3 (state= 101)
16 Butler County 3.4 (state= 106)
17 Prestonburg 2.5 (state= 109)
18 Washington County 0 (state= 115)
19 Carroll County -0.5 (state= 118)
20 Hancock County -0.6 (state= 119)
21 Leslie County -2.6 (state= 128)
22 Lloyd Memorial -5 (state= 138)
23 Union County -6.9 (state= 146)
24 Newport -7.8 (state= 150)
25 Middlesboro -8.2 (state= 152)
26 Crittenden County -11.3 (state= 161)
27 Shelby Valley -12.6 (state= 165)
28 Gallatin County -14.3 (state= 170)
29 Betsy Lane -16.3 (state= 176)
30 Fort Knox -18.1 (state= 178)
31 Bishop Brossart -20.6 (state= 180)
32 Reidland -21 (state= 181)
33 Todd County Central -21.8 (state= 183)
34 Ballard Memorial -25.9 (state= 189)
35 Shawnee -30.9 (state= 198)
36 Metcalfe County -31.7 (state= 201)
37 Trimble County -34.4 (state= 207)
38 McLean County -38.4 (state= 210)
39 Clinton County -51.4 (state= 220)
Glasgow only 4.6 ratings points from top
OCath is right there also
3 of the top 6 come from Region 3
HCC and NCC are closer than ever
should be a good tournament
Green Co. is 2-3 TD's better now than they were against Glasgow and Danville with the change @ QB. Glasgow's starting QB has not been playing since the seizure he had against Green a few weeks ago, so that may hinder Glasgow's chances at a title and open up that part of the bracket. I hope the kid is ok and is healthy enough to play, but if not, it lowers Glasgow into the rest of the upper tier 2a teams.