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NFL Draft Thoughts
#1
Anyone care to share their thoughts on the winners and losers on Draft Night or grades for any teams? I'll share mine shortly.
#2
As a Steelers fan, I am very happy with this draft. They have the potential to be really good soon if Matt Canada does not mess up the offense.
[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
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#3
I follow a few teams, with one of those being the Texans. They've been an absolute dumpster fire for reasons that have been discussed in great detail (Hopkins trade, Watson fiasco, etc.). The rebuild is going to take more than one year, as there's a reason that they currently share Vegas' lowest predicted win total for next season even after the Draft. The biggest factor in their long term outlook is ownership and management. I don't see their current situation being one that's going to attract free agents, so if they're going to acquire game-changing talent, it's likely going to be through the Draft.

I think CJ Stroud was the right pick at #2 if they were going to go with a quarterback, but I'm not in love with him. The history of #2 QB drafted in years where signal-callers have went back-to-back to open the draft isn't encouraging either.

I absolutely love Will Anderson being picked at #3, but they had to give up a lot of their abundant draft capital to get the only player to start at linebacker as a true freshman for Saban at Alabama. With Anderson and Stingley, you have two young game changers at crucial positions.

Houston traded away their 2024 First and Third Round picks to move to #3, so sitting Stroud behind Davis Mills and tanking doesn't really do anything to benefit them in next year's draft order.

In the NFL, Stroud's pockets won't nearly as clean and his receivers won't possess superior talent. I don't see him as one of the Top 10 QBs in the league for some time, and even at that point, I'd think he'd have toward the end of that list; I'm most worried, however, about the fact that he wasn't the sure-fire #1 pick over a 5'10 QB whose measureables aren't the prototype of what organizations look to draft. Even though he's a Buckeye, I hope that history shows my concerns with his ability to translate to the NFL were misplaced, or that a franchise whose recent history is filled with terrible decisions is able to reverse course and build their team to the point that their skill positions mask his deficiencies.

The depth of the 2024 QB Draft class will likely have a huge say in whether it would have been better to take Will Anderson at #2, a receiver such as Jaxon Smith-Njigba or defensive player at #12, and then go through another year of tanking with Davis Mills at QB in hopes of getting the best QB in 2024 to go along with the first rounder that they'd acquired from the Browns. At the same time, not having an early first round pick next season could give them more time to develop Stroud, as he won't have to look over his shoulder and no one will be calling for them to draft his replacement in 2024 unless the wheels fall off as Cleveland plays a tough divisional schedule.

I'm a bigger fan of the Xavier Hutchinson (WR, Iowa St.) pick and lower on the Tank Dell (WR, Houston) pick than analysts seem to be. I was a fan of Henry To'o To'o (LB, Alabama) in college and generally agree with the consensus on Dylan Horton (DE, TCU).

In all, I like the fact that they took a big swing and are at least trying to form an identity. The draft was balanced between offensive and defensive players, which is a sound strategy for a team with so many holes. I'll give them an B+ and hope that the fact that I don't have to sit through another year of out-right tanking is more comforting than thinking that Houston made a gamble and mortgaged the future with little to no return.


Best Case Scenario:
Stroud takes the starting job late in the season and shows promise and develops a rapport with John Metchie, who has made a full recovery from his bout with leukemia and looks like a high-end #2 receiver for any franchise. The offensive line is solid and opens holes for Pierce while keeping Stroud upright and healthy and the team isn't repeatedly blown out so often that morale is damaged. The Colts suffer from another abysmal season and the Titans can't recapture their previous magic, leaving the Texans as the strongest competitor to Trevor Lawrence and Jacksonville. The wheels fall off as Cleveland loses handfuls of games in a tough division and the Texans go into the 2024 Draft with a Top 7 pick that lets them take a #1 target for Stroud or another stud to add to a nasty and improving defense. The team's ownership and management situation resolves and the city becomes a viable destination for free agents whose signatures could push the team over the top as Stroud and Anderson play out the ends of their cap-friendly contracts.


Worst Case Scenario:
Stroud doesn't develop, whether from being pushed too early, injured, or just not possessing the talent of a starting NFL QB. The fans suffer through an abysmal season with the sting of having the top draft pick go to another team. Stingley is again bitten by the injury bug. Management panics and makes more terrible moves (at the behest of the owners). The rift between the fans and ownership increases. Ownership sees firing another staff as a way of saving face and does so, meaning that the cycle begins again and the resentment only grows.
#4
I thought my Bengals had a solid draft, addressing positions of need. I thought the pick of Chase Brown, running back from Illinois in the 5th round, was especially on the money. I was impressed by him every time I saw him last year, and the Bengals have lost Samaji Perine to free agency, and may have to part ways with Joe Mixon for salary cap reasons. The Bengals have a real championship opportunity this year and next, before they start having to make really hard decisions on contracts. They will probably be relevant as long as Joe Burrow is there and healthy, but they need to get it done soon.
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#5
(05-06-2023, 08:19 PM)Van Hagar Wrote: I thought my Bengals had a solid draft, addressing positions of need. I thought the pick of Chase Brown, running back from Illinois in the 5th round, was especially on the money. I was impressed by him every time I saw him last year, and the Bengals have lost Samaji Perine to free agency, and may have to part ways with Joe Mixon for salary cap reasons. The Bengals have a real championship opportunity this year and next, before they start having to make really hard decisions on contracts. They will probably be relevant as long as Joe Burrow is there and healthy, but they need to get it done soon.

Solid draft.  Like you, I love the Brown pick. Good blocking back, as well.  Murphy could be a steal. The Alabama kid is smart and hard-nosed. Wouldn't be surprised to see him get on the field. Good draft.  Their roster is solid. Gonna be fun seeing Joe work with an extra second. Finally some depth on the line. Collins looks in great shape and has a great attitude. Carman was a beast in Buffalo. Jonah has something to prove. Deep, talented roster!!!
#6
Shows what I know about NFL talent. Stroud has been a stud so far this season and has a bright future. I'm guessing that the Panthers would like a do-over.
#7
(06-10-2023, 10:36 PM)Old School Hound Wrote:
(05-06-2023, 08:19 PM)Van Hagar Wrote: I thought my Bengals had a solid draft, addressing positions of need. I thought the pick of Chase Brown, running back from Illinois in the 5th round, was especially on the money. I was impressed by him every time I saw him last year, and the Bengals have lost Samaji Perine to free agency, and may have to part ways with Joe Mixon for salary cap reasons. The Bengals have a real championship opportunity this year and next, before they start having to make really hard decisions on contracts. They will probably be relevant as long as Joe Burrow is there and healthy, but they need to get it done soon.

Solid draft.  Like you, I love the Brown pick. Good blocking back, as well.  Murphy could be a steal. The Alabama kid is smart and hard-nosed. Wouldn't be surprised to see him get on the field. Good draft.  Their roster is solid. Gonna be fun seeing Joe work with an extra second. Finally some depth on the line. Collins looks in great shape and has a great attitude. Carman was a beast in Buffalo. Jonah has something to prove. Deep, talented roster!!!

Bengals have had a rough year and were limited by injuries to Burrow.

I don't see them catching Baltimore, meaning they'd be playing on the road during Wildcard Weekend if they were able to make the playoffs.

The huge issue of Burrow's health and durability aside, if the Bengals weren't going to make a deep run, it's always good to have a high draft pick. Their last two wins now have them projected to pick at #18; having only five wins would have probay put them between the 7th and 11th. This might not seem significant, but the difference in expected returns between those slots are. With Minnesota, @Pittsburgh, @Kansas City, and Cleveland remaining, it isn't a stretch to see them losing out.

They may have some confidence in Browning as a backup, but he'll need to be resigned. He could have already pulled a Matt Flynn and overly inflated his market rate versus his actual worth by playing well in a limited window.

Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Irv Smith, OT Jonah Williams and DT D.J. Reader also enter free agency this offseason.

Do they punt on a backup QB if Browning's ask is too high? I think so unless he plays well and they have more concerns about Burrow than we know. There are just too many other areas where those dollars could be better spent and the window is closing quickly.

Absent movement in free agency, I'd expect them to look at OL prospects, but Round 1 is probably too early to pull the trigger on a guard to replace Volson. Their defense has been roughed up this season so there are some real areas of need there too, but this is also where they invested a ton of draft capital last season.
#8
As a lifelong Bengal fan, when Burrow went down my initial reaction was I sorta hope the qb situation is awful, and we lose out, getting a much better draft pick and getting the (usually) easier fourth place schedule for Joe’s return next year. But now after winning two straight, and looking really good on offense doing it (and here I credit Zac Taylor and his staff for putting Browning in a position to be successful. He obviously has some ability, but your Matt Flynn reference I think is right on the money, his true value will be inflated and he will get overpaid somewhere else. Good for him though if that happens.) The Bengals offensive roster is full of game changers, including rookie Chase Brown, who is healthy now. That’s a late- round pick OSH and I both loved in last year’s draft. Wherever the Bengals fall on the draft board, obviously they need to continue to improve the o-line, and shore up the back end of the defense, which has taken a step back this year, largely in part I think to losing the outstanding Jesse Bates to free agency.
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#9
Looks like things went well for the Texans. I definitely understood Stroud, but it would have been very bold told predict the type of record breaking numbers that he's put up.

Am glad I was wrong for not being as hyped about Tank Dell as others.

Barring a severe injury, regardless of what happens this weekend in Baltimore, this season has gone about as well as you could realistically expect for the Texans. 

Here's to hoping they get a disruptive interior lineman that can take their defense to the next level and also add some complimentary offensive pieces during the offseason.

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