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Full Version: The Perfect Storm For The UK Upset
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I posted this on The Cat's Pause but would like to share it here.

Alright, I think we all accept the fact that UK is a heavy underdog and it would take something short of a miracle to defeat the mighty Gators. UF is loaded; they have the best player in the nation, their entire defense back, and more speed then the Breeder's Cup. With that said, as a UK fan, I a forced to search for the silver lining and thus have composed a laundry list of my Top 10 factors and stats that will at least give you that shimmer of hope as you tailgate Saturday.

1. Pearls Before Swine- Florida is SICK, both in the figurative and literal manner. Meyer is calling it "crisis level". Though most players were sick when they played UT, there is still hope that maybe two or three key Gators aren't in their right mind to play and maybe they drop a key pass on 3rd Down, fumble on a run, or blow a coverage. Additionally, Gator coaches also appear to be sick so anytime that can be taken away from their gameplanning and film study definitely helps UK's cause.

2. Lane Kiffin is an Idiot- Though the game is over, Meyer and Kiffin continue to dominate the headlines as they shoot pointed verbal jabs back and forth. This should at least carry into Wednesday, and hopefully by that point people will start realizing that UF's next game following UK is that much anticipated battle in Death Valley.

3. Gator Trap- Speaking of that game... Florida is coming off a much anticipated, heavily discussed game last week and with LSU up next, we meet the beautiful paradox called the "trap game". As pointed above the media still thinks UF and UT are playing,,, hopefully since Washington beat USC that will immediately predicate discussion about UF's trip to Death Valley and how LSU's narrow win over the Huskies is now a signature win and that this game will be a war.

4. Saturday Night's Alright for Upsets- Saturday, evening kickoff, home, #1 team, national television. Seems like I have heard this scenario before for UK?

5. Nutt Re-visited- Week 4 in 2008, Ole Miss stuns flat Gators.

6. Film This!- UK's bye week, coupled with the Week 1 blowout, and the 3rd Quarter disaster vs. UL means that the Gators truly only has 6 Quarters worth of viable film study of our offense. I think we all agree that this yea's UK offense is a completely different animal than last year, lack of film makes it increasingly hard for UF to judge what UK has.

7. The Golden Egg- UK is notorious for scyzophrenic play under Brooks. The Cats are amazing one week and barely worthy of being in the Big East the next. The good thing is usually after UK lays the proverbial egg under Brooks they rebound in their next key game vs. a SEC foe or in a bowl to play well. Last year UK squeezes by MTSU and their next SEC game is #2 Alabama on the road. The Cats play USCjr in a game riddled with turnovers and missed opportunities, the next week they come from behind to beat Arkansas. UK stinks it up in Knoxville but rally to win the Liberty Bowl. UK gets owned by Florida, then go on the road and beat MSU. For all intensive purposes UL was an egg.

8. Revenge is Sweet- LSU dominates us in Death Valley, we shock the Tigers at Commonwealth. 2005, Georgia beats us handidly in Athens, 2006 the goalposts come down at C-wealth.

9. The Brooks and Brown Conservatory- Not only does UF only have 6 Quarters of offensive film and only 7 Quarters of defense, but UK's play calling has been as vanilla a Twinky convention. In UK's first two games they have rarely blitzed, rarely went vertical passing, ran only 3 plays out of the Wildcat, and have not used any trick plays on offense or special teams. Does this mean UK will "open it up" against the gators? Doubtful. Does it give you hope that the Cats have been saving a little razzle dazzle for the ramblin' reptiles? Yes.

10. Get Coordinated- The biggest story this year that noone has really touched on is the loss of Dan Mullen and it's effect. Florida fans will say "Meyer runs the offense anyway", but it is hard to ignore UF's rocky start vs. lowly Troy and last weeks Tennessee snoozefest. Can Tennessee's ballhog offense and Monte Kiffin's defensive scheme (which helped exploit a couple weaknesses FWIW) be credited, or maybe, just maybe, the loss of Mullen and Mr. Do-it-all Percy harvin have a bigger effect in Gainesville than has been seen? I have no illusions of UK shutting down the Gator offense, but it could be plausible for UK to hold UF under 30 points and with the help of a few turnovers be in position to be competitive in this game which is all you ask for when trying to spring the upset of the year.

So there you have it. All things considered if Florida was on top of their game it would be a near impossible task, but as we have seen this football season strange things happen every week and no team is immune.
I hope you are right.....
nicely done EKU I love reading your posts very well researched and factual and does give glimmer of hope
EKUAlum05 Wrote:I posted this on The Cat's Pause but would like to share it here.

Alright, I think we all accept the fact that UK is a heavy underdog and it would take something short of a miracle to defeat the mighty Gators. UF is loaded; they have the best player in the nation, their entire defense back, and more speed then the Breeder's Cup. With that said, as a UK fan, I a forced to search for the silver lining and thus have composed a laundry list of my Top 10 factors and stats that will at least give you that shimmer of hope as you tailgate Saturday.

1. Pearls Before Swine- Florida is SICK, both in the figurative and literal manner. Meyer is calling it "crisis level". Though most players were sick when they played UT, there is still hope that maybe two or three key Gators aren't in their right mind to play and maybe they drop a key pass on 3rd Down, fumble on a run, or blow a coverage. Additionally, Gator coaches also appear to be sick so anytime that can be taken away from their gameplanning and film study definitely helps UK's cause.

2. Lane Kiffin is an Idiot- Though the game is over, Meyer and Kiffin continue to dominate the headlines as they shoot pointed verbal jabs back and forth. This should at least carry into Wednesday, and hopefully by that point people will start realizing that UF's next game following UK is that much anticipated battle in Death Valley.

3. Gator Trap- Speaking of that game... Florida is coming off a much anticipated, heavily discussed game last week and with LSU up next, we meet the beautiful paradox called the "trap game". As pointed above the media still thinks UF and UT are playing,,, hopefully since Washington beat USC that will immediately predicate discussion about UF's trip to Death Valley and how LSU's narrow win over the Huskies is now a signature win and that this game will be a war.

4. Saturday Night's Alright for Upsets- Saturday, evening kickoff, home, #1 team, national television. Seems like I have heard this scenario before for UK?

5. Nutt Re-visited- Week 4 in 2008, Ole Miss stuns flat Gators.

6. Film This!- UK's bye week, coupled with the Week 1 blowout, and the 3rd Quarter disaster vs. UL means that the Gators truly only has 6 Quarters worth of viable film study of our offense. I think we all agree that this yea's UK offense is a completely different animal than last year, lack of film makes it increasingly hard for UF to judge what UK has.

7. The Golden Egg- UK is notorious for scyzophrenic play under Brooks. The Cats are amazing one week and barely worthy of being in the Big East the next. The good thing is usually after UK lays the proverbial egg under Brooks they rebound in their next key game vs. a SEC foe or in a bowl to play well. Last year UK squeezes by MTSU and their next SEC game is #2 Alabama on the road. The Cats play USCjr in a game riddled with turnovers and missed opportunities, the next week they come from behind to beat Arkansas. UK stinks it up in Knoxville but rally to win the Liberty Bowl. UK gets owned by Florida, then go on the road and beat MSU. For all intensive purposes UL was an egg.

8. Revenge is Sweet- LSU dominates us in Death Valley, we shock the Tigers at Commonwealth. 2005, Georgia beats us handidly in Athens, 2006 the goalposts come down at C-wealth.

9. The Brooks and Brown Conservatory- Not only does UF only have 6 Quarters of offensive film and only 7 Quarters of defense, but UK's play calling has been as vanilla a Twinky convention. In UK's first two games they have rarely blitzed, rarely went vertical passing, ran only 3 plays out of the Wildcat, and have not used any trick plays on offense or special teams. Does this mean UK will "open it up" against the gators? Doubtful. Does it give you hope that the Cats have been saving a little razzle dazzle for the ramblin' reptiles? Yes.

10. Get Coordinated- The biggest story this year that noone has really touched on is the loss of Dan Mullen and it's effect. Florida fans will say "Meyer runs the offense anyway", but it is hard to ignore UF's rocky start vs. lowly Troy and last weeks Tennessee snoozefest. Can Tennessee's ballhog offense and Monte Kiffin's defensive scheme (which helped exploit a couple weaknesses FWIW) be credited, or maybe, just maybe, the loss of Mullen and Mr. Do-it-all Percy harvin have a bigger effect in Gainesville than has been seen? I have no illusions of UK shutting down the Gator offense, but it could be plausible for UK to hold UF under 30 points and with the help of a few turnovers be in position to be competitive in this game which is all you ask for when trying to spring the upset of the year.

So there you have it. All things considered if Florida was on top of their game it would be a near impossible task, but as we have seen this football season strange things happen every week and no team is immune.

I'm hoping that #9 is true. Partially because it would explain why UK looked so bad in the Louisville game. I have been hearing on the radio sports shows, that several people think UK has been holding back on their play book, in hopes that they can throw some unexpected stuff at Florida.

I think the flu might have a small effect on Florida, but it won't be anything major. Keep in mind that the flu is spreading strongly everywhere, not just Florida, so we can't rule out a few UK players being sick either.

I think a major factor in this game might end up being the weather. WKYT has been predicting rain for the game all week. You have to assume (or hope) that the rain will slow down and/or weaken Florida's offensive fire power, thus making the game closer than expected. And if UK can keep it close, they have a shot.