04-01-2005, 07:15 PM
Here is a colum on espn.com about why Illinois will win the NCAA tourny...tell me your thoughts on this one
Seriously ... you think the Illini have come this far not to walk away with "One Shining Moment" ringing in their ears? By Final Four time every team is talking destiny â but the Illini are walking it.
They've owned this season â lock, stock and Dee Brown mouthpiece. It's merely been the most impressive single season since Duke went wire-to-wire as No. 1 in 1992 and repeated as national champions.
The stars have aligned: the 100th season of Illinois basketball, the looong undefeated run, the death of Bruce Weber's mom at the Big Ten tournament, the status as the winningest NCAA Tournament program without a title ... who is going to take a charge from that runaway freight train of storylines?
No team has been more consistent, more purposeful and more focused than the Illini. They've lost one lousy game all year, on a 3-pointer with five seconds left by a dude having a career night in a game they otherwise led throughout. They've won 36 times, trampling quality non-conference opponents and a Big Ten that, at least at the top, was a little better than we all believed.
And when all appeared lost last Saturday night against Arizona in Chicago, Illinois showcased its greatest weapon of all: Survival instinct. These guys simply hate to lose.
Why They'll Win It
Start with that most precious of commodities in 2004-05: experience. It's been a year of, by and for the upperclassmen, and every team in the Final Four has plenty of them. But Illinois is the only one that has nothing but juniors and seniors among its top six.
Senior Luther Head is the leading scorer. Junior Dee Brown is the Big Ten MVP. Junior Deron Williams is probably their best player (Rick Pitino has not stopped raving about Williams all week). Junior post men James Augustine and Roger Powell are overshadowed but are highly effective on the glass and playing off the guards â running pick-and-rolls or sliding into open spots for passes off penetration. Senior sixth man Jack Ingram has shown a great knack for hitting big shots.
Befitting an experienced team with great guards, the Illini take care of the ball better than anyone else. They commit just 11.2 turnovers per game, while dishing out 18.6 assists. Powell is the only guy in the top six whose assist-to-turnover ratio is worse than 1:1.
And the chances of an off shooting night are pretty slim. Illinois shoots 48.7 percent from the field, 39.7 percent from 3-point range. The Illini also make 72.8 percent from the foul line. They take a lot of perimeter jumpers â but they also make a lot of them.
Bruce Weber's team also is comfortable playing at different paces. You want to slow it down, junk it up and grind it out? Hey, they spent all season in the Big Ten, refusing to allow more than 65 points in a game over the regular season's final month. You want to rip and run? I think those guards would be happy to challenge anyone to a series of end-to-end foot races.
Provided Augustine and Powell do enough offensively inside to keep defenses honest, it's hard to see Illinois being shut down. And although the Illini have allowed teams to shoot a decent percentage against them, they won't allow you much peace with the ball. Get careless and it's a layup at the other end.
Who Could Stop Them?
Any of the other three teams in the field could theoretically beat the Illini. But it won't be easy.
Louisville will be able to match their strength on the perimeter. Francisco Garcia and Larry O'Bannon could frustrate Illinois' guards with their length. If Cardinals big men Ellis Myles, Juan Diego Palacios and Otis George can avoid foul trouble, they should be able to neutralize Augustine and Powell inside. And Louisville would be a dangerous team to get into a shooting contest with.
The Cards might have as strong a will to win as the Illini â but will they play as smart if the game comes down to a final five minutes of execution at crunch time? The guess is no.
North Carolina would literally be the biggest threat, because it's not hard to imagine Sean May and Marvin Williams giving the Illini a pounding inside. (If Ohio State's Terence Dials could do it, so can they.) The question is whether the Tar Heels want it as badly as the Illini. From all apparent evidence, the answer is no.
Michigan State would be a stretch. The Spartans have to remember the strafing they took in their own gym Feb. 1, which might be hard to overcome. But if Paul Davis continues his tournament run, he could pose a big matchup problem inside.
Maybe Bruce Weber will have a fit of Final Four rookie nerves and make a brainlock move. Maybe Dee Brown will have a bad braid weave and it will affect his shot. Maybe Illinois is doomed by the hoop gods to wear the millstone of Best Program Without A Title.
But don't bet against these guys. They just don't like to lose.
Seriously ... you think the Illini have come this far not to walk away with "One Shining Moment" ringing in their ears? By Final Four time every team is talking destiny â but the Illini are walking it.
They've owned this season â lock, stock and Dee Brown mouthpiece. It's merely been the most impressive single season since Duke went wire-to-wire as No. 1 in 1992 and repeated as national champions.
The stars have aligned: the 100th season of Illinois basketball, the looong undefeated run, the death of Bruce Weber's mom at the Big Ten tournament, the status as the winningest NCAA Tournament program without a title ... who is going to take a charge from that runaway freight train of storylines?
No team has been more consistent, more purposeful and more focused than the Illini. They've lost one lousy game all year, on a 3-pointer with five seconds left by a dude having a career night in a game they otherwise led throughout. They've won 36 times, trampling quality non-conference opponents and a Big Ten that, at least at the top, was a little better than we all believed.
And when all appeared lost last Saturday night against Arizona in Chicago, Illinois showcased its greatest weapon of all: Survival instinct. These guys simply hate to lose.
Why They'll Win It
Start with that most precious of commodities in 2004-05: experience. It's been a year of, by and for the upperclassmen, and every team in the Final Four has plenty of them. But Illinois is the only one that has nothing but juniors and seniors among its top six.
Senior Luther Head is the leading scorer. Junior Dee Brown is the Big Ten MVP. Junior Deron Williams is probably their best player (Rick Pitino has not stopped raving about Williams all week). Junior post men James Augustine and Roger Powell are overshadowed but are highly effective on the glass and playing off the guards â running pick-and-rolls or sliding into open spots for passes off penetration. Senior sixth man Jack Ingram has shown a great knack for hitting big shots.
Befitting an experienced team with great guards, the Illini take care of the ball better than anyone else. They commit just 11.2 turnovers per game, while dishing out 18.6 assists. Powell is the only guy in the top six whose assist-to-turnover ratio is worse than 1:1.
And the chances of an off shooting night are pretty slim. Illinois shoots 48.7 percent from the field, 39.7 percent from 3-point range. The Illini also make 72.8 percent from the foul line. They take a lot of perimeter jumpers â but they also make a lot of them.
Bruce Weber's team also is comfortable playing at different paces. You want to slow it down, junk it up and grind it out? Hey, they spent all season in the Big Ten, refusing to allow more than 65 points in a game over the regular season's final month. You want to rip and run? I think those guards would be happy to challenge anyone to a series of end-to-end foot races.
Provided Augustine and Powell do enough offensively inside to keep defenses honest, it's hard to see Illinois being shut down. And although the Illini have allowed teams to shoot a decent percentage against them, they won't allow you much peace with the ball. Get careless and it's a layup at the other end.
Who Could Stop Them?
Any of the other three teams in the field could theoretically beat the Illini. But it won't be easy.
Louisville will be able to match their strength on the perimeter. Francisco Garcia and Larry O'Bannon could frustrate Illinois' guards with their length. If Cardinals big men Ellis Myles, Juan Diego Palacios and Otis George can avoid foul trouble, they should be able to neutralize Augustine and Powell inside. And Louisville would be a dangerous team to get into a shooting contest with.
The Cards might have as strong a will to win as the Illini â but will they play as smart if the game comes down to a final five minutes of execution at crunch time? The guess is no.
North Carolina would literally be the biggest threat, because it's not hard to imagine Sean May and Marvin Williams giving the Illini a pounding inside. (If Ohio State's Terence Dials could do it, so can they.) The question is whether the Tar Heels want it as badly as the Illini. From all apparent evidence, the answer is no.
Michigan State would be a stretch. The Spartans have to remember the strafing they took in their own gym Feb. 1, which might be hard to overcome. But if Paul Davis continues his tournament run, he could pose a big matchup problem inside.
Maybe Bruce Weber will have a fit of Final Four rookie nerves and make a brainlock move. Maybe Dee Brown will have a bad braid weave and it will affect his shot. Maybe Illinois is doomed by the hoop gods to wear the millstone of Best Program Without A Title.
But don't bet against these guys. They just don't like to lose.